Two African waves worth mentioning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2009

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There are two African tropical waves worth mentioning today, though neither looks particularly threatening. A tropical wave near 12N 45W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is now surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert. The dry air has disrupted most of the wave's heavy thunderstorm activity, and will continue to make it difficult for this system to develop over the next 2 - 3 days. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and should remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range over the next 2 - 3 days. Thereafter, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a modest wind shift associated with 97L. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

A second tropical wave now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands is under 30 knots of wind shear, and has little prospect of development due to the high shear. However, the wave will bring heavy rain to the islands over the next two days.

None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days, and I don't expect either of the two African waves mentioned today to develop over at least the next three days.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L, 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

I'll have an update Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters

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1200. Patrap
Seems we will be sleeping soundly to da pitter patter of Moderate rain.

Wunderful.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
I think its enough, guys. We know its happening, been doing a good part of the day. All you guys are doing are filling up the pages with nonsense.
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1196. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
wow someone is going to get (banhammered).
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47036
taz can you please stop posting it every time it happens. your more annoying then some of the others on here when you do that
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Quoting canesrule1:
now back to the tropics...


thanks. that was getting old
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 385
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
80% of the comments about the site malfunctioning is even more annoying

it is happening to me too, but please keep it to yourself, you dont need to post about it every single time it happens



why not may be if we post it more and more they will do some in about it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting canesrule1:
>Committing suicide now, LOL.


Yes.. you just did.. your right
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80% of the comments about the site malfunctioning is even more annoying

it is happening to me too, but please keep it to yourself, you dont need to post about it every single time it happens
now back to the tropics...
lol LPS
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this blog needs a docter


but the bill was so high that the blog cant pay for the docter bill
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
1182. WxLogic
Well... seems the Ex-97 is becoming once again an interesting feature... new 00Z Vorticity Charts just came in, and now are showing a more stacked system... with a more defined mid (500MB) VORT MAX.

If it did this during DMIN... DMAX tomorrow AM should be interesting. Finally, Sat representation still shows some minor improvements in its structure... we'll see how better or worst it looks by tomorrow AM... but based on the current development that it has been exhibiting... I'm going to have to lean towards a better looking system by tomorrow if current trends continue.
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Maybe.. Just maybe they should offer anger management on this blog..
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this blog needs a docter
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
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ugh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting Acemmett90:

its so annoying right taz



yes it is
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
i cant stand that!
1170. Patrap




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Quoting Acemmett90:
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OMG JFC




i give up
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grr will we can come to my blog and see if it shows up there
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting Tazmanian:




oops i mean too say un ban


lol
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1163. pottery
Good evening.
The ITCZ has gone away? Where is the rain? It threatened all day here, and there was lightening over Venezuela, but no rain for me.
Looking at the Atlantic, the SAL is clearing out, and the waves are supposed to be rolling off Africa all now. Plenty dry air out there, but still, I thought by now we would see more activity.
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1162. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0130z 19JUL)
===========================================
An area of convection (95W) located at 12.8N 130.5E or 410 nm northwest of Palau. There is a large area of flaring convection associated with an area of broad disorganized cyclonic turning as seen in a 2048Z Quikscat pass. Upper level analysis shows the area is in a region of low to moderate vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-16 knots with a mimimum sea level pressure of 1010 MB. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47036
Quoting Patrap:




I have been keeping an eye on that sense you said to watch.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 385
1159. Patrap
We would just have to tighten the bolts Taz
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting LPStormspotter:


Y




oops i mean too say un ban
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Warning - The Season™ is here...Watch for falling blogholes.
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1155. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
what if we evere got a cat 5 and this blog go nuts
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting Tazmanian:




yup they got an ban today


Y
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1151. alaina1085
2:01 AM GMT on July 19, 2009
Hey WS.

Yup they are back.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1150. canesrule1
2:01 AM GMT on July 19, 2009
Quoting WeatherStudent:
I'd take it that your all doing well this evening? :) Are Drak and 456 back yet?
yeah and bored since all we have is a dead blob a low with a couple clouds a dieing blob and me eating crow. all is going well!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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