Two African waves worth mentioning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2009

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There are two African tropical waves worth mentioning today, though neither looks particularly threatening. A tropical wave near 12N 45W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is now surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert. The dry air has disrupted most of the wave's heavy thunderstorm activity, and will continue to make it difficult for this system to develop over the next 2 - 3 days. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and should remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range over the next 2 - 3 days. Thereafter, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a modest wind shift associated with 97L. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

A second tropical wave now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands is under 30 knots of wind shear, and has little prospect of development due to the high shear. However, the wave will bring heavy rain to the islands over the next two days.

None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days, and I don't expect either of the two African waves mentioned today to develop over at least the next three days.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L, 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

I'll have an update Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters

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TyphoonHunter has posted his video of last night's hit on HK by Typhoon Molave.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjHKbvubZJI

A little tired this morning. It's rainy and a bit breezy and T3 as Molave's remnants keep hanging around.
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1249. Patrap


Central Atlantic - Infrared Channel 2 Loop
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Dean was a monster here
im not talking about the intensity part i'm just talking about the route, very true though, Dean was a MONSTER!
1247. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
i figure there will be lots of empty space soon
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53611
Quoting canesrule1:
dont worry its not coming to the US I think ex 97L is following dean's track, take a look...

That's what I think will happen. I mentioned this sort of track earlier
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting Greyelf:

No it isn't. I'd rather have only a few weather-related posts to read versus having to try to sort them out through the spam being spewed by you, Taz, and Canesrule1.
Sorry to have annoyed you with that, once again sorry.
1243. Patrap
I wouldnt book Elvis to Play with Deactivated 97L for a comeback tour tonight..LOL

GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV)
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It took dow the whole of my tree which has been standing for 20 year and slammed it into my window and broke off a piece
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting canesrule1:
dont worry its not coming to the US I think ex 97L is following dean's track, take a look...

Dean was a monster here
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1239. Patrap
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys I just came back from a party what new how is the refireing of ex-97l doing and anything with pre-98l

ex-97L looks to be in the early stages of refiring
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1237. GatorWX
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys I just came back from a party what new how is the refireing of ex-97l doing and anything with pre-98l


What's pre-98l? Not sure anything at this point even warrants that title!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2874
1236. Greyelf
Quoting Acemmett90:

it better than no posts

No it isn't. I'd rather have only a few weather-related posts to read versus having to try to sort them out through the spam being spewed by you, Taz, and Canesrule1.
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Quoting Drakoen:


I have him on ignore. It certainly defeats the purpose of having him on ignore if you quote him. You could refer to the post number instead please.

Will do.
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Quoting PORTCHARLOTTE72:
97l is really getting its act together im getting my flashlight and going outside to put up my hurricane shutters im not taking any chances
dont worry its not coming to the US I think ex 97L is following dean's track, take a look...
97l might have some fight left in it after all.




Pat...Certainly an area to keep an eye on. Hadn't seen those 18z plots.
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1232. Patrap

Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
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hi guys I just came back from a party what new how is the refireing of ex-97l doing and anything with pre-98l
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Quoting Patrap:
A front hanging into the GOM in mid-late July always needs to be watched








With the bathwater temps, definatly.
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From the looks of those waves this evening, it looks like Bastardi might be accurate so far.
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1228. Drakoen
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
1221. Acemmett90 10:26 PM EDT on July 18, 2009
zOH this gets better now the whole blog is slow Jesus Crist


Some ppl might not care, but stop swearing on this blog, second time you've done it.

1197. Acemmett90 10:13 PM EDT on July 18, 2009
WE need to email the goddamn admin NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JeffMasters's WunderBlog


I have him on ignore. It certainly defeats the purpose of having him on ignore if you quote him. You could refer to the post number instead please.
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1227. Drakoen
Quoting PORTCHARLOTTE72:
97l is really getting its act together im getting my flashlight and going outside to put up my hurricane shutters im not taking any chances


lol?
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97l is really getting its act together im getting my flashlight and going outside to put up my hurricane shutters im not taking any chances
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1221. Acemmett90 10:26 PM EDT on July 18, 2009
zOH this gets better now the whole blog is slow Jesus Crist


Some ppl might not care, but stop swearing on this blog, second time you've done it.
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1222. Patrap
A front hanging into the GOM in mid-late July always needs to be watched







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1220. Patrap
Not much meat on these bones anywhere tonight.


GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV)
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Quoting Patrap:

Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)


What do you think about the GOM?
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1218. txlori
We've gotten 2+ inches of rain in Galveston Tx! YAYAYAYAY! I love the sound of thunder!
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What is all the fuss about all you can read on here is about the fussing and not the tropics I know much isn't going on in the tropics but I would like to read about what might be going on. I promise i am not trying to piss anyone off. Does anyone think anything might become of the old 97L or the other wave out there? I am just wondering. I thought I would check in and see what's up.

Sheri
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definitely great 850mb vorticity with both of our AOI's.

1214. Drakoen
Quoting WxLogic:
Well... seems the Ex-97 is becoming once again an interesting feature... new 00Z Vorticity Charts just came in, and now are showing a more stacked system... with a more defined mid (500MB) VORT MAX.

If it did this during DMIN... DMAX tomorrow AM should be interesting. Finally, Sat representation still shows some minor improvements in its structure... we'll see how better or worst it looks by tomorrow AM... but based on the current development that it has been exhibiting... I'm going to have to lean towards a better looking system by tomorrow if current trends continue.


Yea i'm monitoring it as well. It may still have a little bit left in it. A lot of systems looks like this before they enter the Caribbean and then they have the chance to get their act together. A recent example would be Felix although the invest-Felix had a better defined low level circulation.
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1213. Becca36
Quoting Becca36:

Oops. it means rolling on floor laughing :)
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Quoting Acemmett90:
what about this a possible third yellow circle
It just rolled off, and its mighty low for now. It needs some time to show its stuff, or not.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
1210. Drakoen
Quoting Orcasystems:


I'll never know now :)


LOL!
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1209. Becca36
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I always see ROTLF. Can you please tell me what it means. I can normally figure the abbreviations out but for the life of me I can't figure that one out.
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Quoting Drakoen:


He's on the road to 45


I'll never know now :)
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looking better, thoughts?
1205. Patrap

Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)
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Quoting Tazmanian:



why not may be if we post it more and more they will do some in about it


they will if the posts continue you will get banned for spamming the blog.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5287
1203. Drakoen
Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes.. you just did.. your right


He's on the road to 45
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what is everyone's opinion on ex-97L i think its re firing and looking better than when it was an invest, thoughts?
the more we do it the more they get up and fix it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
1200. Patrap
Seems we will be sleeping soundly to da pitter patter of Moderate rain.

Wunderful.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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