Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009

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Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

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860. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:

ShearMap
Looks like that Caribbean wave is headed into 30-40 knots of shear.


It's only hope is to go WNW.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Morn Brian.
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Sounds exciting OZ... wish I could access youtube here at work.. but i will check it out at 2 when i get off
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856. IKE
Quadruplets.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

ShearMap
Looks like that Caribbean wave is headed into 30-40 knots of shear.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11473
Good Morning!

CaribbeanLoop
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11473
You should have named it "Imminent Landfall", that way it would be spelled correctly. :o)

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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey StormW
Are you still going to be on Barometer Bob show tonight?
Do you have a link so I can listen?
hurricanehollow.com
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Quoting IKE:


You must be on IE?


Firefox is the best for its addons. You can't use the HTML codes very effectively for chrome. Chrome users cannot post links or images here.

Only one thing I likbe IE is the fact that you can post WU shear images here.
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Time for the old "reboot" methinks.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
I'm on IE here at work and its fine...hmm
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845. IKE
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
What happened to the blog? It's stretched, no lines separating anyone. It's really weird looking.

Sheri


You must be on IE?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
What happened to the blog? It's stretched, no lines separating anyone. It's really weird looking.

Sheri
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUL 2009 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 11:59:08 N Lon : 139:34:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1009.0mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.0 2.0 2.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -64.4C Cloud Region Temp : -65.2C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************


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Why is there a system in the NE?
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/gexyrfpr.png
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1733
WS... SAL can't FULLY dissipate. SAL can only decrease to low enough levels to prevent substantial drying of the environment around a tropical disturbance then you'll get the engines going.
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Link

Lana perdictions 14% of hurricane in 36 hours
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Quoting cyclonekid:


Thank you guys!! Am rookie. :)


No problem, anytime :)
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This morning its another beautiful full blue sky here in the high desert. Some forecast of "chance of thunderstorms" this afternoon, so the temps will stay down and gardening should be fine. Next week it will be time to journey to Puerto Rico and await the season.
Its a glorious day and I'm happy to be alive.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
Quoting WeatherStudent:
What imminent signs are you seeing, FM? That are telling you that next week the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season will finally shift into full gear? It wouldn't be a bad idea for me to double check and make sure that I have all of my hurricane supplies on stand by, now would it?


Well, the Caribbean is moistening up, and wind shear is decreasing. A series of ICZ enhanced waves are starting to move toward the Caribbean, and vigorous wave is emerging off the African coast. What is significant about this wave is its latitude, because it is independent from the ITCZ. Lastly, the MJO will start to move back into the Atlantic late next week.
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Quoting extreme236:


CPAC name

Quoting btwntx08:

since its at 139.7 w this is likely the last epac update before turning into the cpac side which it may be named lana

Thank you guys!! Am rookie. :)
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1733
Wave over Africa may be more organized than most we've seen, but its not exactly merging off the best spot of the coast and lacks impressive convection.
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Quoting futuremet:


Thanks Msphar..

The primary objective of my analysis was to show that the upper level conditions and various teleconnections are what have been hampering tropical cyclone formation worldwide. People must realize that we were close to having up to 3 named storms already this season. At times, it is a matter of the storm forming at the right place and at the right time. If 90L formed just a bit later, it could have been a named storm before making landfall.


Yea I agree, it isnt like this year has totally been void of systems worthy to track; although some would like you to believe that lol
Quoting msphar:
Futuremet - I was looking at some of your work last night and I must say I was impressed with what I saw. Keep up the good effort.


Thanks Msphar..

The primary objective of my analysis was to show that the upper level conditions and various teleconnections are what have been hampering tropical cyclone formation worldwide. People must realize that we were close to having up to 3 named storms already this season. At times, it is a matter of the storm forming at the right place and at the right time. If 90L formed just a bit later, it could have been a named storm before making landfall.
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Hawaii looks safe for now. The storm track shows little signs of any recurvature and those two gigantic mountains on the Big Island stand as a block to weather from their SE. Looks like the classic fish storm to me.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
828. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


It would be Lana, it depends on where it gets the name, not when it becomes a TD

Thanks so much!!! See I learned something new :D
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1733
Quoting cyclonekid:
Help Anyone!!!

If TD 6-E gets a name, would it be Enrique or Lana? Because I thought that if it would become a Tropical Depression in the East. Pac. it would have and East. Pac. name but since this is so close to 140W...I'M CONFUSED!!!

Help??!!


CPAC name
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Help Anyone!!!

If TD 6-E gets a name, would it be Enrique or Lana? Because I thought that if it would become a Tropical Depression in the East. Pac. it would have and East. Pac. name but since this is so close to 140W...I'M CONFUSED!!!

Help??!!


It would be Lana, it depends on where it gets the name, not when it becomes a TD
Help Anyone!!!

If TD 6-E gets a name, would it be Enrique or Lana? Because I thought that if it would become a Tropical Depression in the East. Pac. it would have and East. Pac. name but since this is so close to 140W...I'M CONFUSED!!!

Help??!!
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1733
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey StormW
Are you still going to be on Barometer Bob show tonight?
Do you have a link so I can listen?

Hey Aussie,
Looks like you were posting about the same time StormW was signing off.
I think this is what you are looking for.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
Futuremet - I was looking at some of your work last night and I must say I was impressed with what I saw. Keep up the good effort.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
The tropics will start activating next week. The wait will be over soon...


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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

Surfers in Hawaii are going to be happier for a few days.
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 30, 2009 ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EDT

Hey StormW
Are you still going to be on Barometer Bob show tonight?
Do you have a link so I can listen?
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Wow! The Tropics are waking up this morning. Much to observe. 42 days to the peak of the season.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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