Invest 98L or a nor'easter?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 AM GMT on July 24, 2009

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Hi, it's Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Dr. Masters today.

Take a look at the satellite image below:


Fig. 1 GOES IR composite at 2120 EDT, July 23 2009

What do you see? (This is like a Rorschach test for meteorologists) Well, it's got a comma head with what looks like a front extending southward. It must be a nor'easter with some pretty good precipitation bands from NY into New England. There are also plenty of coastal flood advisories out to make it seem like fall/winter. Right?


Fig. 1 Plot of severe weather advisories made at 2120 EDT, July 23 2009

Well, that's not quite the right answer. For 4 hours earlier today, this low was known as INVEST98L. I have to admit that this designation caught me by surprise. Looking at the QUIKSCAT passes and SSMI data in the dark hours of the morning (I work in the SF office), I saw an elongated cyclone that looked it had a front extending southward. That meant the feature was maybe subtropical at best, and more than likely extratropical given the model analyses available. So, color me surprised when I found out about INVEST98L and even more surprised about it's short lifespan.

Moving on and taking at look at the tropical Atlantic, there's not much in the way of tropical waves to look at on satellite except for the fresh cluster that just moved off the coast. We'll have to wait and see how that wave will develop.

Rob

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I like Rob's style at the end of the blog! :)

"Nuthin' to see here people, move along now." :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3620
Good Morning;

Ex-98L affecting the Northeast; Tropics Quiet
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Last night I said "Thinking East of Florida for development soon, real soon, sweeps to the straights, and crawls back towards coat as it moves NNW as a Cat 1 or two". This morning I feel that this BLOB will sink to extreme south east Bahama chain and loop up north and crawl back towards Florida as something between a Depression and weak Hurricane; this whole process should take 3.5 days
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 683
Looks like the Boyz on the Cape & North got some big waves.....
Nada here in SWFL -Gulf is as flat as it gets.... the rising sun greets The East Coast Surfers with some fun looking waves. Gulf Temp 89

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you know, I was hoping to get at least some rain out of this system, but its had a fairly defined "cut off line" on the western side= new york didnt get any rain like they were calling for.
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Quoting leftovers:
good morning melb. fl. nws discussion noted the persistant trough is suppose to retrograde west allowing the ridge to pushinto florida s florida could be vulnerable to a west moving tropical system


Not to mention that a persistent ridge in that area will aid in heating the SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico, due to southerly flow on the western periphery of said ridge.
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50. 7544
Quoting hurricanefiend85:
What about that persistent little blob around 25N 73W... Also noticed that the 2AM discussion has yet to be released...But I dought if anyway is on this blog anyway...Buenos Noches


and its in less shear /? lloks to be moving south ?
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What about that persistent little blob around 25N 73W... Also noticed that the 2AM discussion has yet to be released...But I dought if anyway is on this blog anyway...Buenos Noches
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Quoting stormsurge39:
The wave coming off africa now looks like the next invest.
not till it gets to 25w and persists more than 12 hrs
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Evening,

Still waiting for Ana entering late July in this so far quiet season, but the ITCZ is ganing latitude and that's will finaly kick off 2009 huricane season. If el Niño does't pick up and stay a weak El niño we will have many stroms to track. 00z GFS try to develop a TC in the EATL in 36-96 hrs time frame and looking the Sat loops of and the conditions in the tropical atlantic below 20N we could have 99L in 24 hrs.
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The wave coming off africa now looks like the next invest.
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Quoting TaminFLA:
I can't help but thinking that it so quiet....to quiet.......like we are going to get slamed in August and September.


Yeah, that is what it seems like here too. Been so quiet in the Gulf and some HOT waters. Seems like like one day we will wake up and there it is......questions is...how strong.
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Wind Shear.. zippo... nada
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
looks lively along the ITCZ tonight...
turninandburnin

thanks dr. rob for the 'flash' update!
funny you hadn't noticed it...lol.
coming from connecticut shore, summer storms were always the best!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11180
btw...this wasnt close to being a tropical or subtropical storm....xtratrop...ok 50% on that...this is just a typical cold core low with some warming that took place near VA @ the start..but it quickly became cold-core.

Now the memorial day system in Alabama...was probably a Tropical Storm..
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JB is the biggest Hypecaster of all... its entertainment for everyone. I do like JB....dont get me wrong....and he does have knowledge...but he lets his hype overtake his forecasting..makes that his forecasting...
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's what JB at ACCUWEATHER is saying tonight.


THURSDAY 11:30 PM
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LASHING S NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS


The data buoy 23 s of Montauk has had wind gusts to 42.7 kts and Block Island is now gusting near gale force

Here is the wind profile at the data buoy showing the rapid ramp up as the center approaches, typical of tight warm core system with strong winds near its center:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=44017&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4& time_label=EDT

That the origin of this in the low levels was an African wave certainly is a factor in how it is trying to develop as the heat of a long journey through the tropics is adding to the storm.


I dont know if the average person can appreciate what is going on here. While this is not named, in my lifetime, the only storm to force gale warnings in the New England coastal waters in July that I can remember was Bertha in July of 1996.

But think about this... this is causing, for New England, more wind and rain than Charley in 2004 which made its final landfall on the New England coast, though not many people had much with it. I certainly understand why TPC is not naming this, but I would understand if they had.


This is the second non named system to come from waters over 25c and cause tropical storm conditions on the coast, to not get classified. The first one was Friday night of memorial day weekend on the Alabama coast.


Interesting stuff and he does have a point
Here's what JB at ACCUWEATHER is saying tonight.


THURSDAY 11:30 PM
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LASHING S NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS


The data buoy 23 s of Montauk has had wind gusts to 42.7 kts and Block Island is now gusting near gale force

Here is the wind profile at the data buoy showing the rapid ramp up as the center approaches, typical of tight warm core system with strong winds near its center:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=44017&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4& time_label=EDT

That the origin of this in the low levels was an African wave certainly is a factor in how it is trying to develop as the heat of a long journey through the tropics is adding to the storm.


I dont know if the average person can appreciate what is going on here. While this is not named, in my lifetime, the only storm to force gale warnings in the New England coastal waters in July that I can remember was Bertha in July of 1996.

But think about this... this is causing, for New England, more wind and rain than Charley in 2004 which made its final landfall on the New England coast, though not many people had much with it. I certainly understand why TPC is not naming this, but I would understand if they had.


This is the second non named system to come from waters over 25c and cause tropical storm conditions on the coast, to not get classified. The first one was Friday night of memorial day weekend on the Alabama coast.
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Evening kids - should i call my brother and tell him lousy weather is on it's way...oh wait -i think he's got it already on long island.

Hope everyone is well...
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Nor'easter in July...Who'd a thunk it?!
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
So Dr. Carver are you calling it a NorEaster or not.....i don't know!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting Funkadelic:


For them to mention it this early out, then the NHC might be hinting at possible development once the dust is out of the way.

Anna in the making?? stay tuned....
more like dust in the wind
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Has anyone else noticed the 75F SST patches in the western Pacific, in the midst of the widespread area of 31C SSTs? This is likely erroneous, but it's on the wunderground's SST map on the tropical page.

Just thought it was interesting. We have not had any tropical cyclones to cause upwelling in that area, so it struck me as odd to see that.
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good night everyone could this be our next invest 99l
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 19N29W TO 09N27W MOVING W 10-15
KT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS WITH CLOUD MOTIONS
SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW NEAR 14N28W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONIC TURNING IS AT THE SFC...THOUGH WINDS
ARE GENERALLY WEAK. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE SUPPRESSED BY SAHARAN DUST.

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11167
Rob thank you for the late update out from the West Coast, good to know!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5176
I can't help but thinking that it so quiet....to quiet.......like we are going to get slamed in August and September.
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Hi guys! Looks like the NE is in for some wet weather!
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maybe thats what 09 will be

the year of the nor'easters
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
A Nor'easter in July!?


Looks very similar to the March 1-3 Snowstorm.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A Nor'easter in July!?


It's bound to be linked to GW. *ducking*
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Not looking too impressive at the moment except for the convection. We will just have to wait and see what happens.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




pulling away now your on the southern edge of precip shield


Yea but winds are still increasing and the pressure is still falling. more signs that its non tropical
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Quoting MrSea:
Guys I live in western Long Island on a back bay. heres my stats

Temp 64F
Dewpoint 63F
Pressure 29.79 falling rapidly
Wind ENE at 18 G29 (just got that gust as i wrote this, highest of the day so far)
0.94 inches of rain fallen
Heavy rain now




Thats a buoy just to my south




Thats the tide guage on my canal




pulling away now your on the southern edge of precip shield
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Good Evening,
Thank you Dr. Carver and also you MrSea in Long Island. Both very interesting. I love to know what's going on weatherwise in other areas. Coffee weather for sure. Stay safe.
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Go Dawgs!
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Glad the tropics are quiet on the anniversary of Dolly hitting SPI, TX.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
cant disagree...looks like a hatteras low to me. Has all the standard characteristics.


Oh yea im right in this thing. Its freezing. 63.8 degrees and falling. dewpoint was 71 this morning but 63 now, this storm has wiped out the tropical airmass, it hasnt reinforced it. definitely nontropical
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cant disagree...looks like a hatteras low to me. Has all the standard characteristics.
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Thx Dr. C
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Quoting MrSea:
Guys I live in western Long Island on a back bay. heres my stats

Temp 64F
Dewpoint 63F
Pressure 29.79 falling rapidly
Wind ENE at 18 G29 (just got that gust as i wrote this, highest of the day so far)
0.94 inches of rain fallen
Heavy rain now




Thats a buoy just to my south




Thats the tide guage on my canal
we bit rough for ya lets hope its not a sign of some thing bigger down the line a ways to come and we do know the express is long overdue
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Thanks for the update Dr. Carver. Must say that I really like your writing style and how you make it really easy for anyone to understand.
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Guys I live in western Long Island on a back bay. heres my stats

Temp 64F
Dewpoint 63F
Pressure 29.79 falling rapidly
Wind ENE at 18 G29 (just got that gust as i wrote this, highest of the day so far)
0.94 inches of rain fallen
Heavy rain now




Thats a buoy just to my south




Thats the tide guage on my canal
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
A Nor'easter in July!?
as strange as it may be
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Quoting hurricane23:
The robust -AO is clearly responsible for the deep Midwest trough. The natural regression of the Bermuda ridge means that the circulation will be forcing waves toward FL/EGOM. I am a bit skeptical about some TC development next week as African systems are failing to develop once off the coast...combination of dust and some shear probably. We're still about 3 weeks away from raising my interests.

One thing of note is that I am going to be watching for areas of High pressure > 1030 mb to build into the US late AUG...if true, circulations are such that low pressure should form underneath , depending on the location of course.

Adrian


Negative AO weakens the tradewinds and weakens the upper level westerlies favoring tropical cyclone development. The AO is forecast to become more negative as we head into august.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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