Bill Gates takes on hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 PM GMT on July 27, 2009

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Bill Gates thinks big. His charitable foundation has poured $1 billion into the fight against that great scourge of humankind, malaria, resulting in the creation of a new vaccine that is 100% effective in mice, and is now headed towards trials in humans. If successful, Gates' efforts have the potential to save millions of lives. Gates has also turned his attention to another great scourge of humankind, the hurricane. In a 2008 patent filing that recently came to light, Bill Gates and his friends presented a scheme for reducing the strength of hurricanes by cooling sea surface temperatures, using a fleet of ships that bring up cold water from the depths. Can Gates really pull this off? I don't think so. The obstacles are fourfold: technical, financial, environmental, and legal.


Figure 1. A diagram from a 2008 Bill Gates patent filing, depicting an array of hurricane-control vessels in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: techflash.com.

Technical issues
While modification of hurricanes is theoretically possible, the scale of the undertaking is truly enormous. A fleet of dozens or hundreds of ships spanning a huge swath of ocean would be required, and these ships would have to be able to withstand the 50-foot waves and 160 mph winds a major Category 5 hurricane could deliver. As I discussed when a similar scheme was proposed in 2006 by Atmocean, Inc., it is not clear how long the cold water pumped to the surface will stay there--the cold water pumped to the surface is more dense than the water beneath it, and so will tend to sink, allowing warmer water beneath to replace it and warm the surface waters again. Modeling studies and field studies are needed to determine if the cold water can stay at the surface long enough to significantly affect a hurricane. Furthermore, simply cooling the ocean may have no effect on a hurricane, if the storm is in a favorable upper-atmospheric environment with low wind shear.

Financial issues
Any hurricane modification effort is going to be tremendously expensive. The cost of the array of cooling pumps proposed by Atmocean in 2006 for the Gulf of Mexico was pegged at $2.4 billion. Gates' scheme would have a similar cost. He proposes paying for it through government funding and the sale of insurance policies in hurricane-prone areas.

Environmental issues
A large change to the ocean temperatures over a wide area of ocean is bound to have significant--and unknown--impacts on fisheries and wildlife. Regional weather patterns may also be affected, intensifying droughts or bringing heavy rains and flooding.

Legal issues
Hurricanes naturally make sudden unpredictable course shifts, and the hurricane modification efforts are also capable of causing track shifts in a storm. Residents on the coast hit by the modified storm will want to sue, and there will be many lawyers more than happy to take their case. Gates would have to get special legislation passed to protect his company from lawsuits, such Congress passed for the gun industry in 2006.

Summary
In summary, we simply don't know enough about hurricanes yet to safely engage in modifying them. A lot more research is needed before we should spend the huge sums needed to attempt hurricane modification. The Department of Homeland Security has a $1 million research effort going that will attempt to answer some of these questions, called HURRMIT (The Identification and Testing of Hurricane Mitigation Hypotheses). The HURRMIT program is evaluating the potential of a number of hurricane modification techniques, including:

Seeding with tiny hygroscopic aerosols to suppress warm rain (Rosenfeld et al. 2007 and Cotton et al., 2007)

Seeding with radiation-absorbing aerosols (i.e., carbon black) at the storm periphery (Gray et al., 1976)

Seeding with radiation-absorbing aerosols (i.e., carbon black) at storm top (Alamaro et al., 2006)

Pumping cool water from the depths to the ocean surface in front of the hurricane (Ginis and Kithil, 2008)

Frankly, I'm dubious that the money being spent on HURRMIT is worth it, given the four huge obstacles to hurricane modification I presented above. However, the research may provide some new insights into hurricane intensification that we don't have now.

For more insight on this issue, read the Washington Post article published on this subject earlier this year.

In closing, I'll present the proposal one reader of an New Orleans online newspaper had:

"[Bill Gates] should just have one of his employees write an ActiveX Script for Google maps so we can just highlight the hurricane, right click on it, then select delete. Or maybe just cut and paste it farther out into the Atlantic Ocean."

Controlling hurricanes, Hollywood style
Hollywood's latest attempt to create a weather disaster epic is itself a disaster, as many of you who suffered through last night's installment of "The Storm" miniseries on NBC will agree. The uninspired plot involves government/military bad guys and a noble scientist who heroically tries to save the world, with a good measure of made-for-TV chase scenes, murders, and special effects thrown in. The hero scientist Dr. Jonathan Kirk (James Van Der Beek) has a scheme whereby one can control the weather by bouncing crackling streams of energy from a ground-based array of dishes off of satellites and into the ionosphere, which then gets "peeled away like an onion". Dr. Kirk then uses the energy to bring life-giving rains to the Sudan, and to steer a hurricane away from Florida. The trouble is, he doesn't quite have things figured out. Unintended side effects occur, such as the Mojave Desert getting 8 inches of snow the day after 112°F temperatures. More problematically, the hurricane heading for Florida strengthens instead of weakening. In one scene, a radar animation of the hurricane off the coast of Florida shows the powerful storm spinning clockwise instead of counter-clockwise, defying the laws of physics. Hmm, that's some pretty powerful weather control technology! The scientific basis for the weather control scheme is preposterous--ground-based energy streams beamed into the ionosphere would not appreciably affect the weather. The weather is made in the troposphere, the layer of atmosphere closest to the ground. Furthermore, the amount of energy needed to cause the kind of disturbances portrayed in the movie are enormous, similar in scale to the entire electrical output of the world. A small array of ground-based dishes could only channel perhaps a trillionth of the amount of energy required. The movie's special effects are cheesy, the acting average, the plot weak, and the science behind the the story completely implausible, making this weather disaster movie as disastrous as the equally rotten Day After Tomorrow movie. The movie's main redeeming grace is as a cautionary tale--weather modification on a large scale will certainly have unintended side effects, and we should not engage in such efforts until we have a much greater understanding of how the weather and climate work.

Scientific American has an interesting article that talks about the proposed Bill Gates hurricane modification idea in more detail.
Jeff Masters

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1913. cyclonekid
2:09 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Groovy......Like a movie.....


LOL!
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
1912. SevereHurricane
2:09 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
1911. cyclonekid
2:06 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Guess the cold water was just closer to shore - didn't realize how hot it was further out in the GOM.

:)
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
1910. PensacolaDoug
2:06 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Groovy......Like a movie.....
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
1909. CycloneOz
2:05 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
WHats the count now Brian?


15...it's sooooooo slow!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3690
1908. hurricanejunky
2:04 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
I think Bill Gates is a fool in this case. Of course after 25 years of Windows, Outlook still hangs randomly when updating folders or IE crashes inexplicably or maybe today's the day I have to reboot my PC 10 times for updates. Windows is really a joke if you want to get down to it. 25 years down the road and this is what we've got??? I can't wait to see how he does fighting hurricanes.

I highly commend his humanitarian efforts but an undertaking like trying to slow down what is arguably Mother Nature's most powerful weather creation is not a job for man.

We need to explore how to pit one element of nature against another. Only nature is powerful enough to combat nature, IMHO.

HJ
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
1907. PensacolaDoug
2:03 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
WHats the count now Brian?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
1906. OSUWXGUY
2:03 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting sullivanweather:
The recent (past month) equatorial upwelling event over the Atlantic has been a major deterrent in further development of AEW's.

That 1-2°C cool anomaly in SST's simply doesn't have the heat capacity to maintain strong convection, especially when working in tandem with the numerous and routine surges of dust from the Sahara.

The Cape Verde season may not begin in earnest until the middle of August. By then the ITCZ may lift far enough north to lessen the effect of the cold water upwelling to the south.


I agree that this is an interesting new feature in the tropical Atlantic...with below normal SSTs along the equator. However, at least from the image below it doesn't look to extend north into the band where African Waves typically develop - between roughly 7 and 15 north. Here the SSTs are at least 26-27C.

I believe the dust you mention + general subsidence from the MJO has been the bigger issue for development

1905. hurricanehanna
2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Guess the cold water was just closer to shore - didn't realize how hot it was further out in the GOM.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
1904. CycloneOz
2:00 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting StormChaser81:


The waters in Gulf of Mexico are not cold, you might have been in a cold current eddy or pocket, which might be in the higher 70's to low 80's. But the GOM is about average. Just like a big bathtub.



Look at all that "white water" around the Penscola area. It doesn't even get above 80 degrees until well off shore!

Should a storm form and hook into that area at this time, you could expect a major downgrade before it would make landfall, imo.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3690
1903. StormChaser81
1:55 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Morning all. Still can't believe how quiet things are - but very grateful.
We were in Navarre Florida this past week and I had to make an observation about the GOM. The water was COLD. I'm not kidding. I know there was a cool front that had passed through the area, but the water remained a cool temperature the entire week. Had never noticed that before. Usually around noon it starts to warm up. I would hope if this is the case out into the GOM that this could inhibit strong development. I welcome any thoughts on this.


The waters in Gulf of Mexico are not cold, you might have been in a cold current eddy or pocket, which might be in the higher 70's to low 80's. But the GOM is about average. Just like a big bathtub.

Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
1902. jurakantaino
1:54 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting cg2916:
Very quiet today... looks like we will have a later start than '04. But I have that feeling that we'll explode in August/September, but then calm WAY down after that again, with maybe one or two Tropical Storms and one Hurricane in October. But we'll have to wait. None of the models forecast anything for a while, but look at the end of the GFS model near Africa, may be something to watch, but then again, we never know.



To far south I think.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
1901. PensacolaDoug
1:54 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:


Dang that Bill Gates! He's already out there pumpin' water up!

Just like him to just go and do it and then tell us all later on after it's up and runnin'!



Its better to ask for forgivenes than permission!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
1900. jeffs713
1:51 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting Patrap:


55-mile storm barrier proposed for Texas
'Ike Dike' could cost up to $4 billion and take 20 years to build

IMO, it would be a massive waste of money. Galveston and Bolivar are both barrier islands/peninsulas. If people build on them, they are building with the full knowledge of the risks involved. Also, trying to contain mother nature is a battle bound to be lost... if the dike isn't overtopped, the surge will go around it, and there is also the issue of Galveston Bay going up as a storm pulls away. Also, please keep in mind that at an estimated cost of $4 billion, if the dike "protects" 1 million people, it would cost $4000 per person, AND create a perception of false security. To top it all off, it will horribly disrupt the natural flow of water and natural restorative processes for the areas within the dike.

And finally... Haven't we learned that levees/dikes don't work? Just look at the flooding on the Mississippi river, Katrina in New Orleans, etc. All that will likely end up happening is a Cat 4/5 hits, overtops the Ike Dike, and then the water is stuck.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5882
1899. CycloneOz
1:50 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting hurricanehanna:
We were in Navarre Florida this past week and I had to make an observation about the GOM. The water was COLD. I'm not kidding....


Dang that Bill Gates! He's already out there pumpin' water up!

Just like him to just go and do it and then tell us all later on after it's up and runnin'!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3690
1898. hurricanehanna
1:48 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Morning all. Still can't believe how quiet things are - but very grateful.
We were in Navarre Florida this past week and I had to make an observation about the GOM. The water was COLD. I'm not kidding. I know there was a cool front that had passed through the area, but the water remained a cool temperature the entire week. Had never noticed that before. Usually around noon it starts to warm up. I would hope if this is the case out into the GOM that this could inhibit strong development. I welcome any thoughts on this.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
1897. help4u
1:44 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
tropical cyclone energy lowest in 30 years.
Member Since: September 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276
1896. Bearmann
1:44 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting Patrap:


55-mile storm barrier proposed for Texas
'Ike Dike' could cost up to $4 billion and take 20 years to build




It appears that they will be installing a bridge from the island to boliver. That would be nice but that would have to be one huge bridge
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
1895. cyclonekid
1:40 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting cg2916:
Very quiet today... looks like we will have a later start than '04. But I have that feeling that we'll explode in August/September, but then calm WAY down after that again, with maybe one or two Tropical Storms and one Hurricane in October. But we'll have to wait. None of the models forecast anything for a while, but look at the end of the GFS model near Africa, may be something to watch, but then again, we never know.


I agree completely...

Hi guys!
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
1894. Willow13
1:40 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Dr. Masters,

This is an excellent explanation of why Bill Gates' hurricane strength reducing scheme will not work and even if it did work, why it's not the right thing to do. I agree with you one hundred percent!

About the Hollywood movie disaster epics, they are just entertainment for fun, so don't hold them to keeping the laws of physics, or the science plausiable ;) It's supposed to be fantasy :) so give yourself a break from work, relax, and laugh about the hurricane spinning clockwise :D

For the Turtles (who probably wouldn't appreciale getting sucked up in a giant tube from the bottom of the Gulf where they are happily munching on crabs),
Dorothy Lane Carswell, Writer/Editor
Jekyll Island's Treasured Recipes
Cooking for Caretta caretta

-Please click to keep us #1
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Recipe Contributors from all over the World! No, we are not cooking turtles, we are cooking FOR the turtles ... especially our most famous visitor, Caretta caretta aka the Loggerhead Sea Turtle ♥

Member Since: September 16, 2003 Posts: 19 Comments: 2719
1893. sporteguy03
1:39 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting help4u:
No mjo this year,conditions are nil for development.In a couple weeks we will be saying conditions will become favorable a week or two.Before you know it season is over.I revise my predection from 2 storms down to 1 for the season.This will be a record breaking season for least amount of storms.


Why not say 0???:)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5312
1892. CycloneOz
1:34 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Here's a shameless plug for PensacolaDoug and his band! Doug is a great keyboard player and his band really rocks!

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3690
1891. help4u
1:29 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
No mjo this year,conditions are nil for development.In a couple weeks we will be saying conditions will become favorable a week or two.Before you know it season is over.I revise my predection from 2 storms down to 1 for the season.This will be a record breaking season for least amount of storms.
Member Since: September 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276
1890. PensacolaDoug
1:28 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Thanks JUnky!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
1889. CycloneOz
1:26 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting Patrap:
The doomsday blogs are 3 doors down on the Right...


LOL! :D
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3690
1888. PensacolaDoug
1:26 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
When Patrap calls you "Sport"
It means he didn't like your retort
So don't do it again
Or he might not be your friend
And treat you like a wart.


Just playin Pat, don't take it too seriously now!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
1887. CycloneOz
1:24 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Morning CO and PD! Hey PD, I liked the Crossfire song posted on CO's youtube channel. Pretty good stuff. I think you guys would do a killer job on the remakes...

This season is eerily quiet so far. Don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing...we'll see in the next 60 days....

HJ


Hey HJ! Thank you for what you're doing! Super appreciated! :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3690
1886. hurricanejunky
1:23 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
'morning all! :)

Hey Doug! Wassabee! :P (Yes or no on the songs, bro? :)

No rhymes or reasons from me today. It's not that I don't feel okay. I just popped in now to say "Hey!" Now I'm back to work, if I may.

Everyone have a great 0,0,0 day!

:D


Morning CO and PD! Hey PD, I liked the Crossfire song posted on CO's youtube channel. Pretty good stuff. I think you guys would do a killer job on the remakes...

This season is eerily quiet so far. Don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing...we'll see in the next 60 days....

HJ
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
1885. CycloneOz
1:21 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Brian. Call me.


No long-distance until tonight.
You can call me...you know where.
I'll send an e-mail with number.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3690
1884. PensacolaDoug
1:16 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Brian. Call me.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
1883. BobinTampa
1:11 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
who you talking to Ike??


good morning all.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 532
1882. Patrap
1:02 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Well,sport..your in the wrong blog with that.

The doomsday blogs are 3 doors down on the Right.


And refrain from quoting me if ya can..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
1880. Patrap
12:56 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
1879. bjdsrq
12:54 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Getting back on topic on the Gate's patent described here:
Gates wants to be God

I'm quite surprised to find a serious fundamental flaw in the concept presented by Gates. (Maybe this is why Windows is such an unstable and mediocre product.)

The flaw is expecting waves to fill a floating tub above the water line and thus create a head that is strong enough to effectively push water down a very long pipe that extends deep below the thermocline. Like air, water is a fluid, and the principles of convection apply. Warm water rises, and cold water sinks. At some point in its journey down the tube, the warm water is going to be surrounded by very cold water, and the convection is going to offset any small head created by waves, stopping the flow. Design won't work well at all IMO.
Member Since: July 26, 2003 Posts: 3 Comments: 428
1878. homelesswanderer
12:53 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting mrnicktou:


Are they proposing that for the west side of the island where the sea wall isn't at?


I'm not sure. The way I read it seems like they would be extending it to the east. But I could be wrong.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1877. cg2916
12:50 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Very quiet today... looks like we will have a later start than '04. But I have that feeling that we'll explode in August/September, but then calm WAY down after that again, with maybe one or two Tropical Storms and one Hurricane in October. But we'll have to wait. None of the models forecast anything for a while, but look at the end of the GFS model near Africa, may be something to watch, but then again, we never know.

Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1876. CycloneOz
12:50 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
'morning all! :)

Hey Doug! Wassabee! :P (Yes or no on the songs, bro? :)

No rhymes or reasons from me today. It's not that I don't feel okay. I just popped in now to say "Hey!" Now I'm back to work, if I may.

Everyone have a great 0,0,0 day!

:D
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3690
1875. mrnicktou
12:46 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Forgive me if this has already been posted...

Texas considers 55-mile ‘Ike Dike’ to protect the coast from flooding

Juan A. Lozano July 15th, 2009


GALVESTON, Texas — It has been dubbed the “Ike Dike” — a 55-mile barrier, 17 feet high, that would be built along the Texas Gulf Coast to fend off the sort of devastating flooding inflicted by last year’s Hurricane Ike.



This brings up some interesting points. But one concern mentioned was whether or not Texans should be allowed to build homes on the coast. The answer may be easy if they are talking about the beachfront. However there is only so far away someone could live and still make working in the all important petrochemical industry feasible. There are no easy answers. The proposed dike would not protect almost all of the areas east of Galveston that were destroyed by Ike. Ah well, we are one weary state.:(

Link


Are they proposing that for the west side of the island where the sea wall isn't at?
Member Since: July 28, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 64
1874. IKE
12:45 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1873. Orcasystems
12:42 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1872. homelesswanderer
12:31 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Forgive me if this has already been posted...

Texas considers 55-mile ‘Ike Dike’ to protect the coast from flooding

Juan A. Lozano July 15th, 2009


GALVESTON, Texas — It has been dubbed the “Ike Dike” — a 55-mile barrier, 17 feet high, that would be built along the Texas Gulf Coast to fend off the sort of devastating flooding inflicted by last year’s Hurricane Ike.



This brings up some interesting points. But one concern mentioned was whether or not Texans should be allowed to build homes on the coast. The answer may be easy if they are talking about the beachfront. However there is only so far away someone could live and still make working in the all important petrochemical industry feasible. There are no easy answers. The proposed dike would not protect almost all of the areas east of Galveston that were destroyed by Ike. Ah well, we are one weary state.:(

Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1871. IKE
12:30 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
456...you had a good blog.

Found this on his blog....

"According to some recent MJO updates by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the MJO signals have been weaker than normal over the past 2-3 months. The suppressive states are also lasting longer and more pronounce that the enhancing state. This is likely causing the lack of convective activity in the tropics, which is the first step in tropical cyclogenesis.".....


Look at the lack of convection in the Atlantic basin....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1870. futuremet
12:19 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
The models are showing a slight positive NAO pulse, but then turns it negative again. August will indeed an interesting month.

Tropical update coming in a couple of minutes
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
1869. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:14 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
2009 Storms
Active


Atlantic
NONE
East Pacific
NONE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
NONE
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE

july 29 nothing in the entire globe strange days indeed
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53846
1868. Nolehead
12:12 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
1862. PensacolaDoug 11:42 AM GMT on July 29, 2009
I'm not complaining about a slow season.
I own a home 75 yards from Bayou Grande in P'cola. My west-side neighborhood was hard-hit by Ivan. It was only thru luck that my home sits a few feet higher than most of my neighbors and I didn't get storm surge. Thirteen big pines came down tho.


morning everyone, yep P'cola Doug....I'm sure not complaining, could use a nice ground swell though...but yes Bayou Grande got rocked for sure...i live just west of that in Elberta just north of Pirates Cove and lord only knows we had enough our selves....Ike, yes to be this calm in late July all over is very strange..
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
1867. SpicyAngel1072
12:11 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
WOW those gulf waters are toasty!
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
1866. sporteguy03
12:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I'm not sure beause I didnt know about the models then but I believe no one had a clue Humberto was coming. And he's a prime example of why they were/are worried about another spinning up close to home this time and not enough time to warn anyone.



you also right now have decreasing shear and high SSts across the Atlantic basin, yeah the dust is there but despite what the models show or do not show hopefully everyone is prepared.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5312
1865. homelesswanderer
11:54 AM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'm not complaining about a slow season.
I own a home 75 yards from Bayou Grande in P'cola. My west-side neighborhood was hard-hit by Ivan. It was only thru luck that my home sits a few feet higher than most of my neighbors and I didn't get storm surge. Thirteen big pines came down tho.


I'm glad your house came out ok. There is sometimes a randomness with these storms as far as destruction goes. Last year Ike flooded the southern half of my county. But what a lot of people don't think about is the inland flooding/surge danger. We are not even a coastal county but Ike pushed so much water up the lakes and rivers and bayous we went under. With 20 feet of water on our one main street of my town. But in this storm we lucked out on a high piece of ground. And the tree fell away from the house. Rita took down approximately 50% of th tree canopy in some places. Ike another 20. So no complaints about the slow season here either.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1864. IKE
11:44 AM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'm not complaining about a slow season.
I own a home 75 yards from Bayou Grande in P'cola. My west-side neighborhood was hard-hit by Ivan. It was only thru luck that my home sits a few feet higher than most of my neighbors and I didn't get storm surge. Thirteen big pines came down tho.


Amen. I'm not complaining either. I'm shocked, but not complaining.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1863. homelesswanderer
11:43 AM GMT on July 29, 2009
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all.

I have a question about models vs development.

Has a system developed without any model support in the past?


I'm not sure beause I didnt know about the models then but I believe no one had a clue Humberto was coming. And he's a prime example of why they were/are worried about another spinning up close to home this time and not enough time to warn anyone.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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