Remainder of July hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on July 15, 2009

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Not much has changed in the Atlantic since my early July Atlantic hurricane outlook posted two weeks ago. Tropical cyclone activity typically picks up a bit during the last half of July, but we are still a month away from when hurricane season really gets going. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, nine of 14 years (63%) have had a named storm form during the last half of July. We had two last-half-of-July named storms last year--Christobal and Dolly. As seen in Figure 1, most of the late July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Carolina waters. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes begin to occur. These are spawned by tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. Tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 16 - 31.The Gulf of Mexico coast is the preferred strike location. There are still very few major Cape Verdes-type hurricanes forming in the last half of July.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies have warmed slightly over the past two weeks, and are about 0.3°C (0.5°F) above average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America (Figure 2). These are some of the coolest SST anomalies for this time of year that we've seen since 1994. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near or slightly below average over the past two weeks, driving slightly below average trade winds. Weaker trade winds don't mix up as much cold water from the depths, and cause less evaporative cooling. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued near-average or slightly below average-strength trade winds through the end of July, so SSTs should remain slightly above average during this period.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 13, 2009. SSTs were about 0.3°C (0.5°F) average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño
El Niño conditions continue to amplify over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", are now 0.4°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Figure 3). An increase of another 0.1°C will push the current El Niño into the "moderate" category. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory earlier this month. The latest set of mid-June runs of the El Niño computer models are almost universally calling for El Niño conditions to become well-established for the peak months of hurricane season, August - October. It is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed in 2009 due to the strong upper-level winds and resulting wind shear an El Niño event usually brings to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 8, 2009, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.9°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in July over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past three months has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern for the next week. However, during the final week of July, the subtropical jet is forecast to weaken. This will leave regions of low wind shear over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the final week of July (Figure 4), increasing the chances of hurricane development.


Figure 4. Wind shear in m/s between 200 mb and 850 mb on July 31, 2009, as forecast by the 00Z July 15, 2009 run of the GFS model. The subtropical jet is forecast to weaken by this time, leaving regions of low wind shear over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the final week of July. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
June and July are the peak months for dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past month. Expect dust from Africa to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in July. Several well-developed African waves have been done in by dry air from Africa over the past few weeks.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has not changed much. A persistent trough of low pressure has remained entrenched over the Eastern U.S. all summer, bringing cool and relatively moist weather to the eastern half of the country. This trough is strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the strong trough over the Eastern U.S., which decreases the hurricane risk to the U.S. Gulf Coast. There is no telling what might happen to the steering current pattern during the peak months of August, September, and October, but it is often difficult to break a months-long steering current pattern like the current one.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 63% chance of a named storm occurring in the last half of July. Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, and SST and wind shear patterns look pretty average, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming this month. Such a storm would most likely form near the end of the month, when wind shear is expected to decline due to a weakening of the subtropical jet stream. The last time we went this long in the season without a named storm forming was in 2004, when the first storm (Alex) formed on August 1.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

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1705. IKE
Extended discussion from Mobile,AL. talks about another trough the end of next week...

"[SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...BY SATURDAY MORNING THE BASE OF
LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DRIES OUT UNDER MID
LAYER SUBSIDENCE REGION...THE SOUTHERN HALF (INCLUDING MARINE AREAS)
WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
FRONTAL ZONE ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
DEEPER INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME RATHER
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
COAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 6 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES FAR INLAND ZONES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF ONE UPPER TROUGH AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA WITHOUT RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY (AHEAD OF THE OTHER
TROUGH)
ALLOWING A WETTER PATTERN (SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS) TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS MODERATING FROM
THE 60S AREA WIDE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER MID WEEK."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1704. IKE
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
IKE

1015mb ... that's not too bad though. Isn't it under 1010 where you would have to worry? Please correct me if I am wrong ..

thanks :)


True...

It probably won't amount to anything tropically...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
IKE

1015mb ... that's not too bad though. Isn't it under 1010 where you would have to worry? Please correct me if I am wrong ..

thanks :)
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1702. K8eCane
Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS shows a low over the Florida panhandle come Monday at 84 hrs.....



i think that low is also supposed to bring us more rain here on the east coast also
also as stormw mentioned, i was thinking this am that the EATL low may move north of the islands
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Quoting IKE:


Trough/cold front coming down...GFS may drop it on the next run...


It's possible I guess. The weather has been strange for sure around this part of Florida. I don't feel like we've had our typical afternoon t-storms in a while. I guess it's that El Nino...
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1700. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


Where on earth would that come from?


Trough/cold front coming down...GFS may drop it on the next run...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS shows a low over the Florida panhandle come Monday at 84 hrs.....



Where on earth would that come from?
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Good morning!

Looks like we may have an invest today or tommorow.

Pre-95L looks pretty healthy-ish today. I just needs to get more convection.
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1697. IKE
6Z GFS shows a low over the Florida panhandle come Monday at 84 hrs.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good morning all :)
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1694. IKE
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND
16/2045 UTC INDICATED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE COVERAGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PRESENCE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR IS LIMITING DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 48W-54W
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1693. IKE
Quoting Funkadelic:


You think the second wave pre 95l will become an invest today?


It could. I thought there was a chance overnight, but it didn't.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1692. DDR
Morning,(from Trinidad)
It's been a while but the itcz is overhead,the river is swollen and scattered showers all around.
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No real change then from the NHC.
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1690. Mikla
I don't think you are alone in this feeling. My bet is that there are hundreds of folks lurking that feel the same way. The board is a bit cliquish and breaking into any clique is always a bit daunting. But think of it this way... the worst that can happen is that you get "ignored" or someone throws a dart at your comment/question. So what?... just let it roll, you don't know these folks personally and you still have the ability to read and learn. Sometimes I think the folks that call someone a "troll" are looking for as much attention as the accused "troll"...
Quoting Autistic2:
good morning all,

It seams like I learned more form here last year. People provided me with wonderfull links like this. http://www.stormjunkie.com/training/vidlearnfree.html Now all I do is read because I am not a met and think that If I post somethinkg I think or ask a question some consider silly I will be called a Troll or something.
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1687. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting fishinfool33825:
All this talk of trolls and ignores cracks me up. Some people get very possessive of this blog, and seem to forget it belongs to Dr. Masters for the purpose of sharing knowledge and keeping the public informed on all tropical weather events. I appreciate the input from everyone on here when they stick to the subject matter, and am appauled at those who use it as their own soap box to take swipes at those who are here, like myself, hoping to stay informed and learn from those with more knowledge than myself. The only "fun" thing about a tropical storm is trying to second guess mother nature and predict which direction the storm will travel. There are a whole bunch of weatherman wanna be's in the world, who like me, are learning how to decipher the models and graphs and nature of weather. For those who are more educated in the field, we may irritate you with our questions or comments, but here is your golden opportunity to educate us instead of calling us trolls and putting us on ignore. I am sure Dr. Masters would agree with me, as would Storm W and any other accredited contributor to this blog. Instead of throwing rocks at us... throw information that will help us "get it"... and your contribution to this blog will be priceless. Thank you.
Well said>>>>
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1685. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
I need the rain but I hope my wish does not blow up in my face, literally.



Looks like you get rain with both waves....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I need the rain but I hope my wish does not blow up in my face, literally. That structure is a nice structure the wave has there but convection remains a bit sparse.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1683. IKE
The first wave between 50-55 west seems to have flared up in the last 24 hours...shear is bad just to it's NW.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1682. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
good Morning Ike look forward to your update!


LOL....my update....lol.....

Pre95L seems to be status quo as it moves generally west.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
good morning all,

It seams like I learned more form here last year. People provided me with wonderfull links like this. http://www.stormjunkie.com/training/vidlearnfree.html Now all I do is read because I am not a met and think that If I post somethinkg I think or ask a question some consider silly I will be called a Troll or something.
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Quoting btwntx08:
and now i will ingore u haha
So immature, some of these posters are!
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1679. crownwx
Quoting sporteguy03:


Rob check out your link it does not work, bit thank you for the update and clarifications.


Thanks for letting me know!! Try this: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
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1678. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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Quoting crownwx:
Latest discussion from me here at Crown Weather Services: Link


Rob check out your link it does not work, bit thank you for the update and clarifications.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5430
good Morning Ike look forward to your update!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5430
1675. crownwx
Latest discussion from me here at Crown Weather Services: Link
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Quoting leftovers:
my 18 yr old baby is in london today lots of rain forecasted? atl. tropics is beginning to look alittle more interesting


Yeah but the South East shouldn't be too bad.

Most of the rain will be in the North East of England and Scotland.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning everyone whats new with pre-95l


Update here

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
good morning everyone whats new with pre-95l
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning
there has not been much improvement in the strucure of the tropical disturbance in the eastern atlantic near 32W. althugh it is difficult to ascertain if a surface low exits, most of the cyclonic turning is in the mid level. the system continues to move slowly north of west, and is trying to detatch itself from the ITCZ. it is enclosed in an envelope of moisture which is enabling it to fight the dry air to it"s west. The system is under low wind shear and is travelling under marginal sst. this will only encourage very slow develoment the next few days. most of the global models are not forecasting any development from this system. as a matter of fact the GFS keeps it as an open wave. whatever happens development or not this system will bring squally weather to the islands early next week. should this system develop it may encounter very hostile conditions in the caribbean depending on how quickly it gets there. shear is forecast to weaken the next 72 -,96 hrs. even if this wave does not develop ,there is another strong wave to exit the african coaSt the next 48 hrs. Both systems will be monitored for signs of development
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Good Morning;

El Nino and the Earth's Rotation; Watching the Eastern Atlantic
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
All this talk of trolls and ignores cracks me up. Some people get very possessive of this blog, and seem to forget it belongs to Dr. Masters for the purpose of sharing knowledge and keeping the public informed on all tropical weather events. I appreciate the input from everyone on here when they stick to the subject matter, and am appauled at those who use it as their own soap box to take swipes at those who are here, like myself, hoping to stay informed and learn from those with more knowledge than myself. The only "fun" thing about a tropical storm is trying to second guess mother nature and predict which direction the storm will travel. There are a whole bunch of weatherman wanna be's in the world, who like me, are learning how to decipher the models and graphs and nature of weather. For those who are more educated in the field, we may irritate you with our questions or comments, but here is your golden opportunity to educate us instead of calling us trolls and putting us on ignore. I am sure Dr. Masters would agree with me, as would Storm W and any other accredited contributor to this blog. Instead of throwing rocks at us... throw information that will help us "get it"... and your contribution to this blog will be priceless. Thank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1667. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (T0609)
18:00 PM JST July 17 2009
============================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon In Bashi Channel

At 9:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Molave (980 hPa) located at 20.2N 122.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
260 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.6N 117.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 23.6N 112.9E - Tropical Depression
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1666. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Storm "ISANG" has intensified further while traversing the Balintang Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
===================================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Isang (MOLAVE) located at 19.6°N 122.2°E or 140 km north northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 km/h (50 knots) with gustiness of 120 km/h (65 knots).

Warning Signals
=================

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Batanes
2.Ilocos Norte
3.Apayao
4.Northern Cagayan
5.Babuyan
6.Calayan Group

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Rest of Cagayan
2.Kalinga
3.Abra
4.Mt. Province
5.Ilocos Sur

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signals are now lowered.

Residents living in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under storm warning signals #1 & #2 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the storm.

Tropical Storm "ISANG" enhances the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional to frequent rains over Central and Southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

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Good morning.

Heavy rain pretty much the name of the game here for a lot of areas. Up to 3 or 4 inches possible in certain places apparently.

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Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


We have been very dry for the past Month and a Half because the Deep Layered Ridge was parked right over LA. Any rain that we have gotten over the past week has been from a stalled front. Not from a Tropical Wave. Also, do you see the thing at the top that says "long term"? I don't put too much faith in forecasts that are beyond 72 Hours or that are considered "Long Term". Also, if that's right that would mean relief for Western LA. But what about Southern Texas where the deep layered ridge is now parked? Where's there rain? They can't get it because the ridge is blocking the chance of rain for them which is Tropical Waves, fronts, UL disturbances. No Moisture=No rain.


UMMM? OK. I don't know what to do with your lack of faith in "Long Range" models that go all the way out to next week. But I think I can help you with your questions about south Texas. And I appologize ahead of time because its from their "long range" models. But they're talking about something that doesn't happen til next week. Guess thats why they put in their "long range" forecast. Ah well. Here it is any way.

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI...

TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY SEEN WITH
HIGH SHIFTING MORE NORTHWEST...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THEN MAYBE MORE TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES. GENERALLY WENT ABOVE NORMAL/ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS
TIME BUT CLOSER TO GFSX-MOS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN SCENARIO.

NWS BROWNSVILLE...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR QUITE SOME TIME WILL SLIDE WNWD
AND CENTER ITSELF OVR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

There. Hoped it helped.:) I didn't mean to start a fight. Like you said you got your opinion I got mine.

BTW. I live in Texas. ;)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
00Z NAM/WRF MSLP

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1661. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (T0609)
15:00 PM JST July 17 2009
============================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon In Bashi Channel

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Molave (985 hPa) located at 19.5N 122.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.5N 118.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 23.6N 112.9E - Tropical Depression
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Quoting btwntx08:
ooops here it is


Don't you think its kind of redundant to post Satellite Images over and over again of the same thing since they automatically update?
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hmmmm? NWS Lake Charles

LONG TERM...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROVIDES SOME FOCUS TO FIRE UP DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT RETURNS SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WEAK BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT MOIST FLOW OFF THE
GULF WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TYPICAL SEABREEZE TYPE DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEXT WEEK


We have been very dry for the past Month and a Half because the Deep Layered Ridge was parked right over LA. Any rain that we have gotten over the past week has been from a stalled front. Not from a Tropical Wave. Also, do you see the thing at the top that says "long term"? I don't put too much faith in forecasts that are beyond 72 Hours or that are considered "Long Term". Also, if that's right that would mean relief for Western LA. But what about Southern Texas where the deep layered ridge is now parked? Where's there rain? They can't get it because the ridge is blocking the chance of rain for them which is Tropical Waves, fronts, UL disturbances. No Moisture=No rain.
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Looking better than I expected...

Dry air to the front is being pinched off, and a lot of cyclonic flow in the moisture. Still embedded in the ITCZ, needs to peel itself off and gain some latitude.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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