Two African waves worth mentioning
There are two African tropical waves worth mentioning today, though neither looks particularly threatening. A tropical wave near 12N 45W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is now surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert. The dry air has disrupted most of the wave's heavy thunderstorm activity, and will continue to make it difficult for this system to develop over the next 2 - 3 days. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and should remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range over the next 2 - 3 days. Thereafter, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and only a modest wind shift associated with 97L. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.
A second tropical wave now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands is under 30 knots of wind shear, and has little prospect of development due to the high shear. However, the wave will bring heavy rain to the islands over the next two days.
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days, and I don't expect either of the two African waves mentioned today to develop over at least the next three days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L, 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
I'll have an update Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
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Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)
and you are surprised?
These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.
Thanks was gonna ask the same question..
am usually just a lurker but what is DMAX?
When the difference between the ocean temperature and the atmosphere is at it's greatest occurring before sunrise.
If it continues to organize tonight, possibly re-tagged by Sunday afternoon. A low but fair chance of that happening.
At diurnal maximum then system has to hold it's convection for approximately 12 hours. During this 12 hours the system has to prove itself capable of generating and/or regenerating convection.
All is quiet brother,the wave bringing squally weather to the northern islands is all interaction with the upper trof in the area.Just before heading out to fridays with wifey i was looking at some visible imagery of the caribbean and i was picking up the mid-level circulation racing ahead of the wave.Looks like that squally weather might make its way into southern florida come mid week.
AOI
AOI
AOI
Hey Adrian,
Yea, nothing imminent out there.
My bad, just fixed it.
Thanks for GeoffreyWPB for posting that radar.
Makes sense, no hype.
Just curious...
Evening StormW, great analysis! Both of these features need to be watched. Convection is starting to fire up on the remnants of 97L, a banding look.
Dude you need to calm down no offense, but your over-hyping this storm on this blog I noticed.
I said on an earlier post that there is a LOW but fair chance for regeneration. I am seeing very small thin banding features on the wave, doesn't mean I'm calling it a storm just yet ;)
I also mentioned I am giving it 14 hours to regenerate, if it falls apart by Sunday morning, I won't be tracking it anymore. Conditions are better and a bit more moist. However, there is still some dry air left to contend with. So it's a wait and see deal, not over hyping.
G'night.
you should be banned for putting up a fake TWO map, there is no yellow circle by the CV Islands
I know but someone complained that I was over hyping the remnants of 97L, so I had to get that straightened out.
yea I guess, not a very smart thing to do on this blog though
It's all good, we are all here to learn and help. :)
Nice to meet you to.
nice try tho
Exactly my point
It's a fake.
No problem, anytime. I will try my best to help you out, i'm not an expert, but I have been tracking storms for 10 years.
He should of made it code red :P
I hear ya Left, ...guess what I'm looking for...LOL
lol if you where going too make some in fake up you sould have made all of them all code reds
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