Invest 98L or a nor'easter?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 AM GMT on July 24, 2009

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Hi, it's Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Dr. Masters today.

Take a look at the satellite image below:


Fig. 1 GOES IR composite at 2120 EDT, July 23 2009

What do you see? (This is like a Rorschach test for meteorologists) Well, it's got a comma head with what looks like a front extending southward. It must be a nor'easter with some pretty good precipitation bands from NY into New England. There are also plenty of coastal flood advisories out to make it seem like fall/winter. Right?


Fig. 1 Plot of severe weather advisories made at 2120 EDT, July 23 2009

Well, that's not quite the right answer. For 4 hours earlier today, this low was known as INVEST98L. I have to admit that this designation caught me by surprise. Looking at the QUIKSCAT passes and SSMI data in the dark hours of the morning (I work in the SF office), I saw an elongated cyclone that looked it had a front extending southward. That meant the feature was maybe subtropical at best, and more than likely extratropical given the model analyses available. So, color me surprised when I found out about INVEST98L and even more surprised about it's short lifespan.

Moving on and taking at look at the tropical Atlantic, there's not much in the way of tropical waves to look at on satellite except for the fresh cluster that just moved off the coast. We'll have to wait and see how that wave will develop.

Rob

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:



August will explode with development and I would not be shocked if this year becomes somewhat the same as 2004


August perhaps, but I feel it is too cool here in the northwesterly mideast (PennOhio border)for another 2004 season.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
We did have one TD but it wasn't named.

yes we did but it was in may not june and not july and it was going to be named and I wish it had
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
We did have one TD but it wasn't named.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878


Lacking a lot of convection on the eastern side of this wave.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting RitaEvac:
No storms for July

don't write off july until the 30 or 31
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yup. Lets get this baby cranked up. I have a gut feeling that we could have a 2004 season.


August will explode with development and I would not be shocked if this year becomes somewhat the same as 2004
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
102. amd
Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS and CMC show nothing through July 30th.

ECMWF shows nothing through August 3rd.

GFS shows nothing through August 9th.

54 days down
129 to go.....and it's over.
30% of the season is finished.

Totals so far.....

0
0
0.##


imho, those models seem right. It's going to be real hard to get an organized tropical system with a strong bermuda high, and a continuing el nino setup.

Way too much subsidence in the tropical atlantic currently.



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101. tropicfreak
12:50 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting RitaEvac:
No storms for July


Don't write off july yet, we could still have ana this month.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
100. tropicfreak
12:48 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting AllStar17:
Orca is right....shear is at the most favorable levels now as I have seen the whole season. I think we are about to get the real season started, folks.....


Yup. Lets get this baby cranked up. I have a gut feeling that we could have a 2004 season.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
99. RitaEvac
12:47 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
No storms for July
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
98. AllStar17
12:46 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

more west than WNW


Yeah....and the key is it will be in favorable conditions, the only hinderance would seem to be dust.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
97. wunderkidcayman
12:44 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting AllStar17:
Good morning!

Thanks for the update Dr. Carver.

If I were to bet which system will become the next invest, I would place my bets on the African wave. NHC already states it has cyclonic turning, and it is at the sfc. The Bahamian blob looks like it is already dying. So...I will be watching the African wave over the next few days as it goes west/WNW

more west than WNW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
96. AllStar17
12:43 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
Orca is right....shear is at the most favorable levels now as I have seen the whole season. I think we are about to get the real season started, folks.....
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
95. AllStar17
12:41 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
Good morning!

Thanks for the update Dr. Carver.

If I were to bet which system will become the next invest, I would place my bets on the African wave. NHC already states it has cyclonic turning, and it is at the sfc. The Bahamian blob looks like it is already dying. So...I will be watching the African wave over the next few days as it goes west/WNW
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
94. wunderkidcayman
12:39 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
good morning everyone
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
93. cg2916
12:37 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
It looks like the Bahama area is weakening, and so is the tropical wave that just came off of Africa, however there is a system still on Africa East of the Cape Verdes, that may be something to watch for. I'll be back later.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
92. nrtiwlnvragn
12:33 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
Poor mans blob floater
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11221
91. cg2916
12:33 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
Looks like people are wondering whether 99L will be next to the Bahamas or that tropical wave. I'll take a look at both and see what I think.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
90. PensacolaDoug
12:28 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
BTW all, for everyone who followed along with me and PensacolaDoug yesterday on the previous blog...

UPS delivered his gift and he loves it. His comment to me last night on the phone was "You sure are a great friend." :) Well folks, you have to know this as a fact. PensacolaDoug is a great friend to have!

Finally, you need to know what the gift was. It's a very special watercolor print from the artist Ed Gill.

It's an off-size work, so I had to have a custom frame created for it, as well as special matting. Since the predominant color of the work is yellow, I had the framers match that yellow to the very edge of the mat, so the work really pops now.

Ed Gill's aviation masterpieces are spectacular in every way. This one featuring an early trainer with a period map of Pensacola as the background freaked me out when I found it at the Aviation Arts Gallery in Laguna Beach, CA.

While I was there admiring all the space art, Buzz Aldrin came in to sign some more portraits of himself that were for sale there. That's when I met old Buzz. He is awesome, BTW!



It's beautiful Brian. Thanx bro!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 581
89. CycloneOz
12:14 PM GMT on July 24, 2009


A high building over the SE CONUS...
A UUL spinning at 30N - 55W...

And Buzz is caught in between them right now.

I guess it could get sucked up to the east, but from how the setup is right now...it practically could go anywhere it wanted to.

IMO, it's looking like it wants to go stationary and decide later.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3835
88. WxLogic
12:09 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
Well... this should be an interesting weekend as we might be able to see some development from the moderate to strong TW that just came off Africa.

GFS has been quite persistent at it... just like it was with 97L. So development of it will remain to be seen.

One interesting observation from GFS... (latest run 06Z) is that you when run the loop you can see the wave trying to develop, but after a couple days conditions become a bit hostile... and tries to take it out, but then you get another TW energy jump starting the disturbance and moving on.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
87. IKE
12:01 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
6Z NAM shows that blob east of the Bahamas, getting pulled north.

Shows high pressure building in to the SE USA.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
86. CycloneOz
12:00 PM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting sebastianflorida:
I do not expect this current Blog Page to reach 2000 posts, before new Blog Page, on new development


Agreed!

Rob is definitely gonna want to talk about Buzz (future 99L.)

I say we get to 1229 posts before he updates.

Those of us who thought we wouldn't have a named storm in July (include myself on that list, btw...) we may be eating crow come Sunday or Monday.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3835
85. sebastianflorida
11:57 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
I do not expect this current Blog Page to reach 2000 posts, before new Blog Page, on new development
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 714
84. IKE
11:56 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Not that anyone cares or should, but I had over an inch of rain in thunderstorms yesterday at my house....with no former invest around.

It rained here off and on for at least 5 hours.

Looks like it will go back to a normal summertime pattern next week in the SE USA. If there were something out in the Atlantic, which there isn't now, it would look to have a good chance of making it to the western Atlantic, Caribbean or GOM beginning next week.
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83. WxLogic
11:51 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
82. IKE
11:51 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
81. CycloneOz
11:51 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
from previous blog:

Quoting sebastianflorida:
Still thinking East of Florida for development soon, real soon, sweeps to the straights, and crawls back towards coat as it moves NNW as a Cat 1 or two.


I looked at your posts last night on the previous blog and compared them with the available imagery of Buzz (you didn't name it, sorry...) and though it wasn't much of a blob at the time, you do have a good eye.

It has so far done as you predicted it would do.

And now at this time, you may still be proven right with your above quote as far as movement goes as that is precisely where I see Buzz headed.

Cat 1? Cat 2? If it goes...this prediction too may prove true.

Good job, man! :) That was a nice catch yesterday!

If you wanna change the name, you certainly are allowed! :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3835
80. futuremet
11:51 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
The blob near the Bahamas should become an area of low pressure within the next 48hrs or so.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
79. IKE
11:47 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did it drop much rain or just annoying persistent showers


Two official NYC PWS's I checked had around a third of an inch yesterday.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
78. IKE
11:46 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N77W TO 32N71W CONTINUING N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 75W-79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED N OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N72W IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 69W-73W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N33W TO 9N29W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO INDICATE GOOD CYCLONIC TURNING IN
THE LOW-MID LEVELS. CONVECTION IS LIMITED DUE TO THE THE
PRESENCE OF A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 29W-33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN NELY FLOW ALOFT.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT.
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY DUE TO THE LACK
OF GOOD PRESENCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE DUE TO DRY SAHARAN AIR
DIRECTLY TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-22N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS IS IN THE E PACIFIC...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 94W-96W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 93W-96W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. REFER TO THE TWDEP FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE SRN PORTION OF THIS WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
77. sebastianflorida
11:42 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
I have been talking of the blob since last evening; and continue with my assessment.
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76. AussieStorm
11:41 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Yup.

Did it drop much rain or just annoying persistent showers
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75. nrtiwlnvragn
11:40 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
I was sceptical on the blob east of the Bahamas, but looking at bouy data there was a wind direction change at 27.5N 71.5W and 23.9N 70.9W. Also, 27.5N 71.5W showed a small pressure drop. Indicates to me something is at the surface. Hope QuikScat catches it.


Edit: Of course, this morning's QuikScat missed it.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11221
74. sebastianflorida
11:39 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
FROM Central Florida Hurrica (respected site)
The interesting item today... There is a plume of convection that shot southeast from the old 97L that is holding together interestingly this morning, which is the only thing worth watching at the moment. Right now it's a "blob", that if it persists a good 24 hours has a chance to do something.

Odds are that it will not, but it is the only thing going at the moment. However, these are the types of frontal/trough remnants you look for in development. For flare ups like these, Persistence is the key..



More to come later...

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73. IKE
11:38 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

I noticed the Yankies v Athletics game had a 2hr 35min rain delay. Was that due to 98L?


Yup.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
72. AussieStorm
11:38 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting HurrikanEB:
you know, I was hoping to get at least some rain out of this system, but its had a fairly defined "cut off line" on the western side= new york didnt get any rain like they were calling for.

I noticed the Yankies v Athletics game had a 2hr 35min rain delay. Was that due to 98L?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
71. CycloneOz
11:34 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Uh Oh....



Buzz Blob has an "X" on it just like the "X" in our logo...




I'll really be watchin' it now! :(
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70. futuremet
11:26 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Models continue to strengthen the ridge over the east coast.


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69. IKE
11:26 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
WOW!

No wonder....a choke job....awesome...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
68. CycloneOz
11:21 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
BTW all, for everyone who followed along with me and PensacolaDoug yesterday on the previous blog...

UPS delivered his gift and he loves it. His comment to me last night on the phone was "You sure are a great friend." :) Well folks, you have to know this as a fact. PensacolaDoug is a great friend to have!

Finally, you need to know what the gift was. It's a very special watercolor print from the artist Ed Gill.

It's an off-size work, so I had to have a custom frame created for it, as well as special matting. Since the predominant color of the work is yellow, I had the framers match that yellow to the very edge of the mat, so the work really pops now.

Ed Gill's aviation masterpieces are spectacular in every way. This one featuring an early trainer with a period map of Pensacola as the background freaked me out when I found it at the Aviation Arts Gallery in Laguna Beach, CA.

While I was there admiring all the space art, Buzz Aldrin came in to sign some more portraits of himself that were for sale there. That's when I met old Buzz. He is awesome, BTW!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3835
67. IKE
11:18 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
NOGAPS and CMC show nothing through July 30th.

ECMWF shows nothing through August 3rd.

GFS shows nothing through August 9th.

54 days down
129 to go.....and it's over.
30% of the season is finished.

Totals so far.....

0
0
0.##
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
66. CycloneOz
11:07 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


That will work; as long as it does not turn into a "Buzz Saw" later on down the road.... :)


I actually thought of that when I wrote the name "Buzz."

All I can say is beware 99L.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3835
65. weathermanwannabe
11:05 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
Beat 'cha by 1 minute WWbe! :)

Does that mean I get to give it a "pre-invest" name (i.e. Ralph.)

If so, I'll name it Buzz.

So there ya go. It's Blob Buzz for now, okay? :)


That will work; as long as it does not turn into a "Buzz Saw" later on down the road.... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9261
64. CycloneOz
11:04 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Good Morning Oz; looks like we were on the same page as we both typed...


I agree. Looks like I can type 1 minute faster than you can! LOL!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3835
63. CycloneOz
11:03 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Beat 'cha by 1 minute WWbe! :)

Does that mean I get to give it a "pre-invest" name (i.e. Ralph.)

If so, I'll name it Buzz.

So there ya go. It's Blob Buzz for now, okay? :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3835
62. crownwx
11:02 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
I went beyond looking at the short-term this morning and took a look at long-term prospects for the next 7-14 days and I think we may want to
watch an area from just east of the Bahamas westward through the Bahamas and then westward from there into the Gulf of Mexico. The reason for
this is because the overall pattern is looking favorable for close-in development as a high pressure system builds westward; in fact the 7 to
10 day 500 millibar forecast shows the mean trough shifting back to the west and allowing for a ridge of high pressure to extend westward to
the northeast Gulf of Mexico, so what this means is that any approaching tropical disturbances will #1 be in a much more favorable
environment and #2 will have a much harder time curving out into the open Atlantic and pushing
further west. None of the forecast guidance is forecasting any tropical development for the next 7 to 10 days in the western Atlantic,
Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, however, this should be taken with a grain of salt as the models sometimes do not pick up on close
in development and looking at the pattern over the next 10 days, I think we will need to watch things closely from the southwest Atlantic
westward into the Gulf of Mexico.

Member Since: December 27, 2004 Posts: 3 Comments: 207
61. weathermanwannabe
10:59 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
Looks like a blob has broken free from that "Nor'easter" and is heading south from 24N - 71W.

Still very warm waters right there and the shear seems to be dropping a bit, looks like it's trying to coalesce and develop some convection. With it's current position in the steering currents, the GoM may have not closed one of its doors hard enough....

Hmmmm...

You know, since everyone else is watching that African wave, I'll keep an eye on this one for ya'll just in case.


Good Morning Oz; looks like we were on the same page as we both typed...
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60. weathermanwannabe
10:58 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Good Morning Folks.........That little "blob" near the Bahamas looks interesting this am. Looks like a classic trof/frontal remnant and sheer is low and waters are warm around it right now.....Will have to see if it can persist after fully separating from the flow to it's North.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9261
59. CycloneOz
10:57 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Looks like a blob has broken free from that "Nor'easter" and is heading south from 24N - 71W.

Still very warm waters right there and the shear seems to be dropping a bit, looks like it's trying to coalesce and develop some convection. With it's current position in the steering currents, the GoM may not have closed one of its doors hard enough....

Hmmmm...

You know, since everyone else is watching that African wave, I'll keep an eye on this one for ya'll just in case.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3835
58. VVxGirl
10:52 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
trying to post gfs...not sure how its done...here's the link

Link
Member Since: February 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 73
57. CycloneOz
10:40 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
I like Rob's style at the end of the blog! :)

"Nuthin' to see here people, move along now." :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3835

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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