Two African waves worth mentioning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2009

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There are two African tropical waves worth mentioning today, though neither looks particularly threatening. A tropical wave near 12N 45W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is now surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert. The dry air has disrupted most of the wave's heavy thunderstorm activity, and will continue to make it difficult for this system to develop over the next 2 - 3 days. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and should remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range over the next 2 - 3 days. Thereafter, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a modest wind shift associated with 97L. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

A second tropical wave now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands is under 30 knots of wind shear, and has little prospect of development due to the high shear. However, the wave will bring heavy rain to the islands over the next two days.

None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days, and I don't expect either of the two African waves mentioned today to develop over at least the next three days.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L, 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

I'll have an update Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters

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Quoting WeatherStudent:
I'd take it that your all doing well this evening? :) Are Drak and 456 back yet?
yeah and bored since all we have is a dead blob a low with a couple clouds a dieing blob and me eating crow. all is going well!
1149. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting WeatherStudent:
I'd take it that your all doing well this evening? :) Are Drak and 456 back yet?




yup they got an ban today
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Tazmanian:



you no what he may be right on that part
i agree i think that just might be true and well if im wrong gimme another crow remember med-well.
yup it all ways have bugs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good evening all!
Hi,how you doing tonight ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
right now on this blog its just me, acemmett90, and taz, and that thing keeps happening, imagine when another Andrew forms the entire site will crash.
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
THIS HURRICANE SEASON WILL HAVE NO NAMES STORM IN JULY.



you no what he may be right on that part
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
not yet
Quoting Acemmett90:
TAz
this blog will crash if a big storm forms
and we will see this everytime we goto jeff masters blog
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they need too get it fixs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
i just updated Firefox and it hasn't happened yet, lets wait and see.
1130. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
wow, you guys get that message more than I do.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46913
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ad yet it did it some more
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Acemmett90:
TAZ
i get this every friken time i post it sucks



same with me
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454

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this showed up for me
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1125. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 10 a.m., Tropical Storm Molave was estimated to be about
170 kilometres west-northwest of Hong Kong (near 23.0
degrees north 112.7 degrees east) and is forecast to move
west at about 25 kilometres per hour crossing western
Guangdong.

Winds in Hong Kong is subsiding gradually. The Standby
Signal No. 1 will shortly be issued to replace the Strong
Wind Signal No. 3.

Due to the ranbands of Molave, there were occasional heavy
rain and squalls over the territory. More than 150
millimetres of rainfall were recorded over parts of the New
Territories early this morning.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46913
yeah and i have taz on ignore and i can see him, whats going on.
Quoting Acemmett90:
OMG jesus crist allready with this
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noteed
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
im using safari right now (updating firefox) and i cant stand not posting pictures!
if i have canesrule1 on Ignore why am i seeing his post on the blog
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks for the explanation. I was going nuts trying to figure it out.

no problem
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Quoting Tazmanian:




i would be carfull on what you post on here some one got ban for posting fish photos
RONTFLMFAO i cant believe that why would someone post fish photos,
Quoting LPStormspotter:


can you just see this blog if that really were the case... lol




yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting LPStormspotter:


can you just see this blog if that really were the case... lol
lol
Quoting Acemmett90:

Med Well crow comming right up




i would be carfull on what you post on here some one got ban for posting fish photos
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see 50kt wind shear i dont see 60kt

Taz, look close, there are even small pockets of 70 & 80 knot areas near the Maryland, Jersey, Delaware and New York coasts.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting Tazmanian:
just in









can you just see this blog if that really were the case... lol
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 385
1109. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
FNMOC Page for current invest

Atlantic

East Pacific
05E.DOLORES

Central Pacific

West Pacific
96W.INVEST
95W.INVEST
07W.MOLAVE
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46913
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I always see ROTLF. Can you please tell me what it means. I can normally figure the abbreviations out but for the life of me I can't figure that one out.
Oops
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


doubt it, ssd floater is not official, we have had 3 or 4 systems labeled invest on that ssd floater and they were never officially declared
that is true.
Quoting Acemmett90:
canesrule
all we have now is a dead blob and no invest anymore
lol, true.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
lol canes do you not believe us?

it was shown earlier that 97L was deactivated

the navy site and WU map takes forever to change things
oh, sorry, thanks for the explanation, though, my bad, give me a crow medium well
Quoting canesrule1:
as you all see now the blob is labeled "invest" might mean we might have 98L or 95L later tonight or tomorrow


doubt it, ssd floater is not official, we have had 3 or 4 systems labeled invest on that ssd floater and they were never officially declared
me too taz been happening all day
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grrrr i wish they get this fixs
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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