Quiet in the Atlantic; total eclipse darkens Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on July 22, 2009

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The strong tropical wave (97L) we've been tracking all week has now moved over the Bahamas, and remains disorganized, thanks to 30 knots of wind shear and a traumatic encounter with the island of Hispaniola. This wave should remain disorganized for at least the next two days, thanks to high wind shear.

The new tropical disturbance north of the central Bahama Islands is lifting northwards towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds of 30 - 35 mph, but no evidence of a closed circulation. This region is under about 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and has the potential for some slow development over the next few days as it moves northwards, parallel to the coast. This low probably does not have enough time over warm water to reach tropical depression status. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next seven days, though the tropical disturbance north of the central Bahamas may develop into an extratropical storm capable of dumping heavy rain on the Canadian Maritime provinces late this week.

I won't be making a post Thursday, since I'll be traveling. Wunderground's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will make a post if a new Invest pops up. Dr. Carver has started his own blog--check out his cool satellite loops of this morning's total eclipse in Asia.

Jeff Masters

Solar Eclipse (daniellih)
the greatest solar eclipse in this century! in Taiwan, we got partial eclipse! mine was 78% coverage! wonderful! i started to watch it at 8:00 am and ended at 11:10 am!
Solar Eclipse

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1611. gwhite713
9:05 AM GMT on July 26, 2009
Correct up to date map:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Member Since: December 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
1610. gwhite713
9:02 AM GMT on July 26, 2009
This exposes how NOAA miscued and falsely claimed warmer ocean temps.. Problem is Data dosent support it:
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/noaas_hot_streak_continues_despite_clear_cooling1/

Incorrect data map:



Now for the real Data chart temp:



If you also read and study it. Noaa is the only source saying sea surface temps are up, as well as very fishy how they their numbers add up, they dont.
Member Since: December 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
1609. BurnedAfterPosting
1:54 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
NEW BLOG!!!
1608. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:52 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting victoria780:
Looks like Psycogenesis is taking shape on this blog>><<

Quoting Drakoen:


More like dramagenesis
one of the two all the same pull up a chair sit awhile
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54635
1607. potteryX
1:52 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Still a lot of dry air over the Trop. Atl., but the SAL seems to be retreating fast.
Does the CV wave have a chance?
Stay tuned for more. And, if you blink, you might miss it.
1606. hurricane23
1:49 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
The robust -AO is clearly responsible for the deep Midwest trough. The natural regression of the Bermuda ridge means that the circulation will be forcing waves toward FL/EGOM. I am a bit skeptical about some TC development next week as African systems are failing to develop once off the coast...combination of dust and some shear probably. We're still about 3 + weeks away from raising my interests.

One thing of note is that I am going to be watching for areas of High pressure > 1030 mb to build into the US late AUG...if true, circulations are such that low pressure should form underneath , depending on the location of course.

Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
1605. GatorWX
1:47 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting GatorWX:
This trof

lol, our little daily reminder, you're going to jinx us GA boy!!!


Not sure what that is???? I think I was going to type something earlier today, but I didn't erase when I reloaded if anyone was thinking "what the heck is he trying to say."
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3595
1604. TexasHurricane
1:46 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39:
negative nao pattern does not looked good for GOM or S FL.


meaning?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1603. GatorWX
1:45 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
This trof
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
29% of the way through hurricane season and all's well!


lol, our little daily reminder, you're going to jinx us GA boy!!!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3595
1601. Dakster
1:39 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting victoria780:
Looks like Psycogenesis is taking shape on this blog>><<


ROFLMAO - I just fell off my chair and spit pepsi through my nose when I read that.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10539
1600. hurricane23
1:38 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Futuremet,

Sometimes the long wave pattern in August shifts from what it was in July; and August is more likely to have ridging in the W. Atlantic than Sept or Oct, that's for sure. I hope it is correct. BUT, I have no faith in any forecast over 84 hrs. And the usual term for the long wave to be in any one general position is 6-10 days.

Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
1599. StormFreakyisher
1:36 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting FloridaTigers:


Well, I did hear the set up would be closer to 2004.

Thanks!You make us feel a lot better!Now all Floridian bloggers are going to freak out.I'm moving out of Florida.J.K.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1598. futuremet
1:33 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting PortABeachBum:
Here! I thought I had Futuremet on my POOF!! list. I guess not. Try, Try, Again.


LOL what did I ever do to you?

thanks everyone...
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
1597. atmoaggie
1:32 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
How come we cannot "-" our own posts? What if I need to report myself?

L8R
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1596. weathermanwannabe
1:31 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Good Night Folks and Happy Hunting; if there was an active system out there right now, I'd be right there with Yall into the wee hours.... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264
1595. atmoaggie
1:31 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
You Guys ever eat or sleep?


Overrated.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1594. sebastianflorida
1:29 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Still thinking East of Florida for development soon, real soon, sweeps to the straights, and crawls back towards coat as it moves NNW as a Cat 1 or two.
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 714
1593. aquak9
1:27 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Cyclonic Cyclic Dramagenesis

CCD syndrome, often invest-related
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
1592. Drakoen
1:25 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting atmoaggie:


You left out the other part: Usually involving a circular argument cycle that is to be repeated hourly.


That's Cyclic Dramagenesis
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30577
1591. weathermanwannabe
1:19 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
You Guys ever eat or sleep?......Checked in this morning for a few, been gone all day, and am working late at the office tonight. About to turn off the computer, checking in, and many of you are still here from this monring........Ever heard of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome?......Lol
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264
1589. atmoaggie
1:05 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
Dramagenesis (n.)- the development or strengthening of drama


You left out the other part: Usually involving a circular argument cycle that is to be repeated hourly.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1588. Makoto1
1:04 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
I'm working on tropical invest 92L report. 90L has already been completed.





I'll definitely be looking forward to that, I loved your 90L report.
1587. Drakoen
1:03 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Dramagenesis (n.)- the development or strengthening of drama
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30577
1586. atmoaggie
1:02 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sounds like a supervisers call should always move workers from outside jobsite whenever lightening is within 3 miles of site last year when we did all of the high rises baloneys whenever storms were in area i always stopped all work drop swing stages to the ground if weather lasted longer than three hrs call it quits for the day


You are presuming here that any existing supervisory personnel and the workers themselves are actually capable of verbal communication. I can tell ya, having been in PA aplenty, that crew probably spoke 3 different languages and no single person probably could speak more than one.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1585. victoria780
1:01 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:


More like dramagenesis
Of coarse just joking,I have half a brain now since I started reading the input from you bloggers.Keep up the great work..
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
1584. TampaFLUSA
12:59 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting popartpete:
The weather on the mid-Jersey shore has ENDED. So much for 98L, but I bet we saw the most action!

How was it?
Member Since: June 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657
1583. Drakoen
12:59 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting victoria780:
Looks like Psycogenesis is taking shape on this blog>><<


More like dramagenesis
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30577
1582. popartpete
12:56 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
The weather on the mid-Jersey shore has ENDED. So much for 98L, but I bet we saw the most action!
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
1581. victoria780
12:50 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


well they do name subtropical storms; so yeah

it looks almost identical to STS Andrea from 2007
Looks like Psycogenesis is taking shape on this blog>><<
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
1580. BurnedAfterPosting
12:47 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:


It looks SubTropical...but, could have been named possibly.


well they do name subtropical storms; so yeah

it looks almost identical to STS Andrea from 2007
1579. Drakoen
12:47 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


92L deserved a name, just my opinion


The strongest winds were close to the center and the core was 1-2 degrees warmer than the surrounding environment.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30577
1578. TampaSpin
12:46 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


92L deserved a name, just my opinion


It looks SubTropical...but, could have been named possibly.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1577. BurnedAfterPosting
12:44 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
I'm working on tropical invest 92L report. 90L has already been completed.





92L deserved a name, just my opinion
1576. Patrap
12:43 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Fascinating..

A Fish Story.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1575. TampaSpin
12:40 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
PatRap that invest went Zippity do da...gone.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1574. Cavin Rawlins
12:40 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
I'm working on tropical invest 92L report. 90L has already been completed.



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1573. TampaSpin
12:38 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Just looked at the GFS long range model....I really don't see really much until the about 10 days out....I sure would not put much stock into that far out.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1572. Patrap
12:38 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1571. stormsurge39
12:38 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
negative nao pattern does not looked good for GOM or S FL.
1570. Drakoen
12:34 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting PortABeachBum:


Too verbose! Not learning from others.

Not wanting to appear as a troll, I will not appear here again tonight. Thanks to those who had something substantive to say about the GOM.


I warned him about that. Grandiloquent use of the language.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30577
1569. Cavin Rawlins
12:34 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
last fall/winter had a negative NAO

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1568. BurnedAfterPosting
12:33 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
well Pat maybe if you put up a pic of your cute puppy it will help inspire other to post pics lol
1567. Dakster
12:33 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39:
Did i read right, that during august a bermuda high is setting in,and recurve on storms more than likely wont happen?


That would just blow chunks... Don't mind watching 'canes miss us. It is a neat sight to see. Don't like it when they hit land...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10539
1566. stormsurge39
12:32 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Thank you 456, the wave at 10w looks stong!
1565. TampaSpin
12:32 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
So NHC already declassed the INvest...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
1564. Patrap
12:31 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Where's the Images..?

Im Lost..

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1563. Cavin Rawlins
12:30 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 is one of those waves the one coming off now??


It does seem to be the wave near the cape verdes (28W) since the models intialize the area around Sunday meaning a later wave. It seems a wave either near 10W or emerging is what the models want to develop.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1562. stormwatcherCI
12:26 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


With the two tone talk, the two tone? lol
You have to give props to the few on here that know what they are talking about and Futuremet is one of them so I don't know what he is talking about.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8399
1561. stormsurge39
12:26 AM GMT on July 24, 2009
Did i read right, that during august a bermuda high is setting in,and recurve on storms more than likely wont happen?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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