Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 927 - 877

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Nice overcast and windy evening here in Lake Worth. Feels good outside for once.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So where is 94L, lets start that blog going haha.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think it looks better than it did 6-8 hours ago - but I still say RIP. Why? because it looks to be moving into the bay of campeche and mexico - and is staying over the Yucatan longer than it should. I don't see where it is moving into the GOMEX at all. it just doesn't stand a chance! imo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
921. beell
Quoting extreme236:


CPC mentioned the possibility of frontal boundaries sparking some development (gave a low chance of this though due to uncertain shear conditions)


Shear does not look too bad through 60 hours over the GOM. Then a transition back to a split jet that characterized much of May and June. Focus would shift back to the east coast-as a guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

reedzone saw an anticyclone on it so whats your point??


Calm down there buddy :)
I'm not saying it's going to develop, just saying it has a chance, it may not develop at all.. just a wait and see, a slim 30% chance.. Kind of took the 50% out because of the latest TWO. I'm giving it one more night, if it doesn't do anything by tomorrow morning, I'm gonna join the RIPPERS and most likely 93L will be erased form the maps as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay..you Know the Rules Guys,..the Loser eats the Crow,
..right?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L might lose it's invest status on the next update. 93L might not be 93L any longer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
theres a reason the hurricane center says "development is not expected" as opposed to "no development will occur"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

3 crow recipes
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting hurricane2009:


Yup as someone who has watched how the NHC does the outlooks, that is usually the final straw

This is the first TWO that they said "development is not expected"


Also removal of "elsewhere" from the final line.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
907. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


They have to put a "code" on it...anything in their outlooks now has one. And if nothing changes with it, it won't even be in the 2am outlook.


I was thinking that by tomorrow morning the TWO may say.....

Tropical storm formation is not expected in the next 48 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Well.. After all my preaching about 'patience' well, apparently the RIP'ers were right.
So I'm going to call it, and if 93L develops I'll be proudly egged and with a sid of crow.
93L won't develop.

Drak, Ike, I'll take my crow now. I don't think though I will see seconds.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24017
OMG..there Break-Blog Dancing over the Invest..!



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting reedzone:


True, it may not do anything tonight, but because it's in the GOM, it shouldn't be RIPPED. I gave up on it this morning until I saw that new LLC and how convection was developing around it, that's when I bumped it's chances a bit more to a slim chance. Also an anticyclone is right over the invest, so it bears more watching. The NHC made a good call in keeping the yellow code.


They have to put a "code" on it...anything in their outlooks now has one. And if nothing changes with it, it won't even be in the 2am outlook.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How can it possibly NOT develop?? it's a bunch of clouds in the Caribbean/GOM during hurricane season?? Look at the infrared satellite, many of those clouds are pretty shades of orange, red or pink!!


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Isn't that new blow up of red on sat. right where the surface low is at?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scottsvb:
A 1/3 chance doesnt mean its going to develop... that means its probably not. We would have to see something tonight as it gets further off the coast!

BTW the NHC like the NWS adjusts their forecasts every 6 hours in general.


True, it may not do anything tonight, but because it's in the GOM, it shouldn't be RIPPED. I gave up on it this morning until I saw that new LLC and how convection was developing around it, that's when I bumped it's chances a bit more to a slim chance. Also an anticyclone is right over the invest, so it bears more watching. The NHC made a good call in keeping the yellow code.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
Take heart, weather watchers! Potential for the GOM should stay semi-active for home-grown this week as a certain amount of troughing between FL and the Yucatan sets up. This would be between the ATL ridge and the Western CONUS ridge and tied to the stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf coast. A westward moving tropical wave currently along 78W S of 20N per the 0205PM TWD.


CPC mentioned the possibility of frontal boundaries sparking some development (gave a low chance of this though due to uncertain shear conditions)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
895. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:
lol and 93L isn't dead yet


From the horses mouth.....

"THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
894. beell
Take heart, weather watchers! Potential for the GOM should stay semi-active for home-grown this week as a certain amount of troughing between FL and the Yucatan sets up. This would be between the ATL ridge and the Western CONUS ridge and tied to the stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf coast. A westward moving tropical wave currently along 78W S of 20N per the 0205PM TWD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good evening, all. How's our beast to the east looking?


The wave off the coast of Africa?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A 1/3 chance doesnt mean its going to develop... that means its probably not. We would have to see something tonight as it gets further off the coast!

BTW the NHC like the NWS adjusts their forecasts every 6 hours in general.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Big,Bada,..Boomer

O'Yeah,..relief

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259


93l
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53811
886. IKE
Quoting BobinTampa:
Ed McMahon, Farrah, MJ, Billy Mays and now 93L??? say it ain't so?? what a week.


True.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
trof moved eastward on 93l floater(fronts)you never know maybe 93l might move ESE you never know
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ed McMahon, Farrah, MJ, Billy Mays and now 93L??? say it ain't so?? what a week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
882. IKE
93L.....overkill.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
880. IKE
Quoting 7544:


what does all this mean is comback in the making for 93l ?


Probably over with.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting btwntx08:

maybe???


It's a wait and see situation. The NHC would have wrote it off already, but some of the workers probably disagreed, which is why it's still a less then 30% to them. It was a fair call, if nothing happens later tonight, they will and should write the invest off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 927 - 877

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.