July hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:26 PM GMT on July 02, 2009

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Atlantic tropical cyclone activity typically picks up a bit during the first half of July. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, seven of 14 years (50%) have had a named storm form during the first half of July. The busiest first half of July occurred in 2005, when three hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. As seen in Figure 1, most of the early July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Carolina waters. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes begin to occur. These are spawned by tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. Tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes. Last year's Hurricane Bertha was one such rare early July Cape Verdes hurricane. Bertha's 120 mph winds made it the sixth strongest early-season Atlantic hurricane on record. Bertha also set the record for farthest east formation as a tropical storm, hurricane, and major hurricane, so early in the season.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes 1851 - 2006 that formed July 1-15. North Carolina and the Gulf of Mexico coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Oddly, the Florida Peninsula has been struck by only two storms that formed in the first half of July.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) anomalies have warmed slightly over the past two weeks, but are close to average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America (Figure 2). These are the are the coolest SST anomalies we've seen since 1994. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. Stronger-than-average trade winds were observed through most of the period November 2008 - May 2009, which helped cool the tropical Atlantic substantially. Strong winds mix up colder water from the depths and cause greater evaporative cooling. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average-strength trade winds through mid-July, so SSTs should remain near average during this period.

Typically, July tropical storms form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida. SSTs are about 1.0°C above average for this time of year in the Gulf of Mexico, but near average elsewhere. July storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. There will be one or two fronts moving off the U.S. coast over the next two weeks, and we will need to watch these for development. Wind shear is too high and SSTs are usually too cold in July to allow African tropical waves to develop into tropical storms. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes,

Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 2, 2009. SSTs were near average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño
El Niño conditions continue to amplify over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures there rose 0.5°C over the past two weeks, and are now 0.45°C above the threshold for El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Figure 3). NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch in early June, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños, and latest set of mid-June runs of the El Niño computer models are almost universally calling for El Niño conditions to become well-established for the peak months of hurricane season, August - October. It is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed in 2009 due to the strong upper-level winds and resulting wind shear an El Niño event usually brings to the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of June 28, 2009, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.95°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in July over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past two months has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Tropical Depression One formed at the end of May.

The jet stream is forecast (Figure 4) to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. This means that the waters offshore of the Carolinas are the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period.


Figure 4. Wind shear in m/s between 200 mb and 850 mb, as forecast by the 06Z July 02, 2009 run of the GFS model. The position and strength of the subtropical jet stream is forecast to change little over the next two weeks, and this jet will bring high wind shear to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into mid-July. There will at times be a region of low shear between the polar jet (northern set of arrows on the plots) and the subtropical jet, allowing for possible tropical development off the coast of North Carolina. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
June and July are the peak months for dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past month. Expect dust from Africa to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in July.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has not changed much, and is typical for June and July. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the typical July pattern, bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast capable of recurving any July storms that might form. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 50% chance of a named storm occurring in the first half of July. Given that none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the coming seven days, and SST and wind shear patterns look pretty average, I'll go with a 20% chance of a named storm forming during the first half of July.

Vote for Mike Theiss as an Antarctica blogger
Extreme weather photographer Mike Theiss, who wrote our Ultimate Chase photography blog for two years until a new job took him to South America, wants your help. He's entering a Quark Expeditions competition to receive an expense-paid 2-week trip to Antarctica, where he will do some intensive photography and blogging. In order to go, he needs the votes to show that he's a popular blogger. So, if you liked his posts while he was blogging for wunderground, and want to see him blog for wunderground during this potential Antarctica voyage, go to http://www.blogyourwaytoantarctica.com/blogs/view /220 and cast a vote. It takes about 3 minutes navigate through the registration and voting process. Mike will be back chasing hurricanes this August, and has promised to post his excellent storm photos on wunderground should we help him secure the Antarctica gig.

Have a great holiday weekend, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I haven't read back on any posts, good morning everyone! Anything out there? Models predicting anything?


Models are starting to predict a few storms forming over the next few weeks. So, we should have things to watch. I am not exactly sure when or what models. You'd have to ask IKE or Weather456.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1546. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
800

WHXX01 KMIA 051235

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
1235 UTC SUN JUL 5 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942009) 20090705 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090705 1200 090706 0000 090706 1200 090707 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 16.5N 108.7W 17.3N 111.0W 17.9N 113.1W 18.4N 115.4W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 36KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 36KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090707 1200 090708 1200 090709 1200 090710 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.9N 117.6W 20.6N 121.7W 23.0N 125.2W 26.1N 127.9W

SHIP 40KTS 42KTS 34KTS 29KTS

DSHP 40KTS 42KTS 34KTS 29KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 108.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 106.0W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 103.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1545. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94E



INITIAL TIME 0Z JUL 5



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 15.7 106.5 295./13.0

6 15.9 107.3 281./ 7.9

12 16.7 108.7 301./16.2

18 16.8 109.6 278./ 8.8

24 17.0 111.0 276./12.8

30 17.3 111.8 291./ 8.5

36 17.4 113.0 272./11.2

42 17.5 113.8 278./ 8.3

48 17.4 114.6 266./ 7.1

54 17.5 115.5 272./ 9.1

60 17.5 116.3 271./ 8.0

66 17.6 116.9 280./ 5.7

72 17.5 117.7 266./ 7.4

78 17.4 118.4 260./ 7.1

84 17.2 118.9 246./ 4.4

90 17.1 119.2 259./ 3.6

96 16.9 119.6 240./ 4.1

102 16.8 120.1 256./ 5.0

108 16.4 120.5 225./ 5.7

114 16.1 120.7 200./ 3.5



STORM DISSIPATED AT 114 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
I haven't read back on any posts, good morning everyone! Anything out there? Models predicting anything?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
1543. IKE
Eastern Caribbean wave may be what the Houston,TX. met was talking about with increasing tropical moisture. Timing would be about right.

From the morning discussion, Houston,TX...."RAIN CHANCES MIGHT
GO UP AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO POSSIBLY
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1542. IKE
Quoting Weather456:



That piece there was from June 24. The wave entering the Caribbean right now.


NAM takes it W to WNW. Keeps it active all the way across the Caribbean. May head to the Yucatan.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
456--Do you think any development is possible?? Seems like an unfavorable environment.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting IKE:


One at 20E must be the one the latest ECMWF picks up on.

Looks like some things to watch.



That piece there was from June 24. The wave entering the Caribbean right now. IOW, it can be traced back as far as 20E on June 24.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wind Shear unfavorable for development now....but shear tendencies showing decreasing shear. Maybe will turn out to be something to watch.

456---Did you mean wave at 24 E?


Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1538. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
Our wave entering the Caribbean is a long-track classic wave:

June 24

The other wave near 20E is strong and is forecast to reach the coast on Monday as one, if not, the strongest wave of 2009. The GFS also develops this feature but not as strong.


One at 20E must be the one the latest ECMWF picks up on.

Looks like some things to watch.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Our wave entering the Caribbean is a long-track classic wave:

June 24

The other wave near 20E is strong and is forecast to reach the coast on Monday as one, if not, the strongest wave of 2009. The GFS also develops this feature but not as strong.
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1536. IKE
Quoting IKE:


Yeah. Interested in seeing where it goes or if it survives 40 knots of shear.


12Z NAM has that wave heading toward Jamaica.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1535. IKE
Quoting AllStar17:


The one in the E Caribbean?


Yeah. Interested in seeing where it goes or if it survives 40 knots of shear.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:


That wave looks impressive.


The one in the E Caribbean?
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
for those in SWFL:the 25th annual offshore grand prix will be racing at 11am and 1pm,you can view the races from south longboat key,ledo key and north siesta key....some of the boats are capable of going over 200mph!!!!!!!!!!!!,come on out for the fun in the sun!!!!!!!!
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1532. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND TPW IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVE AND FAST MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. COLD CLOUD
TOPS AND DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AROUND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH DEVELOPING CELLS JUST WEST OF ST KITTS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM ST MAARTEN AIRPORT SHOW GUSTY WINDS WITH A
REPORT JUST OVER 30 MPH. NAM12 SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZING WELL
SHOWING 700 VORT FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO ITS NORTH...LIKELY
ASSISTING THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. EXPECTING BEST MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY TO MOVE OVER THE
USVI 13-16Z AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY 18-21Z. GUST POTENTIAL WITH
THESE CELLS SHOULD APPROACH 30 KTS OVER WATERS...MAY GO WITH A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42060 LOCATED ABOUT 50 SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX ALREADY SHOWING
8 FOOT SEAS WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT NORTHEASTERLY...DENOTING TOP
EDGE OF WAVE AXIS APPROACHING AND VERIFYING SCA CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIB WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. GOING GRIDS
HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON SCENARIO AND WILL LEAVE FORECAST OF NUMEROUS
RANGE POPS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN TACT.

MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH DEEP EASTERLIES CONTINUES OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AS THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND GUST POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS...VI AND MOST OF COASTAL PUERTO RICO. BACK SIDE
OF WAVE WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER INTO VI BY 15-18Z
MONDAY...DRYING THINGS OUT FROM EAST TO WEST...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
A BUSY CONVECTIVE DAY MONDAY AS WELL. AFTERWARD...NAM12...SAHARAN
AIR LAYER IMAGERY...AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS IMAGERY ALL SUGGEST
DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) TO MOVE OVERHEAD AGAIN. WITH
LOW MID LEVEL SOUTH-EASTERLIES AND HOT TEMPS AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

WED-THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE MORE MOISTURE FROM A TUTT REFLECTION
UNDERNEATH U/L LOW PROGGED TO BE EAST OF LEEWARDS AT THAT TIME.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1531. IKE
Quoting AllStar17:
Environment will certainly become more favorable for development over the whole tropical atlantic over the next few weeks. Also, just watched the TWC tropical update, and Dr. Steve Lyons said they would keep an eye on the eastern Caribbean tropical wave for maybe some development. Usually Steve is one of the first to write storms off in terms of development.


That wave looks impressive.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1530. IKE
Nice view
of the trough heading for the gulf-coast and 94L, in the far eastern Atlantic, heading east.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Environment will certainly become more favorable for development over the whole tropical atlantic over the next few weeks. Also, just watched the TWC tropical update, and Dr. Steve Lyons said they would keep an eye on the eastern Caribbean tropical wave for maybe some development. Usually Steve is one of the first to write storms off in terms of development.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1528. IKE
Quoting beell:
Morning, Ike-we're looking at the same thing, I think.


True. LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1527. beell
Morning, Ike-we're looking at the same thing, I think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1526. beell
Morning, all,

GFS is finally starting to look normal for mid-July. Strong signals in the model for two or three strong tropical waves that make the traverse across the Atlantic. First one to enter the Carribean next Monday or Tuesday. A stronger modeled wave behind this one. Change is in the air?

Both charts @700mb
07/05 06Z GFS at 216 hrs
Tuesday, 07/14


From the 00Z at 228 hrs
Tuesday, 07/14
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1525. IKE
Eastern Caribbean wave might have a chance, but 40 knots of shear to it's west is a road block....for now.

Houston,Texas morning discussion is hinting at tropical moisture moving into their area the end of the 7 day period. Eastern Caribbean wave?

GFS and ECMWF both show a system moving west in the eastern Atlantic in the next 1-2 weeks. ECMWF shows it approaching the islands in ten days with a small low attached. Maybe something will come of that.

That's it for the tropical Atlantic. Trough in the east should keep the SE USA safe for the 5-7 days.


EDITS>>>Oh yeah, this blog is in snooze mode.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1524. IKE
I see the trough heading toward the gulf-coast. Looks like my turn for rains next week.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1523. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Hi Ike,
Did you see any fireworks last night in Defuniak Springs?


Sure did.

Saw quite a bit. Comparable to the fireworks on this forum at times.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Hi Ike,
Did you see any fireworks last night in Defuniak Springs?
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Quoting cg2916:
94L looking pretty good.
It's been dropped by the NRL
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I guess the earliest known tropical activity:

“Hurricane Elisenda”, similar to Hurricane Joan.
330 BC
Nicaragua
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1517. Dakster
Mike Theiss - I voted for you as well. Good Luck! Please share some your photos after you get back!
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Hi Mike!
Good Luck and I voted for you as well, hope you had a good July 4th!
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456,
A very nice blog entry thank you for taking the time to research it and write it.
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Quoting MikeTheiss:
Thanks Dr. Masters for such a great blog about the July Hurricane Outlook and Thanks for mentioning to your views about the contest I entered to go to Antarctica...

Please everyone help me live my dream and go to Antarctica ! I am doing all i can to campaign this out and make it happen. PLEASE VOTE for me (Mike Theiss). You can see all the info and see the voting instructions at the following link: www.HelpMikeWin.com



I Voted for you too Mike!!

All the best to you!!! May your DREAM come true!!!
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94L is not on the Navy Page now - also no yellow circle.
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1511. cg2916
94L looking pretty good.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning;

Climate Change and Caribbean Coral Reefs

Tropical Update: Changes Ahead, Welcomed Rain




456,waiting for the rain to arrrive here this afternoon.Yes,this wave was the one GFS had with a low 2 weeks ago.Lets see what happens with the new scenario that GFS shows.
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1508. Walshy
Link


Charlotte,NC

Found some interesting footage.
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI

AOI

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

good morning pottery
i wish we can get lots of rain it is mostly dry and very hot like upper 80s-lower-mid 90s
East End had quite a bit of rain this past week. Wouldn't mind getting some more but thankful for what we have had so far. Cut the grass last weekend and just about ready to cut again.
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1489. MikeTheiss -- done
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1503. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning. Having a lovely morning here at 11n 61w.
It's pouring down...........

Aye man
Whats up?
This is the july we know...had some rain earlier,just a light drizzle at the moment
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning. Having a lovely morning here at 11n 61w.
It's pouring down...........

good morning pottery
i wish we can get lots of rain it is mostly dry and very hot like upper 80s-lower-mid 90s
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
1501. pottery
Good Morning. Having a lovely morning here at 11n 61w.
It's pouring down...........
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in the 06 gfs models from 300 hours-384 hours has a storm following bertha track
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting MikeTheiss:

Please everyone help me live my dream and go to Antarctica ! I am doing all i can to campaign this out and make it happen. PLEASE VOTE for me (Mike Theiss). You can see all the info and see the voting instructions at the following link: www.HelpMikeWin.com

<
/em>


Voted for you. Wish you good luck!
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1498. Dar9895
Quoting scott39:
do any future models show developement in the carrb when the wind shear goes down?

No
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
For those in SE Texas..

I was with my family today and we were talking about this hurricane season. My dad told me that someone (can't remember who) who has predicted some storms (here the past couple years - may be longer but first we have heard) has predicted a bad storm for our area this year....saying that Port Arthur (which is not far from us) is suppose to get messed up pretty bad. Supposedly he has been right about these past storms. What is funny (not funny haha),is that this about the 3rd time I have heard something like this.....

Not saying this is going to happen,i mean who knows...but, I thought i'd just let you know what I heard.... Season is slow right now, but we still have a few months to go.


Ugh! Port Arthur is just a couple miles south of me... I reside in Orangefield.. that would not be good... that would bring huge devastation to the oil industry as well.

There's always a bright side to everything... that would give me a reason to go see a good friend of mine a couple states north
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