July hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:26 PM GMT on July 02, 2009

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Atlantic tropical cyclone activity typically picks up a bit during the first half of July. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, seven of 14 years (50%) have had a named storm form during the first half of July. The busiest first half of July occurred in 2005, when three hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. As seen in Figure 1, most of the early July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Carolina waters. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes begin to occur. These are spawned by tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. Tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes. Last year's Hurricane Bertha was one such rare early July Cape Verdes hurricane. Bertha's 120 mph winds made it the sixth strongest early-season Atlantic hurricane on record. Bertha also set the record for farthest east formation as a tropical storm, hurricane, and major hurricane, so early in the season.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 1-15. North Carolina and the Gulf of Mexico coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Oddly, the Florida Peninsula has been struck by only two storms that formed in the first half of July.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) anomalies have warmed slightly over the past two weeks, but are close to average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America (Figure 2). These are the are the coolest SST anomalies we've seen since 1994. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. Stronger-than-average trade winds were observed through most of the period November 2008 - May 2009, which helped cool the tropical Atlantic substantially. Strong winds mix up colder water from the depths and cause greater evaporative cooling. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through mid-July, so SSTs should remain near average during this period.

Typically, July tropical storms form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida. SSTs are about 1.0°C above average for this time of year in the Gulf of Mexico, but near average elsewhere. July storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. There will be one or two fronts moving off the U.S. coast over the next two weeks, and we will need to watch these for development. Wind shear is too high and SSTs are usually too cold in July to allow African tropical waves to develop into tropical storms. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes,

Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 2, 2009. SSTs were near average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño
El Niño conditions continue to amplify over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures there rose 0.5°C over the past two weeks, and are now 0.45°C above the threshold for El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Figure 3). NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch in early June, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños, and latest set of mid-June runs of the El Niño computer models are almost universally calling for El Niño conditions to become well-established for the peak months of hurricane season, August - October. It is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed in 2009 due to the strong upper-level winds and resulting wind shear an El Niño event usually brings to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of June 28, 2009, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.95°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in July over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past two months has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Tropical Depression One formed at the end of May.

The jet stream is forecast (Figure 4) to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. This means that the waters offshore of the Carolinas are the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period.


Figure 4. Wind shear in m/s between 200 mb and 850 mb, as forecast by the 06Z July 02, 2009 run of the GFS model. The position and strength of the subtropical jet stream is forecast to change little over the next two weeks, and this jet will bring high wind shear to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into mid-July. There will at times be a region of low shear between the polar jet (northern set of arrows on the plots) and the subtropical jet, allowing for possible tropical development off the coast of North Carolina. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
June and July are the peak months for dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past month. Expect dust from Africa to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in July.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has not changed much, and is typical for June and July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the typical July pattern, bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast capable of recurving any July storms that might form. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 50% chance of a named storm occurring in the first half of July. Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, and SST and wind shear patterns look pretty average, I'll go with a 20% chance of a named storm forming during the first half of July.

Vote for Mike Theiss as an Antarctica blogger
Extreme weather photographer Mike Theiss, who wrote our Ultimate Chase photography blog for two years until a new job took him to South America, wants your help. He's entering a Quark Expeditions competition to receive an expense-paid 2-week trip to Antarctica, where he will do some intensive photography and blogging. In order to go, he needs the votes to show that he's a popular blogger. So, if you liked his posts while he was blogging for wunderground, and want to see him blog for wunderground during this potential Antarctica voyage, go to http://www.blogyourwaytoantarctica.com/blogs/view /220 and cast a vote. It takes about 3 minutes navigate through the registration and voting process. Mike will be back chasing hurricanes this August, and has promised to post his excellent storm photos on wunderground should we help him secure the Antarctica gig.

Have a great holiday weekend, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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1297. Dar9895
Most models develop an area in the coast of the U.S in the 3 - 4 days from now.
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1296. Patrap

Smoke from the explosion of a truck carrying fireworks rises over Ocracoke Island, North Carolina, Saturday.

1 killed in fireworks truck blast in North Carolina

(CNN) -- One person was killed and four others were critically injured Saturday when a truck carrying fireworks on North Carolina's Outer Banks exploded, officials said.

Jamie Tunnell, Hyde County spokeswoman, said the fireworks were to be used for the annual Fourth of July show on Ocracoke Island, and the five people were members of a crew involved in setting up the display.

The truck exploded at the Ocracoke Island docks.
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1295. Dar9895
Quoting StormW:
95L

ABNT20 KNHC 041152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN STORMW'S BATHTUB. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THE BATHTUB IS DRAINING...CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.





???
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Some deep cells across N central Arkansas and Eastern OK. Pop ups building along the Gulf in LA, MS, AL.

Boomer approaching my house now.

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Whilst I admire this site, and most of the bloggers, immensely - I do wish that some bloggers would cease from apparently "wishing for a Hurricane!!

Living throughy and recovering from (and many of u know this)is a frightening, humbling, exhausting and expensive process - it is not a "wanabee adventure" by any means.

So for me personally - and I am sure I echo the thoughts of many people in the Caribbean - I do not care a whit if it is a boring, quiet season - I would prefer it that way.

I would hate to live my live based on the remoted, vicarious thrills of "that looks dramatic, that looks exciting - wish I was there" - it is dramatic, it is exciting,but trust me once tasted always hoping it never happens again.

Meanwhile - a big TY for the clinical, unemotive bloggers. :-)
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
wave around 73w is still holding together somewhat... probably one of the more vigorous waves to make it into the carrib so far this year..

Once it gets into the western carrib any chance for development?


Possibly, but the environment does still need to become more favorable for it to have any chance. And it only has a slight chance to even develop at all. Anyways, it will still be monitored.
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Named, not named. No marine vessel running out beyond the inland bays has much of an excuse when this product costs next to nothing when compared to the cost of not having it.

Plenty of weather data to be had. And the XM one provides a decent wave height and wind speed forecast, as well as all of the current surface conditions.

Sorry, Levi, I don't think a marginal system, or two, that didn't get it's name(s) is important enough to haggle over.
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1290. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
heres the info on all basins worldwide for 2009












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1288. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Here is a question for all: When was the last time that the Pacific Basin only had one named storm up to this point and the Atlantic basin had nothing named?
1977
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Nothing should form in the Atlantic over the next 3-5 days. There is too much baroclinic energy associated with 94L to be considered subtropical. It is also heading into cooler waters, and shear is expected to remain unfavorable.
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Quoting Levi32:


Yes Pat I'm not that arrogant lol. Of course they don't live to satisfy me, but I'm not the only one that gets frustrated with them for being so inconsistent on their naming protocols especially with systems less than 24 hours from our coastline that affect people greatly. I've heard stories of ships being capsized because they had no clue something was there because the NHC didn't even give it a second look. Their rules and criteria are inconsistent.
I am sorry but that has got to be the dumbest statement you have posted. If a "captain" takes its vessel out of port (or off the trailer), whether it be commercial or recreational, he/she should be aware of the weather conditions and the potential weather conditions. Whether the NHC names a storm or not does and, and should not, have any effect on said captain or its vessel.

Whether a storm is named or not, what is the difference between a depression, or unnamed storm with winds of 35-40 or a storm that is named with winds of 35-40.

Some people on here are extremely arrogant in that they think a name makes a difference. They are way too quick to judge the folks at the NHC on the issuing of a name. Get over it, all of you.
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1285. beell
Photobucket
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Not sure what NHC is tracking, doesn't appear to be the exposed LLC.

AL 94 2009070418 BEST 0 319N 367W 35 1009 EX
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11379
wave around 73w is still holding together somewhat... probably one of the more vigorous waves to make it into the carrib so far this year..

Once it gets into the western carrib any chance for development?
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
Oh well nothing going on in the tropics lets watch some 2009 Blue Devils

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxIZXOY0p2A
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1281. IKE
Quoting bappit:
Made a gif out of the floater loop showing 94L being sheared.

94L getting sheared

Some pretty strong convection is located near the center early on--which may be what got it named an invest--then the whole mass of air above the low level circulation is blown to the east. Someone watching on radar would probably at first think the system was moving east because that's where the rain is going, but that would be an illusion. It looks like a has-been now.


Next!
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1280. bappit
Made a gif out of the floater loop showing 94L being sheared.

94L getting sheared

Some pretty strong convection is located near the center early on--which may be what got it named an invest--then the whole mass of air above the low level circulation is blown to the east. Someone watching on radar would probably at first think the system was moving east because that's where the rain is going, but that would be an illusion. It looks like a has-been now.
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1279. IKE
Planet Earth's invest....

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1278. IKE
Looking at the 12Z GFS, it shows nothing in the Atlantic through July 20th.

Heavy rain along the eastern gulf coast early next week from a trough coming down.
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Here is a question for all: When was the last time that the Pacific Basin only had one named storm up to this point and the Atlantic basin had nothing named?
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1275. fsumet
2004 SST anomalies compared to 2009 (Look at central and eastern Pacific):

July 3rd, 2004


July 2nd, 2009


So 2009 is not 2004. Also, those other bad years that were listed (1983, 1992, 2002) had an ACE of 75 or less which is below normal. Overall, this year will be a low ACE year due to a moderate to strong El Nino. That doesn't mean we won't have 12 storms, but most will be weak. Also doesn't mean we won't have one strong one that hits the U.S. or Caribbean, just means that this year will not be above normal.
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Why would everyone be declaring a storm that has not been looked at by the NHC as anything? All models show very high shear values and nothing in the range of development, so why get all in here hyped over nothing?
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2 PM TWO'S VERY LATE
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Right now we are wedged between two patches of dry air and are getting pounded on weather wise. Parts of Northern Broward County are now flooded due to massive rain in the past hour or so.

I thought that the High was supposed to be moving into this area by this weekend, whats going on with that?
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1270. Ossqss
Enjoy the festivities and have a Tall Cool One on this hot, fun day. Most importantly, be safe -- L8R

Bradenton FL

92.5 °F
Clear
Humidity: 60%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 4.0 mphfrom the NNW
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 29.98 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 107 °F
Wheeeh !
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Quoting Weather456:
The Eastern Pacific is slow compared to the Atlantic. By July 3, they normally have 3 named storms.

I think 2009 may be a late starter because July 10 is about next Friday, and none of the models are really hinting much, except for the area off the Carolinas and we have 94L.

Now despite 2009 potentially having a slow start, it does not relate to the critical 10 weeks between July 16 and September 10. More than half of hurricane seasons that start after the July 10 date, have a retired storm by 30 November.

I still do not know how much El Nino will affect this year since, developing El Nino has active early starts (something 2009 lacks). Some El Nino years that were slow starters like 1983, 1992 and 2002, really had hurricane seasons starting with El Nino already confirmed. We started this hurricane season with a developing El Nino, so did 1997, 2006 and 2004. The 2 former years had an early June and July, especially 1997, while we all know what happened in 2004. 2009 has had a developing El Nino and slow start.

July 6 2005

For comparison, the 2004 hurricane season -- which was a particularly bad year for Florida -- was slow to get going. Hurricane Alex did not show up until July 31, and the fourth named storm, Hurricane Danielle, appeared on Aug. 13.

"Last year was a very late start," said McAdie "And back then, people were wondering what does a late start mean."

The answer: not much. Like early starts, late starts don't reveal what kind of season to expect.


456, Think of it this way you have 6 months in a season, from 7/31-8/13 2004 you had Bonnie and Charley effecting the Carribean and FL so in a span of two weeks a quiet season became an active one, it might not even take two weeks just a few days.
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1267. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
spam burgers now thats different
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1266. Ossqss
That sure sounds good Patrick, all I got is Spam. Happy 4th all :)

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1265. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
i'll have two burgers pat
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1264. Levi32
Quoting Patrap:
If a ship capsizes in the past or present,it isnt from lack of weather forecasting or real time Data in today's world Levi.

Your reaching for imaginary straws sport.

Never degrade here, the Good folks who do a great Job.
That does the Public no good in general.

Plus,they have a e-mail address,contact them as they usually respond to inquiries.


Get a Grip..,put on some shorts..and take a walk outside.


LOL


I'm not mad lol. It is just frustrating to see storms (and not just 90L, MANY others) that had TS or hurricane-force winds with a warm-core system over 26C+ waters and they don't name them? That goes against every rule in their book. Why didn't they name them? Their reason is usually that it never did become warm-core to begin with. Ok whatever lol.

While I certainly don't want to bad-mouth them in public, it is not wrong to look objectively at what goes on sometimes. All that said, of course they are the number 1 source which people should trust and turn to in the event of a hurricane threatening their area, and they do a fantastic job. It is their method of naming that either is getting influenced from somewhere else or needs modification.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26716
The Eastern Pacific is slow compared to the Atlantic. By July 3, they normally have 3 named storms.

I think 2009 may be a late starter because July 10 is about next Friday, and none of the models are really hinting much, except for the area off the Carolinas and we have 94L.

Now despite 2009 potentially having a slow start, it does not relate to the critical 10 weeks between July 16 and September 10. More than half of hurricane seasons that start after the July 10 date, have a retired storm by 30 November.

I still do not know how much El Nino will affect this year since, developing El Nino has active early starts (something 2009 lacks). Some El Nino years that were slow starters like 1983, 1992 and 2002, really had hurricane seasons starting with El Nino already confirmed. We started this hurricane season with a developing El Nino, so did 1997, 2006 and 2004. The 2 former years had an early June and July, especially 1997, while we all know what happened in 2004. 2009 has had a developing El Nino and slow start.

July 6 2005

For comparison, the 2004 hurricane season -- which was a particularly bad year for Florida -- was slow to get going. Hurricane Alex did not show up until July 31, and the fourth named storm, Hurricane Danielle, appeared on Aug. 13.

"Last year was a very late start," said McAdie "And back then, people were wondering what does a late start mean."

The answer: not much. Like early starts, late starts don't reveal what kind of season to expect.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1262. Patrap
If a ship capsizes in the past 50 years or present,it isnt from lack of weather forecasting or real time Data in today's world Levi.

Your reaching for imaginary straws sport.

Never degrade here, the Good folks who do a great Job.
That does the Public no good in general.

Plus,they have a e-mail address,contact them as they usually respond to inquiries.


Get a Grip..,put on some shorts..and take a walk outside.

Oh,..the Burgers are done,garb un while they hot.


LOL
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Quoting Cotillion:
That said...

For the AMO period, the usual starts and finishes (So 1995-2008) are:

June 17th start for the first named storm (If you included Tropical Depressions, it would of been even earlier) and November 17th for the finish.

Probably what I was thinking of.

(Not sure how they did it, but I calculated each start and finish by days from the start/end of the hurricane season; then added up, and divided by the seasons totalled.)


Now that I'm thinking about it... that average may well be for tropical storms only. The NHC didn't have a defined position for subtropical storms until the last decade.

So, the Jul 10-Nov 3 for the tropical season makes some sense even with the large mass of numbers. It may be slightly off as more storms were recorded from 1970 onwards due to better technology.

But, *while I could be very, very wrong*, I don't think they included subtropical storms, which would likely change the average by up to 2 weeks either side. A couple of examples:

1976: First subtropical storm was on May 21st, first tropical storm wasn't until July 28th... 2 months later.

1992: First subtropical storm was on April 21st, first tropical storm wasn't until August 16th or so.

Yes, these are extreme examples but certainly not alone.

But if this is correct, then it's out of kilter somewhat.

(Of course, I'm musing with statistics... as said, it doesn't matter when it starts, or when it finishes: only takes one. They get named when they get named. Still, discussion is interesting.)
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2004. The first storm Alex, formed on July 31st. There were 15 named storms in 2004. Doesn't really matter when the season starts. Even if we don't get 15, any storm hitting the US makes it an active season.(IMO) It's all perspective. If you don't get affected of course it's gonna seem like a slow season.
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Quoting Patrap:
The NHC's Job isnt to Satisfy bloggers ,or name storms they think should have been Named,..

That's moot always..and not even,er.. part of the Mission Statement.

Whether a Storm/Invest /depression is Named never matters to the Impact.
This a People business,not a numbers one.

The NHC has no agenda or means to an end.
They are Skilled Met's doing their Jobs the best they can.

Nothing weird about that.

Oh.,.an pass the Mustard please.



NHC Mission Statement

The NHC mission statement is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. It is important for you to pay attention when you hear alerts, watches, and warnings provided by this official hurricane organization. By listening to information given and the official National Hurricane Center concern behind it, you will be able to make education decisions on preparing for a hurricane, preventative damage, and protecting your family.



you get a nice "+" for that comment.
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Quoting Patrap:
Thew NHC Job isnt to Satisfy bloggers ,or name storms they think should have been Named,..

That's moot always..and not even,er.. part of the Mission Statement.

Whether a Storm/Invest /depression is Named never matters to the Impact.
This a People business,not a numbers one.

The NHC has no agenda or means to an end.
They are Skilled Met's doing their Jobs the best they can.

Nothing weird about that.



NHC Mission Statement

The NHC mission statement is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. It is important for you to pay attention when you hear alerts, watches, and warnings provided by this official hurricane organization. By listening to information given and the official National Hurricane Center concern behind it, you will be able to make education decisions on preparing for a hurricane, preventative damage, and protecting your family.



I'm not so sure about the possibility of a hidden agenda or means to an end. There is a tremendous amount of pressure to be right--Government dollars are at stake.
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1257. Levi32
Quoting Patrap:
The NHC's Job isnt to Satisfy bloggers ,or name storms they think should have been Named,..

That's moot always..and not even,er.. part of the Mission Statement.

Whether a Storm/Invest /depression is Named never matters to the Impact.
This a People business,not a numbers one.

The NHC has no agenda or means to an end.
They are Skilled Met's doing their Jobs the best they can.

Nothing weird about that.



NHC Mission Statement

The NHC mission statement is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. It is important for you to pay attention when you hear alerts, watches, and warnings provided by this official hurricane organization. By listening to information given and the official National Hurricane Center concern behind it, you will be able to make education decisions on preparing for a hurricane, preventative damage, and protecting your family.



Yes Pat I'm not that arrogant lol. Of course they don't live to satisfy me, but I'm not the only one that gets frustrated with them for being so inconsistent on their naming protocols especially with systems less than 24 hours from our coastline that affect people greatly. I've heard stories of ships being capsized because they had no clue something was there because the NHC didn't even give it a second look. Their rules and criteria are inconsistent.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26716
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good pat

if it was up to the bloggers they would be naming every t storm that pops up

lol


That's almost what the Berlin Uni does, a name for each low and high. Paradise for some.
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1255. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
good pat

if it was up to the bloggers they would be naming every t storm that pops up

lol
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1254. Patrap
The NHC's Job isnt to Satisfy bloggers ,or name storms they think should have been Named,..

That's moot always..and not even,er.. part of the Mission Statement.

Whether a Storm/Invest /depression is Named never matters to the Impact.
This a People business,not a numbers one.

The NHC has no agenda or means to an end.
They are Skilled Met's doing their Jobs the best they can.

Nothing weird about that.

Oh.,.an pass the Mustard please.



NHC Mission Statement

The NHC mission statement is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. It is important for you to pay attention when you hear alerts, watches, and warnings provided by this official hurricane organization. By listening to information given and the official National Hurricane Center concern behind it, you will be able to make education decisions on preparing for a hurricane, preventative damage, and protecting your family.

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1253. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
actualy the atl is above compared to the rest of world wide basins
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That said...

For the +AMO period, the usual starts and finishes (So 1995-2008) are:

June 17th start for the first named storm (If you included Tropical Depressions, it would of been even earlier) and November 17th for the finish.

Probably what I was thinking of.

(Not sure how they did it, but I calculated each start and finish by days from the start/end of the hurricane season; then added up, and divided by the seasons totalled.)
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1251. Levi32
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


looks pretty slow to me

THE COUNT SO FAR

cpac basin
1 invest

epac basin
3 invests
1 hurricane

atl basin
4 invests
1 T.D.


World-wide it is very slow....but everyone was talking about the Atlantic by itself. It's not a late start yet for the Atlantic, and we could very easily have had Anna and Bill by now if the NHC wasn't so weird. They may still get named in post-season analysis anyway. If that had come true people would be saying this is another 2005 start.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26716
1249. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:


It's not even a late start. You guys are just used to early starts the last few years. Over half of all hurricane seasons don't even see their first named storm until after July 10th.


looks pretty slow to me with atl being above the other 2 basins

THE COUNT SO FAR

cpac basin
1 invest

epac basin
3 invests
1 hurricane

atl basin
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1247. Patrap
Heat Advisory

Statement as of 11:45 AM CDT on July 04, 2009

... Heat advisory remains in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening...

Hot conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon. Afternoon
high temperatures will range from the mid to upper 90s. These
temperatures will combine with moderately high humidity levels to
produce heat index readings ranging from 105 to 110 degrees this
afternoon.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned
room... stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and
neighbors.





Record Report

Statement as of 2:05 am CDT on July 04, 2009

... Record high temperatures tied at New Orleans International
Airport and Audubon Park...

the record high temperature of 98 degrees was tied at New Orleans
International Airport yesterday. The previous record was set in
1970.

The record high temperature of 98 degrees was tied at Audubon Park
yesterday. The previous record was set in 1969.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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