Bill Gates takes on hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 PM GMT on July 27, 2009

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Bill Gates thinks big. His charitable foundation has poured $1 billion into the fight against that great scourge of humankind, malaria, resulting in the creation of a new vaccine that is 100% effective in mice, and is now headed towards trials in humans. If successful, Gates' efforts have the potential to save millions of lives. Gates has also turned his attention to another great scourge of humankind, the hurricane. In a 2008 patent filing that recently came to light, Bill Gates and his friends presented a scheme for reducing the strength of hurricanes by cooling sea surface temperatures, using a fleet of ships that bring up cold water from the depths. Can Gates really pull this off? I don't think so. The obstacles are fourfold: technical, financial, environmental, and legal.


Figure 1. A diagram from a 2008 Bill Gates patent filing, depicting an array of hurricane-control vessels in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: techflash.com.

Technical issues
While modification of hurricanes is theoretically possible, the scale of the undertaking is truly enormous. A fleet of dozens or hundreds of ships spanning a huge swath of ocean would be required, and these ships would have to be able to withstand the 50-foot waves and 160 mph winds a major Category 5 hurricane could deliver. As I discussed when a similar scheme was proposed in 2006 by Atmocean, Inc., it is not clear how long the cold water pumped to the surface will stay there--the cold water pumped to the surface is more dense than the water beneath it, and so will tend to sink, allowing warmer water beneath to replace it and warm the surface waters again. Modeling studies and field studies are needed to determine if the cold water can stay at the surface long enough to significantly affect a hurricane. Furthermore, simply cooling the ocean may have no effect on a hurricane, if the storm is in a favorable upper-atmospheric environment with low wind shear.

Financial issues
Any hurricane modification effort is going to be tremendously expensive. The cost of the array of cooling pumps proposed by Atmocean in 2006 for the Gulf of Mexico was pegged at $2.4 billion. Gates' scheme would have a similar cost. He proposes paying for it through government funding and the sale of insurance policies in hurricane-prone areas.

Environmental issues
A large change to the ocean temperatures over a wide area of ocean is bound to have significant--and unknown--impacts on fisheries and wildlife. Regional weather patterns may also be affected, intensifying droughts or bringing heavy rains and flooding.

Legal issues
Hurricanes naturally make sudden unpredictable course shifts, and the hurricane modification efforts are also capable of causing track shifts in a storm. Residents on the coast hit by the modified storm will want to sue, and there will be many lawyers more than happy to take their case. Gates would have to get special legislation passed to protect his company from lawsuits, such Congress passed for the gun industry in 2006.

Summary
In summary, we simply don't know enough about hurricanes yet to safely engage in modifying them. A lot more research is needed before we should spend the huge sums needed to attempt hurricane modification. The Department of Homeland Security has a $1 million research effort going that will attempt to answer some of these questions, called HURRMIT (The Identification and Testing of Hurricane Mitigation Hypotheses). The HURRMIT program is evaluating the potential of a number of hurricane modification techniques, including:

Seeding with tiny hygroscopic aerosols to suppress warm rain (Rosenfeld et al. 2007 and Cotton et al., 2007)

Seeding with radiation-absorbing aerosols (i.e., carbon black) at the storm periphery (Gray et al., 1976)

Seeding with radiation-absorbing aerosols (i.e., carbon black) at storm top (Alamaro et al., 2006)

Pumping cool water from the depths to the ocean surface in front of the hurricane (Ginis and Kithil, 2008)

Frankly, I'm dubious that the money being spent on HURRMIT is worth it, given the four huge obstacles to hurricane modification I presented above. However, the research may provide some new insights into hurricane intensification that we don't have now.

For more insight on this issue, read the Washington Post article published on this subject earlier this year.

In closing, I'll present the proposal one reader of an New Orleans online newspaper had:

"[Bill Gates] should just have one of his employees write an ActiveX Script for Google maps so we can just highlight the hurricane, right click on it, then select delete. Or maybe just cut and paste it farther out into the Atlantic Ocean."

Controlling hurricanes, Hollywood style
Hollywood's latest attempt to create a weather disaster epic is itself a disaster, as many of you who suffered through last night's installment of "The Storm" miniseries on NBC will agree. The uninspired plot involves government/military bad guys and a noble scientist who heroically tries to save the world, with a good measure of made-for-TV chase scenes, murders, and special effects thrown in. The hero scientist Dr. Jonathan Kirk (James Van Der Beek) has a scheme whereby one can control the weather by bouncing crackling streams of energy from a ground-based array of dishes off of satellites and into the ionosphere, which then gets "peeled away like an onion". Dr. Kirk then uses the energy to bring life-giving rains to the Sudan, and to steer a hurricane away from Florida. The trouble is, he doesn't quite have things figured out. Unintended side effects occur, such as the Mojave Desert getting 8 inches of snow the day after 112°F temperatures. More problematically, the hurricane heading for Florida strengthens instead of weakening. In one scene, a radar animation of the hurricane off the coast of Florida shows the powerful storm spinning clockwise instead of counter-clockwise, defying the laws of physics. Hmm, that's some pretty powerful weather control technology! The scientific basis for the weather control scheme is preposterous--ground-based energy streams beamed into the ionosphere would not appreciably affect the weather. The weather is made in the troposphere, the layer of atmosphere closest to the ground. Furthermore, the amount of energy needed to cause the kind of disturbances portrayed in the movie are enormous, similar in scale to the entire electrical output of the world. A small array of ground-based dishes could only channel perhaps a trillionth of the amount of energy required. The movie's special effects are cheesy, the acting average, the plot weak, and the science behind the the story completely implausible, making this weather disaster movie as disastrous as the equally rotten Day After Tomorrow movie. The movie's main redeeming grace is as a cautionary tale--weather modification on a large scale will certainly have unintended side effects, and we should not engage in such efforts until we have a much greater understanding of how the weather and climate work.

Scientific American has an interesting article that talks about the proposed Bill Gates hurricane modification idea in more detail.
Jeff Masters

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Beautiful wave about to exit Africa.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Quoting futuremet:
Jasoniscoolman09

here is the map of the tropical low.
the big high to the north will keep this tropical low down to the south no way going out to sea with a big high like that no way.

Yes, the A/B high is expected to remain potent. This would inhibit recurvatures out-to-sea. The GFS 200mb shows little troughing occuring in the Atlantic, which indicates the presence of a vigorous subtropical ridge. The GEFS overall upper level jet mean location seems probable, because it is in harmony with what the ECMWF have been forecasting over the past weeks, and the CFS. The GEFS shows a troughing pattern over the U.S, but a stronger Bermuda ridge. Both the CFS and the GEFS however, amplifies the trough more, and propagates it farther east. This could enhance the chance of a recurvature, if a tropical cyclone is nearing the northern Bahamas. For storms tracking toward the Caribbean, a quasi-Ernesto track seems to be likely scenario, which would however, put the SE U.S. at risk. Nonetheless, I am leaning more toward the ECMWF's forecast--the mean troughing occuring at the midwest. One thing is for sure, the MJO will return in the Atlantic over the next two weeks, and I do believe we will have Ana by then.

GEFS


ECMWF-GFS



CFS

The CFS was more aggressive yesterday, since it showed a more amplified trough, and it was also farther east.



That's called a positive NAO.


slightly positive. Both synoptic features are in play
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29928
Quoting TexasGulf:
My relatives chose to evacuate New Orleans for Katrina. They stayed at my house in Beaumont, Tx through Rita and were in the west eye-wall.

We stayed in Kingwood, Texas through Hurricane Ike and were in the direct path of the eye.

You can't classify everyone who stayed or left into some category. Not everyone that stayed was "stubborn, stupid, wreckless, uninformed"... or whatever name you come up with. Some people may be, but not most. Most people can make reasonable, informed decisions and they do sometimes miscalculate or make mistakes.

Lets say that only 25% of the population that chose NOT to evacuate were informed, making a reasonable decision based on their knowledge of circumstances... are you going to force that 25% to leave their homes? What if I told you that 25% of relatively sane, reasonable population numbered around 40,000 total. Would you try to force 40,000 people using reasonable judgement to evacuate anyway?

Then, if so... please identify that 25%. Separate them from the 75% that are either below 100 IQ, using poor judgement or are simply wreckless. Given 2-minutes as an officer to make that decision would be really tough. I'm saying that forced evacuations are unconstitutional, chaotic and counter-productive... besides that they will be resisted.

Its better to spend your efforts keeping the evacuation routes open and traffic flowing.

If the government would like to help... try canceling school, trash services and closing government offices a day earlier instead. That would help.
I think you are right on closing schools a day earlier and other government office. In Grand Cayman when Paloma was approaching us (I work at the PO) we had to stay until maybe 12 hours before we felt the full force. Had to drive home in blinding rain.As soon as it passed us and was headinf to Cayman Brac had to go back to work to unpack the mail etc.
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
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Quoting TexasGulf:
My relatives chose to evacuate New Orleans for Katrina. They stayed at my house in Beaumont, Tx through Rita and were in the west eye-wall.

We stayed in Kingwood, Texas through Hurricane Ike and were in the direct path of the eye.

You can't classify everyone who stayed or left into some category. Not everyone that stayed was "stubborn, stupid, wreckless, uninformed"... or whatever name you come up with. Some people may be, but not most. Most people can make reasonable, informed decisions and they do sometimes miscalculate or make mistakes.

Lets say that only 25% of the population that chose NOT to evacuate were informed, making a reasonable decision based on their knowledge of circumstances... are you going to force that 25% to leave their homes? What if I told you that 25% of relatively sane, reasonable population numbered around 40,000 total. Would you try to force 40,000 people using reasonable judgement to evacuate anyway?

Then, if so... please identify that 25%. Separate them from the 75% that are either below 100 IQ, using poor judgement or are simply wreckless. Given 2-minutes as an officer to make that decision would be really tough. I'm saying that forced evacuations are unconstitutional, chaotic and counter-productive... besides that they will be resisted.

Its better to spend your efforts keeping the evacuation routes open and traffic flowing.

If the government would like to help... try canceling school, trash services and closing government offices a day earlier instead. That would help.


Again you want to stay, then stay, but you are on your own. Dont call and expect help during a storm and putting other peoples' lives in danger.

I have seen more people wish they had evacuated after thinking they could ride out a hurricane then I have seen people justified for staying. You will never convince me it is a smart idea to stay along the coast during a hurricane.
I mentioned the wave over Africa 2 hours ago. It will emerge wed and be a td by sat. 90% chance. This is the one!!!!! ANA
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one thing is for sure, we wont have a season as quiet as 2006 because the conditions are different
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the longer we wait for a name storm in the W PAC the better ch of a wind storm in CA come OCT
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TG-I understand and agree with what you are saying about your area and mitigation to prevent further damages.I was in your area after Rita.Lots of debris thrown around.I think the focus of what they are doing with the current law is so the volunteers and rescue teams do not have the 20k idiots that live closer to the coast that think they can ride out the storm and then call for help putting other lives in danger.I would say that after Katrina criticism of the way things were handled and what happened with lives lost that no state wants to take the chance of being blamed for not trying to prevent another tragedy.If you are young and capable of holding out to protect your home or neighbors then do so.
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My relatives chose to evacuate New Orleans for Katrina. They stayed at my house in Beaumont, Tx through Rita and were in the west eye-wall.

We stayed in Kingwood, Texas through Hurricane Ike and were in the direct path of the eye.

You can't classify everyone who stayed or left into some category. Not everyone that stayed was "stubborn, stupid, wreckless, uninformed"... or whatever name you come up with. Some people may be, but not most. Most people can make reasonable, informed decisions and they do sometimes miscalculate or make mistakes.

Lets say that only 25% of the population that chose NOT to evacuate were informed, making a reasonable decision based on their knowledge of circumstances... are you going to force that 25% to leave their homes? What if I told you that 25% of relatively sane, reasonable population numbered around 40,000 total. Would you try to force 40,000 people using reasonable judgement to evacuate anyway?

Then, if so... please identify that 25%. Separate them from the 75% that are either below 100 IQ, using poor judgement or are simply wreckless. Given 2-minutes as an officer to make that decision would be really tough. I'm saying that forced evacuations are unconstitutional, chaotic and counter-productive... besides that they will be resisted.

Its better to spend your efforts keeping the evacuation routes open and traffic flowing.

If the government would like to help... try canceling school, trash services and closing government offices a day earlier instead. That would help.
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Some damage and flooding from today's storm:





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18z Dust Forecast
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29928
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Stormy I agree with most of what you said. However, Ike was a 2. That played into a lot of decisions too. Education would be needed here.
I watched Ike on tv as he made landfall and actually before he hit Cuba and as he headed towards Texas. I would not blame anyone for mandatory evacuations with him as he was HUGE.
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Quoting hurricane23:
The wave that concerns me right now is over Africa & should emerge in the Atlantic come mid week.Might have sal to contend with but we'll see what happens as its getting to the time of the year were the eastern atlantic turns active.


I agree. It is very vigorous and very high amplitude.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29928
Quoting Skyepony:
91W is gone, 94W is new & they put a floater on it...


(click to animate)

Looks to be moving away & taking worsening shear.


I dont get it, why is nothing wanting to form in the WPAC. We have had now 6 or 7 invests in about 2 weeks and none developed. Dont think I have ever seen that before
The wave that concerns me right now is over Africa & should emerge in the Atlantic come mid week.Might have sal to contend with but we'll see what happens as its getting to the time of the year were the eastern atlantic turns active.
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745. Skyepony (Mod)
91W is gone, 94W is new & they put a floater on it...


(click to animate)

Looks to be moving away & taking worsening shear.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37442
Quoting sporteguy03:


I'd expect with a screename help4u he would "help" explain why he views things like that.
Maybe he needs tochange his name to help4me
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Stormy I agree with most of what you said. However, Ike was a 2. That played into a lot of decisions too. Education would be needed here.
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Quoting victoria780:
Everything is fine if the people in charge wouldnt cry wolf.Right after Hurricane Katrina they called for mandatory evacuations for Nueces county which includes Corpus Christi,Tx.This was for Hurricane Rita.The only problem was we were never under a hurricane warning..Just a watch..
Maybe better safe than sorry ?
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


he doesnt have any, he is a troll


I'd expect with a screename help4u he would "help" explain why he views things like that.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


That is a good way of looking at it, fine if you want to stay, then stay, but you are completely on your own until the storm passes.
Amen.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't think they should be ripped out of their homes either but then on the other hand it might be in their best interest. When Ivan was approaching Grand Cayman there was a mandatory evacuation in certain areas. Some people refused to leave and during the height of the storm were calling the fire department asking to be rescued. Of course they couldn't come out then but as soon as the winds began to die down they did go out rescuing people. As the mother of 2 firefighters I think it would benefit them to force people to leave rather than jeopardize their own lives when it can be prevented. Sometimes people can be pigheaded but we all know property can be replaced but not lives.


That is a good way of looking at it, fine if you want to stay, then stay, but you are completely on your own until the storm passes.
Everything is fine if the people in charge wouldnt cry wolf.Right after Hurricane Katrina they called for mandatory evacuations for Nueces county which includes Corpus Christi,Tx.This was for Hurricane Rita.The only problem was we were never under a hurricane warning..Just a watch..
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Quoting hurricane23:


I concur.


Even with poor resolution, you can see how the GFS expects the moisture to increase over the Atlantic after August 8. Link

This is in conjunction with the MJO's upward pulse arrival

GFS



CFS

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Quoting Chicklit:
Frankly, Jason, you have lost all credibility with me due to your "joke" postings. I cannot believe you are still on here after doctoring up two NHC releases (that I have witnessed, anyway).
In other (negative) news, I do not think people should be ripped out of their homes in hurricanes.
I don't think they should be ripped out of their homes either but then on the other hand it might be in their best interest. When Ivan was approaching Grand Cayman there was a mandatory evacuation in certain areas. Some people refused to leave and during the height of the storm were calling the fire department asking to be rescued. Of course they couldn't come out then but as soon as the winds began to die down they did go out rescuing people. As the mother of 2 firefighters I think it would benefit them to force people to leave rather than jeopardize their own lives when it can be prevented. Sometimes people can be pigheaded but we all know property can be replaced but not lives.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


What analysis or support do you have to claim? Just wondering it will be interesting to discuss if it happens.


he doesnt have any, he is a troll
Quoting help4u:
record dead season ahead.1to2storms for season.


What analysis or support do you have to claim? Just wondering it will be interesting to discuss if it happens.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185
Quoting help4u:
record dead season ahead.1to2storms for season.


Give me a break. Im sorry to sound like a broken record but think of 2004. No named till August. 1997 saw 8 storms and that had an El Nino and shear 100x than what we have.
2006 even had a stronger El Nino. 11-13 named storms is likely.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


latest maps show SAL is very minimial in the vicinity of the wave at 45W


I still see some a bit north and west of it that it could be entraining. Think we would see a bit more convection if it wasn't for that. Not as dry as it has been though.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting futuremet:
Jasoniscoolman09

here is the map of the tropical low.
the big high to the north will keep this tropical low down to the south no way going out to sea with a big high like that no way.


Yes, the A/B high is expected to remain potent. This would inhibit recurvatures out-to-sea. The GFS 200mb shows little troughing occuring in the Atlantic, which indicates the presence of a vigorous subtropical ridge. The GEFS overall upper level jet mean location seems probable, because it is in harmony with what the ECMWF have been forecasting over the past weeks, and the CFS. The GEFS shows a troughing pattern over the U.S, but a stronger Bermuda ridge. Both the CFS and the GEFS however, amplifies the trough more, and propagates it farther east. This could enhance the chance of a recurvature, if a tropical cyclone is nearing the northern Bahamas. For storms tracking toward the Caribbean, a quasi-Ernesto track seems to be likely scenario, which would however, put the SE U.S. at risk. Nonetheless, I am leaning more toward the ECMWF's forecast--the mean troughing occuring at the midwest. One thing is for sure, the MJO will return in the Atlantic over the next two weeks, and I do believe we will have Ana by then.<BR>
GEFS


ECMWF-GFS



CFS

The CFS was more aggressive yesterday, since it showed a more amplified trough, and it was also farther east.






I concur.
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One BIG reason I choose to stay is the fact that once you evacuate... your gone for the duration.

People assume that a hurricane is only a 24-hour event, then people can come home and clean up. After Rita, people in Jefferson County, Texas were kept out of their counties for 3-4 weeks, some were kept out longer.

After Ike, some areas remained evacuated for 3 weeks or more. That's weeks of staying in a hotel in Dallas or staying with relatives. Weeks when your house, which may have been easily repaired, continues to suffer damage. Broken windows or a hole in the roof could be covered, not continuing to suffer rain damage. There is a LOT you can do if you stayed.

If I could evacuate only for the storm, then return knowing it would be without electricity or basic services... I could live with that. Being kept out of my own neighborhood, not being allowed to return to my own home for 3-4 weeks by national guardsmen at the county line... that's too much. If I stay through the storm, then I can remain so long as I don't get up on the highway or cross county lines. Them's the rules!

This way, I can take care of neighbor's pets, secure their property, watch over my neighborhood and house and do whatever needs to be done.

I resent the government ideal of evacuation lasting until they decide otherwise, even if it means 60-days out of your home. That is a primary factor in choosing to stay put despite "mandatory" orders.
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As far as forced evacuations go - a person choosing to stay on his/her own property in the face of a hurricane is one of autonomy & personal responsibility. American culture was different from other developed countries in that, until recently, we valued independence & self-determination rather than collective decisions. Nanny state entitlement thinking has unfortunately crept to the forefront of many Americans beliefs however. Somehow too many Americans believe it is "the Guvmint's" responsibility to "take care" of their basic needs - rather than do this for themselves. The proposal to "fine" those who won't vacate their property at "the Guvmint's" bidding is truly chilling & goes another step in the direction of negating an individual's property right, self-determination & autonomy (but its for their own good right?). A slippery slope to be sure...
Clearly a person deciding to stay in the face of a severe storm have to understand the consequences of such a decision. Autonomy means you have to exercise personal responsibility & not expect another person to risk their life or limb should you run into complications associated with staying. You choose to stay - fine, you are on your own until safe travel conditions return - plan accordingly.
I suspect there are a number of folks who do not plan ahead & choose to stay because they "feel" it is someone else's "job" to come & fish them out of the disaster. This is the behavior that needs "re-educating" not a person who decides to stay & plans accordingly, knowing full well they will be on their own for possibly weeks after a storm.
Me personally? A category 3 will get us evacuating (though I do worry about mitigation of property damage) - at 16 feet above sea level a 3 is simply too much. Especially if coming in at night on a rising tide...but we sure will be securing the home in every way possible - just as if we were staying. Category 2 - staying put - home secured, propane tank topped off, generator serviced (done early if need be), 30+ gallons of water filled & ready, food supplies readied, coolers full of ice in bathtubs, redneck cooler full of iced down food & beverages (top load washer), emergency medical kit up to date, important papers plastic bagged up & in dishwasher, fresh batteries available, light sources readied & nonessential electrical appliances disconnected, tarps, duct tape & other emergency repair items stashed in bathroom of ground floor apt, friends notified... good to go.
Are we crazy? Do we expect anyone to come fetch us or fish us put of the soup? No. Focus the recovery efforts on opening roadways & restoring power, water & sewer. Please.
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record dead season ahead.1to2storms for season.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
well hey if you really feel you can protect your house by being there, then stay, I dont think police should risk their lives on stubborn people

just my opinion, if you want to stay, be sure you are ready to pay the ultimate price


Amen!
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Im sorry but I only partly agree with you, I agree that the fine may be the better way to go, but Ike should have taught everyone last year that it is a bad idea to stay on the coast during a mandatory evacuation. A lot of people have claimed to know their surroundings and then regretted staying.

I remember back to 2004 in Florida some guy was filmed actually saying, "Yea we arent trying to be heroes or brave or anything, I just want to make sure when I wake up I still have my home."

Im sorry but what in the world do you think you are going to do exactly to prevent this hurricane from destroying your home and now well since you stayed killing you?


That is the best way I ever heard it put. Lol. Having said that, I know a law such as this won't work. And if you want to stay and protect your stuff, knock yourself out. Me personally I run. And I have lost everything and been looted. People are so nice. Unfortunately a lot of people had no idea Ike would be that bad because they came out relatively unscathed during Rita. You know who evacuated during Ike? The ones who were hit by Rita. The good ole 'it'll nver happen to me" was in full force here. Although the officials in Galveston Co. did wait too late to call a evac. It is sad. But I don't know what will open anyones eyes. Most of the world has no idea that Rita did to SW louisiana what Ike did to Boliver. And SW Louisiana.
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Quoting extreme236:
Without all that dust I really think that wave near 45W couldve developed.


latest maps show SAL is very minimial in the vicinity of the wave at 45W
Jasoniscoolman09

here is the map of the tropical low.
the big high to the north will keep this tropical low down to the south no way going out to sea with a big high like that no way.


Yes, the A/B high is expected to remain potent. This would inhibit recurvatures out-to-sea. The GFS 200mb shows little troughing occuring in the Atlantic, which indicates the presence of a vigorous subtropical ridge. The GEFS overall upper level jet mean location seems probable, because it is in harmony with what the ECMWF have been forecasting over the past weeks, and the CFS. The GEFS shows a troughing pattern over the U.S, but a stronger Bermuda ridge. Both the CFS and the GEFS however, amplifies the trough more, and propagates it farther east. This could enhance the chance of a recurvature, if a tropical cyclone is nearing the northern Bahamas. For storms tracking toward the Caribbean, a quasi-Ernesto track seems to be likely scenario, which would however, put the SE U.S. at risk. Nonetheless, I am leaning more toward the ECMWF's forecast--the mean troughing occuring at the midwest. One thing is for sure, the MJO will return in the Atlantic over the next two weeks, and I do believe we will have Ana by then.

GEFS


ECMWF-GFS



CFS

The CFS was more aggressive yesterday, since it showed a more amplified trough, and it was also farther east.




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Without all that dust I really think that wave near 45W couldve developed.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
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Just seems to me the easiest solution is just to get of a hurricane's path it is going to do what its going to do, with so many forces at work wind, rain, tornados, no power, flooding is it really worth it?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185
Also being in a higher elevation may keep you safer from storm surge and flooding, but it makes your house more susceptable to winds too

Again I reiterate, many have said they thought they could stay, that they knew their surroundings and then when the storm came, they wished they had left

Why would you take that chance?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
716. amd
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


exactly 456 lol, I said something like that a few days ago. I mean if the models have been so bad this season and everyone thinks they are crazy when they develop something, then why arent they crazy when they say its quiet? lol



one thing that i noticed about the gfs is that it does a great job dealing with the macro events (placement of bermuda high, troughs, etc.) but struggles with specific events (tropical low formation, etc.).

And, by looking at the 18L GFS and I will assume the 00L GFS as well, it looks like conditions will be better for tropical development in the 2nd part of August (August 11th-August 20th). The highest pressure seem to be near the Azores instead of the middle of the central atlantic, and that should allow for development due to less SAL, lower pressures in the MDR, and tropical waves farther away from the equator.

Although, also looking at the pattern at the end of the GFS, any storms that develop will probably go out to sea, but that could change if bridging of the azores and bermuda highs occur.
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well hey if you really feel you can protect your house by being there, then stay, I dont think police should risk their lives on stubborn people

just my opinion, if you want to stay, be sure you are ready to pay the ultimate price
Everyone's circumstances are different. Prior to Ike making landfall, I would have supported a MANDATORY evacuation of neighborhoods on Galveston that are less than 8 feet elevation above sea level. Luckily, the eye passed just East of Galveston, sparing it from the worst of the storm surge. Otherwise, that town would now be half of its present size. In the future, it will happen.

My house in Beaumont, Tx was in a mandatory evacuation zone, but the neighborhood was 27 feet above sea level. We may have had minor street flooding, definitely wind damage... but not storm surge.

My house NE of Houston is in an evacuation zone for Cat-4... but we are 72 feet above sea level with excellent drainage. I am a structural engineer and am very, very picky about houses. I frustrate real estate agents, but if I was even worried about my home during high winds.. I wouldn't have bought it in the first place. A house is either built exceptionally well or I won't choose to live there.

We don't have any trees within falling distance of the house. I don't believe in having large awnings, carports or patio covers that can catch the wind. A house will either be all brick siding or concrete hardi-board. My present house has both. No aluminum or vinyl siding... no wood shake roofs, no clay tile roofs, no beaver board roof decks. If there are not hurricane ties every rafter (which there are), then I will add them.

I also know my own neighborhood. We don't have significant debris hazards, chemical or industrial reasons to leave or utilities issues. There is ZERO reason for me to be forced from my home. I can use reasonable judgement though and am not a fool. If there were a very strong Cat-4 or a Cat-5 coming and I was on the East side of circulation... depending on conditions (strengthening vs. weakening, size of wind field) I can decide when to evacuate.

Having authorities feel a need to "force" me to leave means that they will waste some valuable time and probably jail space.

I don't feel that the law is completely bad... just not enforceable because it is way too open and vague. If they said "mandatory" evac of all properties less than 7 feet above sea level in particular coastal areas... then fine. Otherwise, there are HUGE areas included in those "mandatory evac" zones that are at higher elevation, possibly better construction and may still be perfectly safe to occupy. You can't force everyone to leave under a blanket statement. Not all circumstances are alike.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


I could be wrong, but looking at where the wave is now, I doubt it will take till Friday to emerge.


Same. It should take another day or two.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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