New $50 million hurricane research center: a bad idea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on July 01, 2009

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Hurricane track forecasts have improved by about 50% over the past twenty years, which has undoubtedly saved many lives and billions of dollars. These forecast improvements have primarily resulted from the investment made in hurricane research, which has been funded at approximately $50 million per year over that period. To me, it is unfathomable that our nation spends so little on scientific research that provides such an incredible value. The President's National Science Board, which makes budget recommendations for the National Science Foundation (NSF), agrees, and recommended a six-fold increase in hurricane research spending to $300 million per year in a 2007 report. But exactly how much "bang for the buck" are we getting from hurricane research? The answer is murky, making it difficult to excite the kind of attention and political appeal needed to give hurricane research funding the big shot in the arm it deserves. However, recent moves by the Obama administration show that they are taking notice of the need to spend more money on hurricane research. But, a recent proposal by Rep. Alan Grayson, D-Florida, to build a new $50 million hurricane research center in Orlando, is the wrong way to boost hurricane research.


Figure 1. A science team led by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (HRD) prepares for a mission into Hurricane Gustav in 2008. Image credit: NOAA/HRD.

How current hurricane research is funded
In 2008, about $50 million was spent by the U.S. government on hurricane research, with about 25% of this total going to maintain the facilities that do the research. The $50 million funded 228 person-years of research. About 35% of this was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with the rest of the money coming from the National Science Foundation (NSF), Office of Naval Research (ONR), and NASA. An additional $4 million was earmarked by Congress in 2008 to fund NOAA's promising new effort to improve hurricane intensity forecasts--the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP).

Where future funding increases should go: HFIP and JHT
The President's proposed FY 2010 budget continues the roughly $50 million dollars the hurricane research community traditionally gets, but adds $13 million in funding for the HFIP effort. To me, this is a great way to channel new hurricane research funding, as the HFIP effort is heavily focused on improving hurricane intensity forecasts, which have not improved at all over the past twenty years. Specific advancements outlined in the HFIP plan include:

1) Improving hurricane track forecast accuracy by 50% out to 5 days by 2018.
2) Improving hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by 50% out to 5 days by 2018.
3) Extending the lead time for hurricane forecasts out to 7 days.
4) Reducing the false alarm rate for rapid intensity forecasts.
5) Increasing the probability of detection of rapid intensification.

Another great way to boost hurricane research funding would be to put more money into NOAA's Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) project. This $1 million per year program has funded 50 separate hurricane research efforts over since 2001, 30 of which have been adopted operationally by the National Hurricane Center. Examples of successful JHT projects include the successful integration of the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) surface wind measurement instrument into NHC operations; improvements to the GFDL and HWRF computer models; and improving techniques to make a "consensus" forecast based on the output of our four best computer models. However, no new money for JHT has been proposed in the FY 2010 budget, though some of the money earmarked for HFIP may flow into JHT.

A new $50 million hurricane research center proposed
Instead, a new proposal for hurricane research funding has been championed by Representative Alan Grayson, D-Florida. According to an article in the Orlando Sentinel, Grayson is pushing for a new $50 million hurricane research center to be built in Orlando. He demanded that such a hurricane research center be built in exchange for his vote for the controversial climate change bill passed Friday by the U.S. House, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009. There is no language in the actual bill authorizing funds for such a center--Grayson merely has the word of democratic lawmakers, including President Obama, that such a center would be built. "I think it's a very worthwhile project. I look forward to working on it and making it a priority as the legislative process moves along," said U.S. Rep. Henry Waxman, the California Democrat who sponsored the bill, in the Orlando Sentinel article. The center could be constructed with funds aimed at helping states "study and adapt to climate change," money that would not be available until 2012 at the earliest. The hurricane center is "among the type of activities that would be eligible to receive funding," Waxman said. "We've never had anything [like this] come into this district before, ever," said Grayson, a freshman lawmaker. "This will be the world-leading facility for hurricane research. This will draw people from all over the world."

Well, I have championed efforts to give more funding to hurricane research over the years, and I think the $300 million per year in funding for the National Hurricane Research Initiative proposed in 2007 by the President's National Science Board is what is needed. However, I think Grayson's proposed new hurricane center is a bad idea. Florida already has a world-leading facility for hurricane research, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division on Virginia Key, and does not need another. The U.S. hurricane research community has an infrastructure in place that works, and the best way to foster hurricane research is to pump money into this existing infrastructure. I talked with a number of senior hurricane research scientists about the idea of a new hurricane research center, and none of them supported it. It's great that Rep. Grayson's wants to put new much-needed funding into hurricane research, but he didn't consult with the experts to see if a new research center was a good way to do this. It isn't. Where are all of the scientists needed to staff such a center going to come from? Presumably, they will be drawn from existing successful research teams, leading to the disruption of these proven research efforts. Adding a new national research center with a new bureaucracy with new management needing on-the-job training will dilute and distract from current hurricane research efforts, and is not a good way to spend $50 million. Several senior hurricane research scientists are going to be reaching out to Rep. Grayson over the next few months to make him more aware of the abilities and needs of the hurricane research community. Hopefully, these efforts will result in a more productive way for the Congressman to boost hurricane research. If you live in Rep. Grayson's district, I recommend you contact him to express your desire to see him champion a more effective way to boost hurricane research than with his proposed $50 million hurricane research center. Putting the $50 million into the National Hurricane Research Initiative (HFIP) effort would be a better use of the funds. To his credit, Rep. Grayson is a co-sponsor of the National Hurricane Research Initiative of 2009 (H.R. 327), a bill introduced into the House of Representatives on January 8, 2009. This bill is a lesser ($150 million per year) version of the $300 million per year National Hurricane Research Initiative proposed in 2007 by the President's National Science Board.

Good links for HFIP information are at:

http://www.nrc.noaa.gov/HFIPDraftPlan.html
http://www.dtcenter.org/plots/hrh_test/workshop20 09/presentations/1_Gall_HRH%20HFIP%20presentation. pdf

Some summaries of recent HFIP activities in the last year are at:

http://www.dtcenter.org/plots/hrh_test/index.php
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/tropical _cyclones/hfip/workshop_2009/

My next post will be Friday, when I'll have the first half of July hurricane outlook.

Jeff Masters

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Well its a given, based on almanacs, turtles, love bugs, ants, ground hogs, current temps, models 3,743 hours out...Texas will be hit with not one, but 2 hurricanes on Sugust 27 and Sept 17. Come on, do you really think anyone's GUESS as to what, when, why, how, how big and how strong have any TRUE merits ?

Now, lets move along people.

With ludicrous posts that relate to the above, comments about the stock market and commodities trading are far better posts.

Bottom line, when it happens, it happens. Where it happens will be where it happens. And until something of substance is out there, just be aware and ready.
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wonder if that means Houston,TX will have a hurricane this year? LOL

Hmmmm,Houston is about 2 hours away from us....
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Hey all! We see very few ants here, but I saw tons of ants swarming everywhere this morning while I was out exercising - does that mean I'm going to get hit by a hurricane :o) LOL


I would not have believed it, but check your computer. No kidding.

NASA moves to save computers from swarming ants
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New Blog
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Here we go here in SE TX:

CITY OF LEAGUE CITY
Message sent - 7/2/2009
Reminder:Mandatory Water Rationing

The City of League City has reached MODERATE Water Shortage Conditions. City Ordinance NO 2002-26 and the League City Drought Contingency Plan requires that we enact a stage 2 response to this water shortage. Stage 2 response requires that citizens follow the listed MANDATORY rules regarding water conservation. This mandatory water rationing goes into effect Thursday, July 2, 2009. This plan should allow the City to achieve a ten percent reduction in daily water demand.

Water Use Restrictions as required by City of League City Ordinance NO. 2002-26 and The League City Drought Contingency Plan.

Water use restrictions: Under threat of penalty for violation, the following water use restrictions shall apply to all persons:

1. Irrigation of landscaped areas with hose-end sprinklers or automatic irrigation systems shall be limited to Tuesdays and Thursdays for customers with even-numbered addresses, and Mondays and Wednesdays for water customers with odd-numbered addresses, and irrigation of landscaped areas is further limited to the hours between midnight and 5:00 a.m., and between 8:00 p.m. and midnight on designated watering days. However, irrigation of landscaped areas is permitted at anytime if it is by means of a hand-held hose, a faucet filled bucket or watering can of five gallons or less, or a drip irrigation system.

2. Use of water to wash any motor vehicle, motorbike, boat, trailer, airplane, or other vehicle is prohibited except on designated watering days between midnight and 5:00 a.m. and between 8:00 p.m. and midnight. Such washing, when allowed, shall be done with a hand-held bucket or a hand-held hose equipped with a positive shutoff nozzle for quick rinses. Vehicle washing may be done at any time of the immediate premises of a commercial car wash or commercial service station. Further, such washing may be exempted from these regulations if the health, safety and welfare of the public is contingent upon frequent vehicle cleansing, such as garbage trucks and vehicles used to transport food and perishables.

3. Use of water to fill, refill or add to any indoor or outdoor swimming pools, wading pools and Jacuzzi-type pools is prohibited except on designated watering days between midnight and 5:00 a.m. and between 8:00 p.m. and midnight.

4. Operation of any ornamental fountain or pond for aesthetic or scenic purposes is prohibited except when necessary to support aquatic life or when such fountains or ponds are equipped with a recirculation system.
5. Use of water from hydrants shall be limited to fire fighting, related activities, or other activities necessary to maintain public health, safety and welfare, except that use of water from designated fire hydrants for construction purposes may be allowed under special permit from the city.

6. Use of water for the irrigation of golf course greens, tee boxes, and fairways is prohibited except on designated watering days between midnight and 5:00 a.m. and between 8:00 p.m. and midnight. However, if the golf course utilizes a water source other than that provided by the city, the facility shall not be subject to these regulations.

7. All restaurants are prohibited from serving water to patrons except upon request of the patron.

8. The following uses of water are defined as non-essential and are prohibited:
i. Washing down of any sidewalks, walkways, driveways, parking lots, tennis courts or other hard-surfaced areas;
ii. Using water to wash down buildings or structures for purposes other than immediate fire protection;
iii. Using water for dust control;
iv. Flushing gutters or permitting water to run or accumulate in any gutter or street; and
v. Failing to repair a controllable leak within a reasonable period of five days after having been given notice directing the repair of such leak

For water conservation tips and/or questions concerning this notice, please call 311.


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Hey all! We see very few ants here, but I saw tons of ants swarming everywhere this morning while I was out exercising - does that mean I'm going to get hit by a hurricane :o) LOL
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Quoting Levi32:


Well low shear doesn't always mean good upper-level conditions. When you see a very narrow corridor of low shear like that, it doesn't usually mean a good environment for hurricane formation. For example, the axis of a TUTT (upper trough) will have zero shear right at the axis. So will the center of an upper low. Both these environments will not support a hurricane, so the shear maps can be deceiving.

In this case there is a positively tilted TUTT north of the Antilles which is showing up as low shear along its axis. As you get into the Bahamas there is a squashed ridge axis pointing ENE, and there is low shear as well. But the reality is both these areas would not support a major hurricane at all when you look at the upper air flow. The TUTT is always bad news for tropical systems and the squashed high provides no ventilation. The trough pressing down from the north over the SE US wouldn't be good for a developing storm either.



not to mention the amount of moisture and temp thruout the troposphere!!!!,TC's don't do well no matter what the shear if there's dry air in the UL....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
909. I had just read the MSNBC article about this phenomenon. Fascinating material, especially:

Quoting MSNBC:
"We spent all last week trying to figure that out," Webster said. 'It looks like it might be a hybrid," with warming starting in the east and them moving west, possibly meaning more hurricanes late in the season.
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Quoting conchygirl:
How about some research on love bugs..

Now, how about love bugs? Heavy love bug season, less canes/more canes and vice versa. What type of love bug season was 2004-2005? This year there were very few love bugs.

Silly stuff! :)

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY EVERYONE!!!!!!!


Very true. I hardly saw any love bugs.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
921. Skyepony (Mod)
The Carolina bred blob in the Atl the CMC has occationally hinted at pulling together enough to harass the Azores.
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Quoting Patrap:
I just use Google News,with HURRICANE and get a lot of stuff..



You can google anything and get interesting info :)
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Quoting Dar9895:
The 1995 and 2004 hurricane season is far the most notables for me, followed by 1996, 1998 and 2003 (especially of long-lived storm such as Cape Verde hurricanes and ACE near 50 or over).
What about you guys.
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How about some research on love bugs..

Now, how about love bugs? Heavy love bug season, less canes/more canes and vice versa. What type of love bug season was 2004-2005? This year there were very few love bugs.

Silly stuff! :)

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY EVERYONE!!!!!!!
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Quoting atmoaggie:


I would like to see Dr. M do a blog on this research and analyze it further. Would be very good slow-early-July material.

It's got to have good roots with Peter Webster and Judy Curry involved, in my opinion.


Yes I'd like to hear his and other opinions about this. I'm new to this El Nino thing. But this would certainly be an important find, I guess you could say, in the field of meteorology. Not to mention important to hurricane forecasting. I'd love to hear more.
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The 1995 and 2004 hurricane season is far the most notables for me, followed by 1996, 1998 and 2003.
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NORTH MIAMI
BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. A STORM SPOTTER REPORTED A
WALL CLOUD WITH STRONG ROTATION AT MIAMI GARDENS DRIVE AND
INTERSTATE 95.

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A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. THIS WAVE IS VERY BROAD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATING AN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING NEARLY A 1000 NM
AREA. THE AXIS IS PLACED ROUGHLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE WHERE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS SUGGEST A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NEAR 10N29W. SYNOPTIC PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOW A 3 MB PRESSURE INCREASE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...INDICATIVE OF THE WAVE PASSAGE. QUIKSCAT DATA REVEALS NE
20-25 KT WINDS W OF THE AXIS N OF 14N DUE TO THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF
THE ITCZ.


Humm, Interesting...
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Quoting AllStar17:
The wave at about 35W is pretty big, and has a large area of cyclonic turning. Any chances for development?


The shear is a bit higher but there are dry and dusty air around it, so perhaps not yet.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
909. Wow. Atmo. That is interesting. Hmmmm. Different but interesting. :)


I would like to see Dr. M do a blog on this research and analyze it further. Would be very good slow-early-July material.

It's got to have good roots with Peter Webster and Judy Curry involved, in my opinion.
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We just had a nasty storm roll through here in PSL. It was really windy and turned the power off for 30 minutes.
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909. Wow. Atmo. That is interesting. Hmmmm. Different but interesting. :)
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How interesting...

New type of El Nino could mean more hurricanes make landfall

"Normally, El Niño results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall," said Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.

That's because this new type of El Niño, known as El Niño Modoki (from the Japanese meaning "similar, but different"), forms in the Central Pacific, rather than the Eastern Pacific as the typical El Niño event does. Warming in the Central Pacific is associated with a higher storm frequency and a greater potential for making landfall along the Gulf coast and the coast of Central America.

Even though the oceanic circulation pattern of warm water known as El Niño forms in the Pacific, it affects the circulation patterns across the globe, changing the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. This regular type of El Niño (from the Spanish meaning "little boy" or "Christ child") is more difficult to forecast, with predictions of the December circulation pattern not coming until May. At first glance, that may seem like plenty of time. However, the summer before El Niño occurs, the storm patterns change, meaning that predictions of El Niño come only one month before the start of hurricane season in June. But El Niño Modoki follows a different prediction pattern.

"This new type of El Niño is more predictable," said Webster. "We're not sure why, but this could mean that we get greater warning of hurricanes, probably by a number of months."

As to why the form of El Niño is changing to El Niño Modoki, that's not entirely clear yet, said Webster.

"This could be part of a natural oscillation of El Niño," he said. "Or it could be El Niño's response to a warming atmosphere. There are hints that the trade winds of the Pacific have become weaker with time and this may lead to the warming occurring further to the west. We need more data before we know for sure."


http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-07/giot-nto062909.php

I see I am going to have to make time to read the full article.
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The wave at about 35W is pretty big, and has a large area of cyclonic turning. Any chances for development?

Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
I have a farmers almanac and it says 2 hits for the Tx/La coasts... both in sept


Well, a hurricane hitting SE TX in Sept. is a pretty good bet. Don't know which Sept. Lol. But they hit here in Sept. more than in other month. On Sept. 13th more than any other day come to think of it. I got all this history stuff on the other computer. Got a lot of time on my hands. Lol. Oh well, who knows. I'll just keep an eye on things. There are no signs I can see that would tell you one was coming. Bout the best warning we can get is from the NHC. Or WU. Places like that. (this?) Unless its Humberto but surely THAT doesn't happen everyday. Lol.
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an offtopic question. I have been looking for what establishes the baseline for all the charts and graphs that I read concerning global temperatures. They all have a "zero" line base that determines the extent of the anomaly.. can anyone tell me how they arrive at that "zero" line. It would have to be some sort of average, but from when to when.. thanks for any help or thoughts, I appreciate it.
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Quoting Patrap:
The study was funded by the National Commission on Energy Policy, a nonprofit based in Washington, D.C.

Study: Hurricane damage on Texas coast to worsen

JUAN A. LOZANO
Associated Press Writer
Thursday, July 2, 2009

GALVESTON, Texas (AP) — Flooding and damage along the Texas Gulf Coast from major hurricanes is expected to be more severe in the coming years due to global warming, according to a study released Monday.

Engineering researchers at Texas A&M University focused on Corpus Christi to illustrate how climate change will affect hurricane-related flooding and storm surge damage along the Texas Gulf Coast.



I thought you said the "doom" blog was three doors down?
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345



Quoting saintsfan06:
What are the chances of all that moisture in the Gulf backing up and giving Nola some needed rain???




Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1220 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2009
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910


Link

Excerpt: 2 p.m.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS VERY BROAD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING AN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING NEARLY A 1000 NM AREA. THE AXIS IS PLACED ROUGHLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WHERE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS SUGGEST A VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 10N29W. SYNOPTIC PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOW A 3 MB PRESSURE INCREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS... INDICATIVE OF THE WAVE PASSAGE. QUIKSCAT DATA REVEALS NE 20-25 KT WINDS W OF THE AXIS N OF 14N DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED W TO ALONG 47W/48W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE ADJUSTMENT IN POSITION WAS BASED ON AN INVERTED V-SHAPE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD WHICH AGREES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LOW TO ITS W IS FUELING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 49W-52W.
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895. SomeRandomTexan

Really......hmmmmmm. Like I said in one on my other post. As hot and dry as it has been,you can't help but wonder if it is the calm before the storm.....
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What are the chances of all that moisture in the Gulf backing up and giving Nola some needed rain???
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I just use Google News,with HURRICANE and get a lot of stuff..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
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Pat once again you amaze me with your your link posting.. you always have a helpful link for everyone! thanks again!
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
One can refer all the Sea Turtles questions to these Helpful folks. Just e-mail them and the should respond in kind.

Louisiana Marine Mammal and Sea Turtle Rescue Program

Sea Turtle Rescue



Photo by Jeff Strout

The Louisiana Marine Mammal and Sea Turtle Rescue Program is a volunteer organization based out of Audubon Nature Institute's Aquarium of the America in New Orleans. It is committed to the humane care and treatment of injured, ill, or out-of-habitat marine mammals and sea turtles.

LMMSTRP works with several other organizations to respond to stranded marine mammals and sea turtles, to collect data about existing populations of marine animals along the Louisiana coast and waterways, and to help researchers develop new knowledge in support of the conservation of marine species
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
I have a farmers almanac and it says 2 hits for the Tx/La coasts... both in sept
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
The study was funded by the National Commission on Energy Policy, a nonprofit based in Washington, D.C.

Study: Hurricane damage on Texas coast to worsen

JUAN A. LOZANO
Associated Press Writer
Thursday, July 2, 2009

GALVESTON, Texas (AP) — Flooding and damage along the Texas Gulf Coast from major hurricanes is expected to be more severe in the coming years due to global warming, according to a study released Monday.

Engineering researchers at Texas A&M University focused on Corpus Christi to illustrate how climate change will affect hurricane-related flooding and storm surge damage along the Texas Gulf Coast.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi32

Hmmmmm,weird two totally different ones. What are the turtles doing here???


I wish I knew. I don't know how to find out what turtles are doing anywhere except by asking people that live there.
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Here's the full 2 p.m. NHC Atlantic Discussion.
Link
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Quoting reedzone:
Wow, from north of the Lesser Antillies into Florida, shear is 5-10 knots! Lets say if a Hurricane were to be north of those islands, heading into the GOM, it would actually have no problem becoming a major storm. Good thing there is no disturbance in that area.


Well low shear doesn't always mean good upper-level conditions. When you see a very narrow corridor of low shear like that, it doesn't usually mean a good environment for hurricane formation. For example, the axis of a TUTT (upper trough) will have zero shear right at the axis. So will the center of an upper low. Both these environments will not support a hurricane, so the shear maps can be deceiving.

In this case there is a positively tilted TUTT north of the Antilles which is showing up as low shear along its axis. As you get into the Bahamas there is a squashed ridge axis pointing ENE, and there is low shear as well. But the reality is both these areas would not support a major hurricane at all when you look at the upper air flow. The TUTT is always bad news for tropical systems and the squashed high provides no ventilation. The trough pressing down from the north over the SE US wouldn't be good for a developing storm either.
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Link
this one says hurricane in Sept.
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When Ana forms that is expected to be a big event. lol


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting hunkerdown:
Why all the wasted money on satellites, models, research...we just need to read the farmer's almanac and watch the turtles. Millions of dollars could be saved. Why has the NHC not picked up on this...hell, why do we even need the NHC if they are not going to give us the turtle reports, graphs, models.
And don't forget the landcrab report!
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Levi32

Hmmmmm,weird two totally different ones. What are the turtles doing here???
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Wow, from north of the Lesser Antillies into Florida, shear is 5-10 knots! Lets say if a Hurricane were to be north of those islands, heading into the GOM, it would actually have no problem becoming a major storm. Good thing there is no disturbance in that area.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi32

Here is the link, where I saw it.

http://www.almanac.com/weatherforecast/us/11


This is mine lol.

Your's is supposedly the "old farmers' almanac"....old vs new....whatever lol. I trust turtles better.

One interesting thing is that both sites predict hurricanes for the Carolinas and New England in late August and September.
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WARNING: Just my opinion, Skip this post to continue with current discussion.
RE: Discussion a couple of pages back, federal funding of research.
Quoting GordoNBrooke:
Article I, Section 8, Clause 8 of the U.S. Constitution:

Congress shall have the power . . . "To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries;"

The fact that the Founding Fathers specifically stated how Congress shall support the progress of science implies the exclusion of other means of supporting, including direct funding.

The reason they did this is because if a government wishes to gain power over the people, it can do so by directly funding scientists and scientific research that will lead to conclusions which will help the government convince the people that they need to give more power to government to "protect" them.
Not sure that I agree with your conclusion as to the Founding Fathers intent. I find the section that I highlighted most interesting. The implication is that if research is funded by The People, after a reasonable time it becomes the property of The People.

It seems that we may be talking about two different animals
1) Funding of agencies which promote the safety and protection of The People (certainly a purview of the feds). Examples would be the NOAA and the Military. Hurricane research would fall into this catagory.
2) Funding of individuals, or individual theories. Examples would be National Endowment of the Arts, research ear marked specifically to prove global warming. - May be a great project, but should it be in the purview of the feds?

: )
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Levi32

Here is the link, where I saw it.

http://www.almanac.com/weatherforecast/us/11
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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