Two African waves worth mentioning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2009

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There are two African tropical waves worth mentioning today, though neither looks particularly threatening. A tropical wave near 12N 45W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is now surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert. The dry air has disrupted most of the wave's heavy thunderstorm activity, and will continue to make it difficult for this system to develop over the next 2 - 3 days. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and should remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range over the next 2 - 3 days. Thereafter, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a modest wind shift associated with 97L. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

A second tropical wave now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands is under 30 knots of wind shear, and has little prospect of development due to the high shear. However, the wave will bring heavy rain to the islands over the next two days.

None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days, and I don't expect either of the two African waves mentioned today to develop over at least the next three days.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L, 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

I'll have an update Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters

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grrrr i wish they get this fixs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
i could t help it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
as you all see now the blob is labeled "invest" might mean we might have 98L or 95L later tonight or tomorrow
Quoting Tazmanian:
you do no it was olny a joke right Acemmett9
I figured it had to be, the yellow circles were just too neat to be from the NHC.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
lol canes do you not believe us?

it was shown earlier that 97L was deactivated

the navy site and WU map takes forever to change things
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1093. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (T0609)
9:00 AM JST July 19 2009
============================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Overland Southern China

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Molave (990 hPa) located at 22.9N 112.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
160 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.9N 106.7E - Tropical Depression
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i see 50kt wind shear i dont see 60kt

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Rolling on the floor laughing
Thanks for the explanation. I was going nuts trying to figure it out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
where is it said that 97L is not an invest?
lmao Taz! so needed that =)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
shear is high on the east coast did you see this map with the shear from NC TO CONN ITS IN RED AND PINK.


You are aware that shear doesnt stay in place right? Um Right?

When the trof splits all that shear will decrease
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening everyone! Just getting back on after that wicked storm that came through Broward County. Second straight night we've had a nasty storm late in the evening.

Getting on with the tropics, I see that we no longer have Invest 97L. Will have to update my site then. Starting to think that we may not see anything substantial develop from all this mess that so many have hyped about.

In watching the latest satellite imagery, the remnants from former Invest 97L should dissipate overnight as the tremendous outflow from the dying thunderstorms in relation to the Lesser Antilles tropical wave should destroy the remnants. Even though it can never be ruled out, I think that we have seen the last from Invest 97L.

And talking about the Lesser Antilles tropical wave, I don't think much will happen with this as well since the upper level conditions will remain too hostile for anything to get going. You can clearly see this with the mid-level circulation racing off towards the west into the Central Caribbean while the convection has been left behind getting torn to shreds by hostile wind shear.

Unless something dramatically changes, I'm not expecting any tropical cyclone development from both the tropical waves. All that I'm expecting to happen is this whole mess moves off towards the west or northwest bringing locally heavy rainfall across the Caribbean through early week and then into the Bahamas and Florida come mid-week.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
the Shear is very high on the east coast up to 60 mph shear next to NC TO CONN...
You should apologize for doing something so foolish instead of pretending it didn't happen. Things are tense enough during hurricane season without you adding something there that isn't there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
you do no it was olny a joke right Acemmett9
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
now you see 5 code red circle and 3 code yellow LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
1080. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1026. jasoniscoolman09 1:14 AM GMT on July 19, 2009
i see three yellow circle now...
Action: Quote | Ignore User

to be replaced with empty space
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
1079. Ossqss
Quoting surfmom:
oSSGSS -- I'm still in the running eh??


There are only a few that contend for the tie breaker to date. You have an amorphous pick and I would say, maybe! Understand you and Aub are in the same boat, LoL --

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
just in









LOL Taz...keep dreaming. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I always see ROTLF. Can you please tell me what it means. I can normally figure the abbreviations out but for the life of me I can't figure that one out.

Rolling on the floor laughing
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
the Shear is very high on the east coast up to 60 mph shear next to NC TO CONN...
Do you know the story of the boy who cried wolf...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


no it was deactivated
not on the NRLMRY site.
Quoting surfmom:

ROTFL!!!
I always see ROTLF. Can you please tell me what it means. I can normally figure the abbreviations out but for the life of me I can't figure that one out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just in







Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
Quoting canesrule1:
hey everyone 97L is STILL an invest so why is everyone putting the word "ex" in front of it? anyways 97L is making a comeback, just look at the satellite imagery.
It is not an invest, has been dropped...the yellow circle does not make it an invest.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting Acemmett90:
if he was smart he would change the size and color of the circle lol what a dumb@$$
i know
Quoting canesrule1:
hey everyone 97L is STILL an invest so why is everyone putting the word "ex" in front of it? anyways 97L is making a comeback, just look at the satellite imagery.


no it was deactivated
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey everyone 97L is STILL an invest so why is everyone putting the word "ex" in front of it? anyways 97L is making a comeback, just look at the satellite imagery.
Quoting GatorWX:


It's early in the season, had a slim, but reasonable chance at development, but shear is much too high and got the best of them. Upper level conditions more favor development later in the season. Read StormW's latest synopsis. Great explanation.
The time of the season, as you call it, had nothing to do with it.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting sporteguy03:


One should never play around with an official NHC map like that for many many reasons, jason is not cool for that.


yup I am changing his name now

jasonisnotcoolman09 lol
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1062. surfmom
Quoting GatorWX:


It's early in the season, had a slim, but reasonable chance at development, but shear is much too high and got the best of them. Upper level conditions more favor development later in the season. Read StormW's latest synopsis. Great explanation.


Good, I'm enjoying the P & Q -- not ready for hurricane hysteria... just yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:
canes rule
i do photo editing and he did this by copying ex 97L's yellow circle
thanks i see that they are both the same.
1060. surfmom
oSSGSS -- I'm still in the running eh??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1059. GatorWX
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Seems like these two waves are going to have a hard time if any developing. So what made these "worth mentioning"?

Just curious...


It's early in the season, had a slim, but reasonable chance at development, but shear is much too high and got the best of them. Upper level conditions more favor development later in the season. Read StormW's latest synopsis. Great explanation.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3361
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


yea I guess, not a very smart thing to do on this blog though


One should never play around with an official NHC map like that for many many reasons, jason is not cool for that.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5342
1056. surfmom
Quoting Tazmanian:



lol if you where going too make some in fake up you sould have made all of them all code reds

ROTFL!!!
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1055. Ossqss
Uh, I would suggest the firefox users do a retrograde on the version level. This is new Info on 3.5.1 problems

3.5.2 soon to come. Back it down and avoid the problems :)
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1053. surfmom
Thanks Cane --
already the peterwolf's : )
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Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
i see three yellow circle now...
You should get banned immediately for posting incorrect maps.
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
i see three yellow circle now...



lol if you where going too make some in fake up you sould have made all of them all code reds
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
1050. surfmom
Quoting leftovers:
sometimes these systems either build themselves favorable areas or find little favorable spots where to wind themselves up.

I hear ya Left, ...guess what I'm looking for...LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.