Quiet in the Atlantic; total eclipse darkens Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on July 22, 2009

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The strong tropical wave (97L) we've been tracking all week has now moved over the Bahamas, and remains disorganized, thanks to 30 knots of wind shear and a traumatic encounter with the island of Hispaniola. This wave should remain disorganized for at least the next two days, thanks to high wind shear.

The new tropical disturbance north of the central Bahama Islands is lifting northwards towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds of 30 - 35 mph, but no evidence of a closed circulation. This region is under about 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and has the potential for some slow development over the next few days as it moves northwards, parallel to the coast. This low probably does not have enough time over warm water to reach tropical depression status. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next seven days, though the tropical disturbance north of the central Bahamas may develop into an extratropical storm capable of dumping heavy rain on the Canadian Maritime provinces late this week.

I won't be making a post Thursday, since I'll be traveling. Wunderground's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will make a post if a new Invest pops up. Dr. Carver has started his own blog--check out his cool satellite loops of this morning's total eclipse in Asia.

Jeff Masters

Solar Eclipse (daniellih)
the greatest solar eclipse in this century! in Taiwan, we got partial eclipse! mine was 78% coverage! wonderful! i started to watch it at 8:00 am and ended at 11:10 am!
Solar Eclipse

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98L 12Z GFDL

HOUR: .0 LONG: -74.78 LAT: 35.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1013.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.40
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -74.69 LAT: 36.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.05 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.97
-99.9 -99.90 -99.90

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
we might finally have a long trekker in the WPAC; looks like 91C crossed the dateline and has strengthened again

it is now 98W and it looking pretty good
Quoting WxLogic:
Quite interesting... now that any threatening TW are not in the Carib or ATL see... the shear is pretty relaxed.

Given the high octane available in the GOM and W Carib sea (specially)... will be interesting to see if anything attempts to take shape in the upcoming week to 2 weeks as moisture is expected to increase quite a bit in the W Carib, W ATL and GOM... do see that primarily being enhanced by a pesky upper trough sitting in the C to W GOM...


yes, it will be. Makes me think of Hurricane Humberto....
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999mb?
Note: Not surface winds, but at 900mb
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
1207. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting WeatherStudent:
rainy afternoon here in fort. laddy-daddy right now.
rain i've had a boat load of rain here today heavy rain since 7 am its now just after 1 and its just letting up
we have had 2.76 inches so far and they say a little more yet to come
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
1206. SQUAWK
Hey look, it is a low and it is rotating. My oh my. Counter clockwise even.

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BBL,

Developing East Coast Gale; 250th Blog Post




Atlantic City, NJ

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Hey everyone.

Been lurking alot this year. With all the atlantic activity- or lack there of- I've been able to follow the Pacific more than usual.

Anyway, i was just wondering if there was a site where I could find a list of the latest seasons to get started. I remember in 05 when I came across some site that had the earliest forming storms of each letter. I was just wondering if there was one for latest forming?



I was wondering this exact thing....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey everyone.

Been lurking alot this year. With all the atlantic activity- or lack there of- I've been able to follow the Pacific more than usual.

Anyway, i was just wondering if there was a site where I could find a list of the latest seasons to get started. I remember in 05 when I came across some site that had the earliest forming storms of each letter. I was just wondering if there was one for latest forming?

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1200. Drakoen
Looking at the GFS forecast for the next two weeks there will be intermit periods where shear decreases in the Caribbean. In the tropical Altantic, upper level high pressure will become more dominant as the TUTT axis lifts to the north in that region.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
Back in 2003 I was looking at the models and thought Ana would be a spring type extratropical low. I actually lost a bet when Ana was named.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1197. WxLogic
Quite interesting... now that any threatening TW are not in the Carib or ATL see... the shear is pretty relaxed.

Given the high octane available in the GOM and W Carib sea (specially)... will be interesting to see if anything attempts to take shape in the upcoming week to 2 weeks as moisture is expected to increase quite a bit in the W Carib, W ATL and GOM... do see that primarily being enhanced by a pesky upper trough sitting in the C to W GOM...
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


and it looked very similar to this


Not really.
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Post 1188, Drakoen.
I have been thinking that as well.
The ONLY factor that could stop big problems there, would be windshear.
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Quoting Weather456:
Ana 2003 a subtropical storm before it fully transitioned.


and it looked very similar to this
Anyone feel that the GOM will have an intense storm this season? Any gut feelings? maybe where it might go? just curious....
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Ana 2003 a subtropical storm before it fully transitioned.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Wouldnt that already make it subtropical in nature?


Not necessarily. There are other types of systems which possess warm-core signtures but are not subtropical. Warm seclusions, polar lows and warm occulsions.

In this case we saw how the tropical moisture and energy from 97L and other interacts surge north into the genesis point of this system, which would help justify the organize convection but the criteria for subtropical storms is broader, such as winds near to the center, warm-core at 200 mb and lack of frontal features. It also says this system still has a window of opportunity to become subtropical before interacting with a frontal zone.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1188. Drakoen
When we do get storms they will probably be very intense especially those that form in the Caribbean, Bahamas, and GOM. This is the year to look out for home grown development with the chance for some aggressive waves to move through the CATL and enter these core regions.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
I think this is a ST storm right now
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Weird, here it is July and we have a nor'easter, but nothing tropical...
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Quoting Weather456:


I stated in my update this morning that this low pressure area will carry tropical characteristics with it since there was an influx of tropical heat and moisture associated with the genesis of the low. More so than usual for developing gale systems.


Wouldnt that already make it subtropical in nature?
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
if I wasn't smart I would think this was a TS heading right toward NYC I know it isnt but it looks that way on radar


I stated in my update this morning that this low pressure area will carry tropical characteristics with it since there was an influx of tropical heat and moisture associated with the genesis of the low. More so than usual for developing gale systems.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1182. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:
Night all. Play safe.


Sweet dreams to the land down under.....
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Quoting IKE:


Bay Of Campeche.


oh, ok. Thanks
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1179. Engine2
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
if I wasn't smart I would think this was a TS heading right toward NYC I know it isnt but it looks that way on radar

Ha yea definitely does
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1177. IKE
Quoting TexasHurricane:


BOC?


Bay Of Campeche.
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Night all. Play safe.
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if I wasn't smart I would think this was a TS heading right toward NYC I know it isnt but it looks that way on radar
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Quoting IKE:


Looks like most of the moisture goes through the BOC vs. heading for SE TX. according to the GFS.


BOC?
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1172. hahaguy
Quoting Drakoen:
The waters in the Caribbean, Central GOM, and Western Bahamas are scorching with high heat and depth.

Scared to see a storm make it to there.
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1171. IKE
Quoting TexasHurricane:
"I got this from their 346 pm discussion...

BY SUN AFTERNOON INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL TROF WILL
APPROACH THE REGION...ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR 90...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN REMAINING
IN THE MID 70S."

This still the case? Any changes?


Looks like most of the moisture goes through the BOC vs. heading for SE TX. according to the GFS.
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1169. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:
It also has an eye, lol j/k.


Looks like some rotation.
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1168. IKE
12Z GFS.....
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"I got this from their 346 pm discussion...

BY SUN AFTERNOON INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL TROF WILL
APPROACH THE REGION...ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR 90...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN REMAINING
IN THE MID 70S."

This still the case? Any changes?
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According to the SHIPS 98L has a very brief opportunity to become a subtropical storm at best. SSTs drop off to sub 20C in 24 hours.
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It also has an eye, lol j/k.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Drakoen:
The waters in the Caribbean, Central GOM, and Western Bahamas are scorching with high heat and depth.


Any disturbance, or storm gets in that area under favorable conditions, watch out! RI potential would be pretty high!
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!

I have a new synopsis posted.

TIA!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 23, 2009 ISSUED 12:30 P.M. EDT


Nice update as always, Storm :)

Sounds like the newly emerged wave off Africa will need to be watched; and sounds like 98L has a brief window for subtropical development.
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Tropical storm force winds, gonna be gusty along those coasts.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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