Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting WeatherStudent:
I'll believe Drak this latest go around. Because Drak ALWAYS provides factual facts for his findings. In contrary to Adrian, that's for damn sure. :)

Many here thought 97L was going to develope and hit florida in the face of a southerly jet producing a very hostile upper air environment.

Hopefully august has some interesting storms to track.

Quoting WeatherStudent:


He does, but he's more of a meteorological freelancer when it comes to his futuristic forecasts. You caught my drift there?

A what? :)

Quoting hurricane23:
Hopefully august has some interesting storms to track.

With the way things are shaping up, I think that will be a good bet. :)

Tommorow's friday! Get out an enjoy the weekend the tropics should be worry free for a while.

Quoting Drakoen:
Potentially dangerous August set-up with the Bermuda high.

I'm new to the board and I would like to know what you mean by this.
Could it be possible that Dade County is in a path of a storm in August?

Quoting missmaxi:


I'm new to the board and I would like to know what you mean by this.
Could it be possible that Dade County is in a path of a storm in August?

We don't pinpoint specific areas. That is impossible to tell that far out. I do, however, put certain areas at higher than average risk.

Sitting here in Brooklyn, NY and having a chuckle over the tropical weather we're having. I was watching 97L all along thinking it might threaten my home in South, FL only to have the Bahama's system give me a shower today... You just can't predict the tropics.

Quoting hurricane23:
Hopefully august has some interesting storms to track.

Hopefully August will have NO storms to track!!!

Quoting Drakoen:


We don't pinpoint specific areas. That is impossible to tell that far out. I do, however, put certain areas at higher than average risk.

Thanks for your response. I believe I am in the higher risk area.

Quoting PortABeachBum:


Hopefully August will have NO storms to track!!!

Im with you... wouldnt it be nice to set a record for NO named systems this year.

Quoting PortABeachBum:


Hopefully August will have NO storms to track!!!

you're boring

Hopefully we will get systems to track.

Drak,

what do you think about the African wave? StormW is watching it....your thoughts?

I would wager there are very few, if any, people who are posting on this blog because they hate tropical cyclones and don't want to see any. Nothing wrong with saying one likes to track these storms. It's not as if our wishes are going to have any impact on what happens.

Quoting Drakoen:
Hopefully we will get systems to track.

This, though a lot of fish storms would be the best. I would personally take a hurricane like Dog in 1950; a 185 mph Category 5 in the open ocean with no chance of striking land.

post 1359, MissMaxi.
It is possible that Dade County will have a hurricane this year. But it is also possible that there will be no hurricanes at all.
There really is no way to know that, and anyone that says differently is trying to scare you.

I dont hope for storms to track but obviously storms come regardless of what anybody wants... thats where this site comes in. I see this site as a VERY good resource to track storms and get insight beyond what the TV stations tell us.

Quoting fire635:


Im with you... wouldnt it be nice to set a record for NO named systems this year.

>_>

I think some people are forgetting that 2004 also started this late (granted, this year, a Modiki El Nino is not present like in 2004, just saying), and 2009 is certainly not the only year that started late.

I'm sorry, but don't let two months of no activity get you complacent.

Quoting KoritheMan:


This, though a lot of fish storms would be the best. I would personally take a hurricane like Dog in 1950; a 185 mph Category 5 in the open ocean with no chance of striking land.

true

Being Prepared is Key to being ready for a Hurricane.


Hurricane Preparation

Quoting Patrap:

Look at all that rain on my very front doorstep. Is Tropical Storm Nothing making non-landfall, or is it a non-official direct hit here?
Winds are sharply up, 25 out of the NE, Barometer down now to 29.91. Ocean waves are huge, it is said, although the beaches are not flooding, yet.

Quoting KoritheMan:


>_>

I think some people are forgetting that 2004 also started this late (granted, this year, a Modiki El Nino is not present like in 2004, just saying), and 2009 is certainly not the only year that started late.

I'm sorry, but don't let two months of no activity get you complacent.

Certainly not complacent here. Ive been into weather long enough to know that it is unpredictable and just because one thing happens doesnt mean another thing will happen. 1 + 1 does not always = 2 in weather

Quoting Drakoen:


We don't pinpoint specific areas. That is impossible to tell that far out. I do, however, put certain areas at higher than average risk.

Where would you put Texas in that risk area?

98L looks good on radar imagery. Not tropical but something interesting no doubt.

Missmaxi, read the link at post 1379.
If you are in any doubt, be well prepared.

Quoting fire635:


Certainly not complacent here. Ive been into weather long enough to know that it is unpredictable and just because one thing happens doesnt mean another thing will happen. 1 + 1 does not always = 2 in weather

Well said.

Where would you put Texas in that risk area?

below Oklahoma and next to New Mexico....

LOL, you beat me to it Amy.

Quoting Weather456:
98L looks good on radar imagery. Not tropical but something interesting no doubt.

It will still have the impact of a tropical depression.

I still think based on the NAO pattern that the highest risk areas are along the US east coast. Also:

1) Some claim this will be an El Nino type year where most developments occur between 20N and 40N

2) Development seems alot closer to home to home this year.

Quoting Drakoen:
Hopefully we will get systems to track.

Perhaps Fire 635 can relate to this barrier Island that had Celia(3 Aug 1970) to contend with.

Sorry, WAHA, boring is better than wishcasting.

Drakoen, I respect your many insights as to what goes on in the tropics. Keep up the good work.

Sorry All, I'l go back to lurking and learning!

Beach Bum.

Quoting Patrap:

Here comes the snow...wait...imagine if this pattern continues until the winter.

Quoting NRAamy:
Where would you put Texas in that risk area?

below Oklahoma and next to New Mexico....

Funny

Quoting PortABeachBum:


Perhaps Fire 635 can relate to this barrier Island that had Celia(3 Aug 1970) to contend with.

Sorry, WAHA, boring is better than wishcasting.

Drakoen, I respect your many insights as to what goes on in the tropics. Keep up the good work.

Sorry All, I'l go back to lurking and learning!

Beach Bum.

You misunderstand, I'm afraid. I sincerely doubt that many, if any, of us, actually want to see destruction. When we say that we want to storms to track, that is most certainly true; there are, after all, a fair bit of us here who are interested in pursuing a career in meteorology (and some who already have, or are already doing so).

But, the important thing to remember is that, though we enjoy tracking storms, we do NOT enjoy the death and destruction that accompany them (though admittedly, some of the destruction is our fault), and though I cannot speak of everyone, if it were up to me, these storms would not cause death and destruction.

It just irritates me a tad that people often misunderstand us weather enthusiasts. To you, a season with no storms is a good season. To us, it is a bad one.

EDIT: One more thing: for the majority of us, our interest in weather started at a young age with some kind of major (or perceived major) meteorological event. In my case, it started with the landfall of Tropical Storm Isidore (formerly known as Hurricane Isidore) in southeast Louisiana on September 26, 2002. That was the strongest tropical storm I've ever been through, and it produced the rains a hurricane would. I was on the left side of it too, which makes it all the more fascinating.

Because a tropical cyclone is what sparked my interest in weather, I am attracted to tropical meteorology (though I enjoy all facets of meteorology), and cannot help but be exilhilerated by events like Isidore.

Has there ever been a season with no storms? Seems like a REALLY slow season so far although I understand there have been slower...
thanks for all the great info on here. It's a much better resource than TWC or other mainstream outlets for certain.

HJ

Quoting hurricanejunky:
Has there ever been a season with no storms? Seems like a REALLY slow season so far although I understand there have been slower...
thanks for all the great info on here. It's a much better resource than TWC or other mainstream outlets for certain.

HJ

There has never been a season with no named storms in the Atlantic. That happens on a regular basis in the Central Pacific, though.

KoritheMan

Well said and so true. For most on here..

There are some who think that the GOM is in the clear this year. I just can't help but think that as hot as the waters are and how quiet it has been, that something is just going to really pop and then we will be like, where did that come from and how much time do we have to prepare? Anyone else think this way too???

Quoting TexasHurricane:


Where would you put Texas in that risk area?

Tex, the truth is no one knows where any storm will hit. They are discussing what they think may happen based on previous seasons and models of the future. I don't think it matters around here if we have a negative NAO or a positive. EL NINO, LA NINA, or neutral years don't matter either. We've gotten hits in all of them. And we haven't gotten hits in all of them. And I'd hazard a guess that's probably true for everywhere. So just keep an eye on things. And be prepared. I know we've been getting hit one after another but hopefully we won't this year and we can have a break. :)