Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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I find it hard to Laugh when the K word is used in any terms of Humor.
Just my way,Fred.

Always will be that way for Thousands,..hundreds of thousands even.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
Quoting IKE:
Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L.......


You were right Rob.

Caused many an argument over some moisture.
you know what ike i can't wait till the real deal then it will be 6000 posts in one day instead of 6000 posts in three days
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You people just give up too early. I've found it, just relocated at 50/90. Eh! :)

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Quoting Patrap:
Speak easy when mentioning Katrina ..its June Sport,Not Late August


lol I know

I was just pointing out that Katrina developed out of a weak degenerated wave.
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973. beell
Crow
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972. IKE
Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L.......


You were right Rob.

Caused many an argument over some moisture.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Albeit it is on the verge of dissipation, I'll keep a close eye on it in case of any surprises.
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Speak easy when mentioning Katrina ..its June Sport,Not Late August
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
dammitt captain...i giving it all she's got....lol
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93L deactivate
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Quoting Levi32:
Hi all.

I didn't expect this would get so intense....I guess I should have known better.

Just look at the big picture here. We have a very disorganized tropical disturbance that is most likely to dissipate within a couple days, but it does still have a window of opportunity to get its act together in the southern Gulf of Mexico. These things always have to be watched. Never ignore a surface trough in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane season.


Indeed, Katrina is a quintessence of this.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Just as predicted - RIP 93L. No shock here. 93L had its chance and blew it.

It's normal, a tropical wave moving slowly in the Yucatan, is a certain death.
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Jim,Wait..,

This Invest is still breathing!

93L




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
964. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:
Just as predicted - RIP 93L. No shock here. 93L had its chance and blew it.


What's amazing is....models like the HWRF had it slamming into the west coast of Florida as a strong system....hurricane.

NAM had it as a cane. GFS had it as a low for awhile. GFDL a TS.

But the ECMWF, never had it as anything.



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its nothing more than an area og land base thunder storms on to 94l next


Agree.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its nothing more than an area of land base thunder storms on to 94l next
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8pm NHC advisory discussion:

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
REYNOSA MEXICO/MCALLEN TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM 26N85W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N90W TO
20N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN
83W AND 90W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM GEORGIA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.
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93L - We will never forget you! I am sure some will argue that you should've been named. Some will still post and say you have a chance.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting IKE:
RIP 93L

It's over....finished.
its nothing more than an area og land base thunder storms on to 94l next
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Hi all.

I didn't expect this would get so intense....I guess I should have known better.

Just look at the big picture here. We have a very disorganized tropical disturbance that is most likely to dissipate within a couple days, but it does still have a window of opportunity to get its act together in the southern Gulf of Mexico. These things always have to be watched. Never ignore a surface trough in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane season.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26717
well....where will be the next one develop from...
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Taps,Now Taps...

Semper Fi 93L

Go knowing you garnered more posts to date than any Invest before .

Taps,..now Taps

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
Although there may be the slimmest of slim chances of 93L developing, I have to call it a no go. And since I will not be around for the next two updates, I leave this tribute in memory of the thousands of posts on our soon-to-be parted friend….

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955. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Can I Play Taps for it IKe..?


LOL...go ahead.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Just as predicted - RIP 93L. No shock here. 93L had its chance and blew it.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Can I Play Taps for it IKe..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
952. IKE
RIP 93L

It's over....finished.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
93L has been dropped from the RAAMB Atlantic page.


Last Updated 12 Minutes Ago
Atlantic

* No Currently Active Cyclones



Wah,,wahhhhhhhh..........
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
Quoting reedzone:


Around 22N and 88.8W


reedzone, we'll see. But those coordinates would imply that the system is moving more N than NW. That's what I don't see. Everyone's entitled to their opinions, I just respectfully disagree.
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Quoting Patrap:
er..ya may wanna scroll back to the Like 500th Post to see some were on to the Possible new Center earlier today.
No one actually sees anything "first".

That's so frigging Grade school recess stuff.

Earlier Page


Well Pat some of our bloggers are in grade though lol.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
That's so frigging Grade school recess stuff.

lol your assuming the rest of it, usually isnt.
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er..ya may wanna scroll back to the Like 500th Post to see some were on to the Possible new Center earlier today.
No one actually sees anything "first".

That's so frigging Grade school recess stuff.

Earlier Page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
Quoting tennisgirl08:


What are the coordinates? I just can't see it.


Around 22N and 88.8W
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
On a limb 23n:88w
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
I dunno Patrap. I hope so but it looks like it is about 15 miles to the west and hanging over there.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
man, what is up with all the percentages this season? makes sense from NHC, since they have data and analysis on which to base their percentages ... but from a bunch of bloggers?

i'm going to bump chances of this post pissing people off to 80-90 %

Not pissing me off. I am totally with you. I am a 100% or 0% forecaster. You either go all in or stay away. 30% tells me nothing. That means you have no clue. It means that I think it might happen but it might not. No guts.
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Quoting reedzone:


Not just me, Levi and scottsvb also noticed a possible LLC trying to form.


What are the coordinates? I just can't see it.
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Maybe you'll see some yet HaboobsRsweet
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
NOLA Close in Wu-composite radar
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
The 1011 MB Low has been dropped on the Wave Axis.

Check the Box FRONTS to see the Wave axis.


Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
Patrap, been thundering a bunch over here but not a single drop. Looks like it has been raining over by Biloxi though.
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Quoting btwntx08:
all i know reedzone told me a possible llc just of f the coast and i believe it was heading wnw/nw


Not just me, Levi and scottsvb also noticed a possible LLC trying to form.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting tennisgirl08:


i don't see that at all. where is it moving? do you have a satellite image that shows the center?

The two of them or holding on for a glimmer of hope that it forms. In reailty 93L is dead. They just wont let it go haha.
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A Bigun T-storm Uptown NOLA..perfect Heat Buster
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
About the CV wave, we have to wait in the next 24 to 48 hours to see what happen.
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Quoting btwntx08:

its just off the northern coast now


i don't see that at all. where is it moving? do you have a satellite image that shows the center?
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Nice overcast and windy evening here in Lake Worth. Feels good outside for once.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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