High wind shear ripping into 97L
A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.
Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Drak i concur........97L is toast...i miracle might be an understatement....people are wanting shear maps....all you have to do is look at Satellite and what is causing the shear and where it is going....i don't need a shear map to show me what is going to happen...40-50kts is what 97L will be hitting in the next 6hrs........POOF
it was right on the money LMAO
14 minutes is only enough time for like 2 frames XD
You're jumping to conclusions too fast TS. You have been saying that for days now...
All the models are picking up at least a weak system running up the east coast. Only the NAM and CMC turn it into a powerful system though. Could be remnants of 97 interacting with a cut off low, don't really know yet, just got home from work.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number THREE
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2009
17:30 AM IST July 20 2009
===================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over northwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression BOB93-2009 located at 21.0N 88.0E or about 100 kms southeast of Digha, 120 kms east-southeast of Balasore, and 250 kms west-southwest of Khepupara.
The Dvorak Intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over northwest bay of bengal between 18.5N and 21.5N and Orissa and Chhattisgarh. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 988 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate (around 10-20 knots). Sea surface temperature is about 29C. The system is supported by upper level divergence and lower level convergence. Strong east-southeasterly winds prevail over the region in the upper tropospheric level. However, the sytem is moving closer to coast as observed at 1200 UTC, the 24 hour pressure fall is higher in the west-northwesterly direction.
Considering all the above, the system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Orissa-West Bengal coast between Balasore and Digha around 1800 UTC, today.
sure upgrade to deep depression, IMD I just don't get it.
That is nearly a 100 miles away from it, shear is actually decreasing close ahead of it.
The image I posted is 27 hours out. Not the remnants of anything. Looks to be whatever is off of the Carolinas.
ouch.. i thought some highs were supposed to bridge magically make all the shear disappear? what happened to that?
Yep, the blog is getting sheared now too it looks.
Come on futuremet. You gotta know when to give up...its surrounded by over 20+ knots of shear with the exception of that minuscule area of marginal shear. Ill give it 12 hours then if its looking worse then im done with it.
THE NEW ECMWF IS THE ONLY DETERMINISTIC MODEL FROM THE 12Z/20 CYCLE TO NOT SPIN UP A LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH DAYS 4 AND 5...AND CONSIDERING ITS GOOD CONTINUITY AND THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW OVER THE EAST THIS SUMMER...RELIED ON ITS SOLUTION THERE.
In your opinon im jumping to conclusions......In my opinion it has little to no chance. If a small amount of the energy could be around until Thursday then maybe something could form....its going to be all hostile until Thursday when things change...Your right i have been saying this for days. I think i have been right on also tho.
I guess you forgot about the anticyclone
Agree. And that's the difference between last night and tonight, imo.
Was entering the higher shear last night. Should be entering lower shear tonight.
If it goes N, then agree, most likely done.
If it can stay S, it'll be fine. At least for the next 12 hours or so.
"Convection is increasing, its not done yet"
"Shear is killing it, say good-bye to 97L"
"Deosnt look like 30 knots of shear over 97L"
"It looks ragged now"
"You have said it was dead every night and its still around"
"Its making a comeback"
"Is it going to hit Florida?"
I dont think the shear is killing 97L, I think you are all confusing it to death lmao
Who knows? Not me
SHIPS still forecasting shear over the next 96 hours or so *shrugs*
enough with the WRF model.
You were saying it was dead last night. I wouldn't be so quick to cast stones.
He's been saying the same stuff for days. And its still there. At this point, I don't trust his "analysis".
What anticyclone? Im pretty sure an anticyclone cant save it from a TUTT with 50knots of shear.
I never said it was dead, I acknowledged it was getting blasted with shear. You might want to go back and look, before you judge what I said
97 is dumping heavy rains there, and upperlevel winds are nne over a section of it, bringing weather toward Trinidad.
Pressure in Trinidad is 1009, falling.
Heavy, scattered showers all day. No wind.
The one above panama
Hi Lynn,
YOu got to watch posting what you just did...its not a healthy environment!. Watch saying Shear very loud....LOL
You are a piece of work
I stand corrected. Oh and I wasnt judging you lol...
Forever more known as PBOG. Or, in other words, SSDD. lol
Could the low be relocating? If it does that, it changes things around a bit.
LOL
You have to understand that east axis of the TUTT is lift out first. The overall mean shear is decreasing.
Current Wind shear...tendency
24hrs ago
There is a patch of decreasing wind shear values just ahead of it, and further coalescence is probable tonight. Convective pulses are actually occuring near the COC, and streaming patterns are not as pronounced as they were last night and earlier this morning. It is delusional observe the shearing outflow flanks of this system, which gives the impression that it is being sheared.
Directly in front of 97L is an area of very low shear. And the satellite presentation shows that it's taking advantage; a blob of intense convection has formed over the LLC and expanded westward in the past hour.
Viewing: 901 - 951
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