Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009

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Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

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1310. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


WHO VOTES FOR RED????? ANY TAKERS?


I haven't seen a red all year in the ATL?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Link

ike but the shear tendency shows how the decreasing shear is moving west as well...
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


geez calm down, he hasnt been on all day, there is nothing there

read back a few pages, StormW explains nicely what the situation is.

ok but I have not been on all day I haven't been on from last night
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1307. IKE
Doesn't look too promising.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
GFS has a system now at 144 hours, need to see if it lasts lol


Yep, but we'll have to see if other models come on board.
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1305. IKE
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah i know theres shear out there, just wondering didnt know if it was moving out or not.


I tried to post the shear map. Yeah...30-50 knots of shear ahead of it....no chance.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
GFS has a system now at 144 hours, need to see if it lasts lol
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Quoting IKE:


Look what it's heading for.....



yeah i know theres shear out there, just wondering didnt know if it was moving out or not.
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As I look upon the spot I left, just two years ago this month
I see the emptiness before my eyes, and not much has changed at all

A Hurricane named Katrina paid a visit that fateful day
She brought much death, with destruction to those who stayed, and prayed

I was one of many, who decided to leave in haste
For I have seen all this before, in the savage winds of Mother Nature

Her fury, contains no mercy, for those who decide to stay
Leaving all behind, we sought a safer haven, than the one we left that day

With my children, and only memories, we drove from New Orleans in tears
Before the storm came ashore, and raped the city we loved

Now two years have passed, and so much remains the same
The politicians say a great deal, they all mean so well

But just look around, in between the streets, only the dreams remain
Of what this city once was, and now will never be

R.R. Ruiz
San Antonio

That's all the poetry you'll get from me folks..........maybe.

Evening all.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
FOR WHAT SOME PLEASE TELL ME WHY VAbeachhurricanes IS TALKING ABOUT A YELLOW CIRCLE AT 8PM


geez calm down, he hasnt been on all day, there is nothing there

read back a few pages, StormW explains nicely what the situation is.
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1300. IKE
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
The wave in the caribbean... jeez guess not havent been on in a while guess its not gonna last.


Look what it's heading for.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe
purple
or blue


yea blue as in the color of the ocean on the NHC map

AKA Nuttin lol
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ok the carib wave well maybe let's just what and see
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1297. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:


LOL!


WHO VOTES FOR RED????? ANY TAKERS?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31661
1296. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
maybe
purple
or blue
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59100
The wave in the caribbean... jeez guess not havent been on in a while guess its not gonna last.
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1294. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


RED!?!?!?


LOL!
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1293. alcomat
possibly,but alot of dry air ahead of it
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1292. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Convective feedback much lol:


Don't see much in the EATL on this run, so far.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yellow circle at 8pm? or no?

for what?
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1290. Drakoen
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yellow circle at 8pm? or no?


RED!?!?!?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31661
The gulf is so eerily quiet for this time of year...hope its not the quiet before the (well you know)...
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


good evening, 456! how are ya? hey 456, how much longer before you know what my friend??? :( this season has been surreal thus far.


Sometime, in the next 2 weeks we should get something to track. I'm just patiently waiting since I know we have August and September still to go.. Also my good friend, all is not lost, you and I are young and there will be many hurricane seasons in the future. 2009 is just one year, just like 2005 was only 1 year.
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OOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!! OK!!
I get it now!! :D
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1733
Quoting cyclonekid:


Question
What is mitosis?

Cell division. Storms sometimes split and reform center just before strengthening.
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1284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)




weakening flag on
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59100
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


caribbean wave? or is that just thunderstorms?


Wave
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The Caribbean
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


for what?


caribbean wave? or is that just thunderstorms?
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1280. alcomat
I am finally back on this site,10 months after Ike gave my county a direct hit.that was pure hell,without power for a month.what was weird is we were on the left side of the eyewall,and in this storm it was worse than the right side!all red on the left and green and yellow on the right.this is gonna be a weird season,I predict 3 storms in august,and 4 storms in september.I dont know how many will be hurricanes[4??]just my prediction.hope everyone stays safe this season,and god be with the ones who get hit,cause I have a feeling they will be very strong......
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Quoting Chicklit:
Patrap, looks like Lana's undergoing mitosis.


Question
What is mitosis?
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1733
1278. IKE
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yellow circle at 8pm? or no?



????
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1277. IKE
All that looks like on that CMC is a tropical wave.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1276. Patrap
Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133453
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yellow circle at 8pm? or no?


for what?
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yellow circle at 8pm? or no?
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Goin Home.....Good thing about the current large scale synoptic pattern is that the SE Conus has been getting lots of rain lately so nobody is "starving" for a tropical storm, as has been usual in past years at this time, to help relieve a "major" drought issue in Georgia, Alabama or Florida.

See everyone tommorow..........WW
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1271. Patrap
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator
img
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133453
1270. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59100
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Ok let me get my binoculars

you mean 'magnifying glass.'
btw, strong line of showers coming across Central Fla. again tonight. Last night was like the 4th of july redux.

MelbourneRadar
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1268. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
you have to post data from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website now instead, Chicklit
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Quoting futuremet:


LOL I don't blame you, it is insignificant. Look closely at western Cuba toward the end of the run.


Ok let me get my binoculars
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Patrap, looks like Lana's undergoing mitosis. 50% chance of rapid intensification in the next 24 hours. Glad it's going south of Hawaii at present~!
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1264. Patrap
EP062009 - Tropical Storm LANA RAAMB page


EP062009 - Tropical Storm LANA
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis 1800 UTC




Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve



Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1 km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133453
I was wrong The Doc did talk about 1992. my computer seems to have a load problem
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Chicklit: NHC don't have responsibility for EP062009 anymore. =)

huh?
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1261. Drakoen
Convective feedback much lol:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31661

The Rain Chain
Link
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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