97L fizzles; new Bahamas disturbance develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on July 21, 2009

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A strong tropical wave (97L), now located just south of Puerto Rico, has grown disorganized today. Sustained winds as high as 26 mph were observed on Barbados, and 35 mph winds were observed on St. Lucia yesterday when 97L passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands. Wind gusts to 45 mph and heavy rain can be expected in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico this afternoon, and in Haiti and the southeastern Bahama Islands on Wednesday. However, 97L is under too much wind shear to develop, and shear will remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range over the disturbance over the next two days.


Figure 1. Today's disturbances to watch.

A new tropical disturbance has formed north of the central Bahama Islands, about 600 miles east of Miami. The thunderstorm activity is not yet very intense, but does cover a moderately large area. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds of 20 - 25 mph, and no evidence of a circulation trying to form. This region is under about 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and has the potential for some slow development over the next few days as it moves slowly northwards. The GFS and ECMWF models hint at the possibility that this system may attempt to organize into a tropical depression by Friday, off the coast of North Carolina.

I'll have an update Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Eh?

Ok, guess I will spell it out. In other words, nothing develops out of 97 or the "Bahama blob". Therefore, the next thing to focus on would be something rolling off Africa.
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Quoting btwntx08:

sounded rude and didn't like it


why because it disagrees with your viewpoint?

get a grip lol, it is ok to have different opinions on this blog and really they are right at this point.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


actually I saw earlier someone said the ULL would help develop the system, not sure where I saw it and its too late to go look lol


It depends on how closely the Bahamas disturbance interacts with the upper low. If you recall last year, Hanna briefly resembled a subtropical cyclone as it interacted with an upper low.
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1603. centex
Quoting hunkerdown:
Or, team three...Move along people and focus on what is/was/will be rolling off Africa.
right, I should have included that. Sorry I have limited time tonight to read blog.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
Quoting hunkerdown:
Or, team three...Move along people and focus on what is/was/will be rolling off Africa.


Eh?

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Quoting KoritheMan:
Oh yeah, and I just wanted to say that, though I do believe the Bahamas disturbance has a shot at becoming Ana, water vapor imagery shows a developing upper-level low over Florida moving eastward. Should the Bahamas disturbance interact with this, it would not only get sheared, but would remain a cold-cored system, and tropical cyclogenesis would become unlikely.

I'd say it's 50/50 at this point.


actually I saw earlier someone said the ULL would help develop the system, not sure where I saw it and its too late to go look lol
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

97L may not develop but it is going to affect the Caribbean hard.


Most definitely. Stay safe in Jamaica.
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Quoting centex:
Need update from both teams. Team one 97L survivor perspective, team 2 only help create system in Bahamas.
Or, team three...Move along people and focus on what is/was/will be rolling off Africa.
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Oh yeah, and I just wanted to say that, though I do believe the Bahamas disturbance has a shot at becoming Ana, water vapor imagery shows a developing upper-level low over Florida moving eastward. Should the Bahamas disturbance interact with this, it would not only get sheared, but would remain a cold-cored system, and tropical cyclogenesis would become unlikely.

I'd say it's 50/50 at this point.
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1593. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Acemmett90:
hey don't i get any comments on my patrap like pics
ya they may be replaced with empty space
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Quoting stormsurge39:
acemmet90 you are an idiot please put me on your ignore list.
now that is classic !
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1591. centex
Need update from both teams. Team one 97L survivor perspective, team 2 only help create system in Bahamas.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
Quoting KoritheMan:


What's with all the people ignoring those who say development is unlikely?

To be honest, he is accurate in his assessment of the situation: 97L is getting ripped to shreds by the Dominican Republic, and is having its energy drawn into the Bahamas disturbance as vorticity increases around that disturbance and weakens around 97L. The energy associated with these two systems may eventually coalesce enough as to develop a tropical cyclone offshore the U.S. East Coast in 2-4 days from now. Development will be slow, however, but models have been persisting in indicating a possible tropical cyclone in this area.

But 97L by itself is not going to develop, and I honestly don't see why you're putting him on ignore for having a different opinion.

Just saying.

97L may not develop but it is going to affect the Caribbean hard.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting KoritheMan:


What's with all the people ignoring those who say development is unlikely?

To be honest, he is accurate in his assessment of the situation: 97L is getting ripped to shreds by the Dominican Republic, and is having its energy drawn into the Bahamas disturbance as vorticity increases around that disturbance and weakens around 97L. The energy associated with these two systems may eventually coalesce enough as to develop a tropical cyclone offshore the U.S. East Coast in 2-4 days from now. Development will be slow, however, but models have been persisting in indicating a possible tropical cyclone in this area.

But 97L by itself is not going to develop, and I honestly don't see why you're putting him on ignore for having a different opinion.

Just saying.


damn beat me to it lol

acemmet90 you are an idiot please put me on your ignore list.
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you two putting people on ignore just because they think 97L will die is just as bad as being a troll, maybe you should turn that spray on yourself.

geez let people disagree with you for goodness sakes

matter of fact I agree with them at this point, the flow is stripping all the energy from 97L and the mountains of Hispaniola will likely finish it off. We will see if all of this energy develops something in the Bahamas, but it has been a pretty good concensus all day that 97L isnt going to develop.

Anyway three ring circus is the right term now lol, Im going to get away from here for a bit

later
Quoting btwntx08:

the only see ya is u good bye ur my # 11th on the list


What's with all the people ignoring those who say development is unlikely?

To be honest, he is accurate in his assessment of the situation: 97L is getting ripped to shreds by the Dominican Republic, and is having its energy drawn into the Bahamas disturbance as vorticity increases around that disturbance and weakens around 97L. The energy associated with these two systems may eventually coalesce enough to develop a tropical cyclone offshore the U.S. East Coast in 2-4 days from now. Development will be slow, however, but models have been persistent in indicating a possible tropical cyclone in this area.

But 97L by itself is not going to develop, and I honestly don't see why you're putting him on ignore for having a different opinion.

Just saying.
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Quoting willdunc79:
This is a post from another blogging site but it sums it up perfectly for/to me so here it is:

The Mid Level Circulation on 97L is starting to fall apart, lots of rain in the areas along the Caribbean and Bahamas, but it's extremely disorganized now. The trof north of it is drawing away most of the energy so it's a good bet by this time tomorrow 97L will be merged into the flow and won't exist.Florida will probably stay dry because of the trof.

And now the Bahamas blob:

No developement at all. It will stay an are of disorganized wx and eventually be pushed off the coast & out to sea not forming anything but a cold core low(if that). This isn't 100% but JMHO as it is but I stand firmly behind my thoughts.
+1
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acemmett90 what bad joke are you referring to? Is this because i picked your sat picture out and used it as an example of how your hanging desperately to 97L?
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This is a post from another blogging site but it sums it up perfectly for/to me so here it is:

The Mid Level Circulation on 97L is starting to fall apart, lots of rain in the areas along the Caribbean and Bahamas, but it's extremely disorganized now. The trof north of it is drawing away most of the energy so it's a good bet by this time tomorrow 97L will be merged into the flow and won't exist.Florida will probably stay dry because of the trof.

And now the Bahamas blob:

No developement at all. It will stay an are of disorganized wx and eventually be pushed off the coast & out to sea not forming anything but a cold core low(if that). This isn't 100% but JMHO as it is but I stand firmly behind my thoughts.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Everyone please look at that last satt picture posted. Do you see how 97L IS BEING STRETCHED INTO A ELONGATED ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ITS DEAD


Development has been shown to occur when part of 97L helps spark a system in the Bahamas. It has come to an understanding that it isnt 97L itself that develops, so it really has no bearing on whether we eventually get a system or not
1573. NRAamy
mlc...are you laughing as much as I am?


;)
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Everyone please look at that last satt picture posted. Do you see how 97L IS BEING STRETCHED INTO A ELONGATED ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ITS DEAD
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Quoting LiveFromTheCarolinas:


Take that back or I leave the blog forever.

Funny.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting Acemmett90:
is it me or just look back on the sat loops from the last few nights i feel the 97L is a jumper becuase it seems to go where it wants to
lets see how it likes the mountains...and its going just where it is predicted to go.
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Well,this systems should be respect we were without power for about 8 hours in the towns south and west of Puerto Rico, lots of trees fell. Very strong winds a heavy rain. And we still under flash flood warning since it rain more than 6 inches in a period of 4 hours. Effects similar of a tropical depression or a minimal tropical storm.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
Quoting Acemmett90:
is it me or just look back on the sat loops from the last few nights i feel the 97L is a jumper becuase it seems to go where it wants to


Its quite the rambunctious little system, I give you that
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Ive noticed some people on here are very sensitive to other peoples opinions. This site is for entertainment and learning things from some very smart people on here. chill out dont worry be happy.


Take that back or I leave the blog forever.
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1563. CUBWF
Ups, thanks weatherw, already hav it. And Atmoaggie I put on my favorites already. That's why I like this blog. People are always there to help others.
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Ive noticed some people on here are very sensitive to other peoples opinions. This site is for entertainment and learning things from some very smart people on here. chill out dont worry be happy.
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Hey Check out some of these models runs:





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1558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
682

ACPN50 PHFO 220130

TWOCP



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

400 PM HST TUE JUL 21 2009



FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180



1. A SURFACE TROUGH MORE THAN 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF

KAUAI HAS BEEN MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...

THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE WEAKENED AND AREAL

COVERAGE HAS DECREASED. A QUIK-SCAT SATELLITE PASS DID NOT INDICATE

A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE WEAK. THEREFORE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT

IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTERNOON.



$$
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Current Steering Pattern for Shallow Systems:

(Source: CIMSS Tropical Cyclones)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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