Invest 98L or a nor'easter?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 AM GMT on July 24, 2009

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Hi, it's Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Dr. Masters today.

Take a look at the satellite image below:


Fig. 1 GOES IR composite at 2120 EDT, July 23 2009

What do you see? (This is like a Rorschach test for meteorologists) Well, it's got a comma head with what looks like a front extending southward. It must be a nor'easter with some pretty good precipitation bands from NY into New England. There are also plenty of coastal flood advisories out to make it seem like fall/winter. Right?


Fig. 1 Plot of severe weather advisories made at 2120 EDT, July 23 2009

Well, that's not quite the right answer. For 4 hours earlier today, this low was known as INVEST98L. I have to admit that this designation caught me by surprise. Looking at the QUIKSCAT passes and SSMI data in the dark hours of the morning (I work in the SF office), I saw an elongated cyclone that looked it had a front extending southward. That meant the feature was maybe subtropical at best, and more than likely extratropical given the model analyses available. So, color me surprised when I found out about INVEST98L and even more surprised about it's short lifespan.

Moving on and taking at look at the tropical Atlantic, there's not much in the way of tropical waves to look at on satellite except for the fresh cluster that just moved off the coast. We'll have to wait and see how that wave will develop.

Rob

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Here's a kick in the behind blog friends...I live in the least probable area on the U.S. East Coast for tropical activity (Jersey Shore) and MY area took it on the chin probably the worst from yesterday's 98L. It was not unlike other (minor) tropical events of the past, at least on the direct coast.
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_12z/gfsloop.html

The GFS 925mb Vorticity forecast shows something breaking off of the trough at about 24 hrs near 30N70W. What does this exactly mean?
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


It is in a dry enviroment and dealing with SAL though

Agreed, if it can keep due west, it might stand a chance as shear seems to be at its lowest now in the MDR
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Quoting seflagamma:
new blog thread up from Dr Masters.
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Destinjeff,
I'm still trying to remember your "Hebert's Litter Box" joke...something about every time your cat stepped in it, something happened.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11280
After looking at the current visible loop and focusing on the new Bahama blog, I see a few interesting things about it.

1) It just outflowed from every side within the last couple of hours.

2) Is that a low pressure developing on the western flank?

3) Is it trying to develop a spin?

It looks like a very iffy blob right now. That one thing is for sure.

The problem I have with animations is that when I stare at them for so long, I begin to see things that aren't really there.
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TampaSpins Tropical Update
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
new blog thread up from Dr Masters.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I still think the area around 10N/43W bears watching, conditions seems about as prime as they been so far this season for development.

Agree, Petrol. That's what worries me,too.
Been watching that area like a hawk!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11280
Quoting sporteguy03:



I just wonder when all the energy in the Tropics will be released.


Not this year!!!!
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I still think the area around 10N/43W bears watching, conditions seems about as prime as they been so far this season for development.


It is in a dry enviroment and dealing with SAL though
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

don't write off july until the 30 or 31

August will explode with development and I would not be shocked if this year becomes somewhat the same as 2004

NOOOOOO!!!!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11280
I still think the area around 10N/43W bears watching, conditions seems about as prime as they been so far this season for development.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Surface map

KEH see if this works
Thanks... that is exactly what I was looking for. Much appreciated.
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Re #123 and #139:
Thanks guys.
I cannot read those maps.
Don't have that gene.
Not saying women can't, however, as there are several on this blog who can and do!
Just not me.
I'm better at art, literature than math, science. It's all good.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11280
Surface map

KEH see if this works

Link
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Got your mail junky! And you've got a reply.
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Good morning folks,

Just a quick drop in before work.

Chicklit - a different point of view - looking from top of the world - thanks.

I am looking for a surface map that includes the East Atlantic.
There is this which is on of my favorites, but I wanted something showing tropical waves a bit more clearly.

Thanking you in advance.
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area 10N 44W


Link
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137. IKE
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The area 10N 44W is showing some form of organisation. it is a pertabation from the ITCZ.
This could be the next invest and i suspect ANA
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135. IKE
What a surprise...troughs in the east on the 12Z NAM at 60 hours....notice a pattern here?

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Sorry about that...the answer is truely really. :)

My ability to read sheet music got in the way just then and I brain farted.

LOL....(I'll go get some coffee and wake up....)
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133. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:



I just wonder when all the energy in the Tropics will be released.


I don't know.

I can tell you when it won't be released in the Atlantic and that's through the end of July.

Probably by mid-August with an end to the season for me by mid-October.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Really?


Yes... really. Do you know how to read wind barbs?
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Quoting amd:


imho, those models seem right. It's going to be real hard to get an organized tropical system with a strong bermuda high, and a continuing el nino setup.

Way too much subsidence in the tropical atlantic currently.



Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


Hi all,
Just checking back on this board as I liked coming on here during the seasons before. Now, I am born and raised Miami and now live on the Treasure Coast but in all my years (40+) I never even started thinking about hurricane probability until at least late mid to late August. I know we have had a season here and there with earlier but does anyone really expect to see any real "action" until that time? I'm just curious statistically? Best regards!
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Quoting RufusBaker:
...If there was a storm coming into the gulf now it would be steered right towards the west coast of FL...


Really?


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Quoting StormChaser81:


I agree and I live in St. Petersburg, FL. My house is only 3 ft above sea level. I would be in serious trouble even with a strong cat 2.
Downtown Tampa would be in trouble with a strong TS. Bayshore floods with strong cold fronts
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Quoting sporteguy03:



I just wonder when all the energy in the Tropics will be released.
Haha... for me personally, a lot was released on Tuesday night over the Dominican Republic as 97l moved over. Wind was gusting to 60 mph with constant lightning and over 5 inches of rain. Great storm to watch from the beach. :)
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Quoting RufusBaker:
I am in FL and these stalled out fronts that we are getting are bothering me. If there was a storm coming into the gulf now it would be steered right towards the west coast of FL. This could be the year that Tampa gets the big one.


I agree and I live in St. Petersburg, FL. My house is only 3 ft above sea level. I would be in serious trouble even with a strong cat 2.
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Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS and CMC show nothing through July 30th.

ECMWF shows nothing through August 3rd.

GFS shows nothing through August 9th.

54 days down
129 to go.....and it's over.
30% of the season is finished.

Totals so far.....

0
0
0.##



I just wonder when all the energy in the Tropics will be released.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5278
I am in FL and these stalled out fronts that we are getting are bothering me. If there was a storm coming into the gulf now it would be steered right towards the west coast of FL. This could be the year that Tampa gets the big one.
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Quoting Chicklit:
pennstate meterology
here's a project!


This site is indeed pretty awesome. Great functionality, really good displays.

It's near the top of my weather favorites now! :)

Thank you very much for posting! :)

PS: I rarely do this. I gave you a "plus" vote on your post! :)
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122. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Ike I care about your rain should be a hot one today? I hear 95 degrees in Defuniak Springs.


Today
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms...mainly before 2 PM. Highs 89 to 94. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
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Quoting IKE:
Not that anyone cares or should, but I had over an inch of rain in thunderstorms yesterday at my house....with no former invest around.

It rained here off and on for at least 5 hours.

Looks like it will go back to a normal summertime pattern next week in the SE USA. If there were something out in the Atlantic, which there isn't now, it would look to have a good chance of making it to the western Atlantic, Caribbean or GOM beginning next week.


Ike I care about your rain should be a hot one today? I hear 95 degrees in Defuniak Springs.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5278
Quoting weatherskink:
Cool air over SoFla lately (500mb) .


huh?
Good morning but...just wondering where that came from?
We are in the 90's everyday and many days breaking heat records.... where are you from in South Florida?

The heat we have this summer is very unusual for South Florida, especially SE Florida.. we don't hit 90's everyday "normally"

Good morning everyone.
Hope all is well and we have no systems
coming to harm anyone this year.

Gams
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Cool air over SoFla lately (500mb) .
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pennstate meterology
here's a project!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11280
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
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morning
the area 10N 43W seems to be a pertabation in the itcz. sometimes disturbances can form from such features. i will continue to look at this area for signs of cyclogenesis
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Quoting jaycoyote:


August perhaps, but I feel it is too cool here in the northwesterly mideast (PennOhio border)for another 2004 season.


That has nothing to do with how bad a hurricane season will be. GOM temperatures are really hot and certain spots in the carribean waters are hot as well. These kinds of fronts that are diving further from the north and keeping the midwest and east states cooler are perfect for curving storms that enter the GOM right into land. It's all about the timing. Because if the front is further east it will curve the storm up the east coast or out to sea (fish storm).
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2004 Named Storms and Their History

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876
Check this out:
sittinontopoftheworld

Mornin' wunderweatherfolk, something really cute about 97L being part of the blob now 'dropping out of the sky' so to speak.
i think albert einstein was also fond of watching the weather. if he had satellite pictures to watch maybe he wouldn't have gotten so much accomplished in his life! lol
when the tropics are slow, more gets done.
i wonder if sal is really thick enough to stop development if something were able to get a foothold right now.
tgif everyone!
awesome!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11280
Still putting my money on development though
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Quoting CycloneOz:
from previous blog:



I looked at your posts last night on the previous blog and compared them with the available imagery of Buzz (you didn't name it, sorry...) and though it wasn't much of a blob at the time, you do have a good eye.

It has so far done as you predicted it would do.

And now at this time, you may still be proven right with your above quote as far as movement goes as that is precisely where I see Buzz headed.

Cat 1? Cat 2? If it goes...this prediction too may prove true.

Good job, man! :) That was a nice catch yesterday!

If you wanna change the name, you certainly are allowed! :)
Well, we'll see, however the darn thing looks less impresive now than 3 hours ago.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:



August will explode with development and I would not be shocked if this year becomes somewhat the same as 2004


August perhaps, but I feel it is too cool here in the northwesterly mideast (PennOhio border)for another 2004 season.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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