Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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To all of you who stuck with 93 til the end, and to those who still do, dedicated to you...

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1125. Patrap


38 min 51 sec ago
Conn. town cleans up after tornado



(NECN/WTNH: Wethersfield, Conn.) - Crews in Wethersfield, Connecticut have been working through the weekend to clean up the mess left by a tornado on Friday.

The EF-1 class twister packed winds of up to 100 miles per hour and left serious damage to the central Connecticut town.

"We have six homes out of probably about 70 that we've had to condemn, so that's been really rough for residents. But they've done a great job. The tree cutting we've done really well, the main thorough fares are now open," Town Manager Bonnie Therrien said.

There were no reports of any serious injuries. Connecticut Light and Power expected to have power restored to everyone by Sunday night.

Video courtesy of WTNH.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting hurricane2009:
The ULL and Yucatan did a tag team number on 93L and well 93L lost lol

mainly that ULL though, which was orginally forecasted to move away from the invest, it stayed closer and sheared it to bits


Not to mention the 200 swirls that formed each minute of the day to compete with for energy.
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Quoting Willow13:
I'm not sure this will work. I copied the "embed" to show you, if you haven't already seen it, the tornado that started as a waterspout on the St. John's River in Jacksonville.


Please delete this! Never mind - ignore works just fine!
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1120. Ossqss
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NAMMY is reinvigorating invest93
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PERSIST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Hummmm.


They have to put that...even if it was under 60 knots of shear and they mentioned the area of weather they would have to put at least a low chance.
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All I have to say now is...next!
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1110. whitewabit (Mod)
The Navy Page has dropped 93L... No active Invests....
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1109. Patrap
I doubt Id ever forget the wunderground. They and everyone here have been a Great Blessing to Myself and My Family.
Sharing here is a Therapy my Shrinks at the VA say is better than anything they could have done for my PTSD.

So in a way,many here have helped in that regard,to which I'll be forever grateful.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
1106. JRRP
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Jrrp, Are you looking at the blob still on shore? If so look at what is just offshore. Is that rotation I see, or is it my eyes?

i think that is rotation
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1105. pottery
Evening all.
The Tropical Atlantic is ripe for storm development right now.
Very little SAL. A fair amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Warm enough sea.
Everything is go.
Except there are no clouds, and too much shear.
Where is the ITCZ? I need some rain here.........
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LOL Ossqss!
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A confirmed F1 tornado that did major damage in Weathersfield, CT but there is nothing mentioned in either the SPC or the AFD.
Is there a link to localized damage report that im missing?
At this point there was a mile path of destruction from the tornado. Major tree damage, one tree split a house in half. A massave cleanup effort is underway, Many people still without power, especially in the twisters path.
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1100. Levi32
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
So anything developing in SW Carribean soon.Looks like some rain coming off the coast of Colombia.


No I don't think so. Upper-level conditions are not very favorable and this tropical wave is bound for the east Pacific.
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1099. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:
do you have these pics saved on your pc for all scenarios Pat?


No..I just mostly use Google Images.
Patrap Images is a Idea Im floating with a Company not yet to be named,since Im awaiting the Lawyers paperwork and a Check..LOL

Patrap Images


Don't forget us when it takes off !



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Press..more painful than some of the posts on this blog? Glad you are feeling better!
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1096. Patrap
REMEMBERING AUDREY
Posted by The Times-Picayune June 24, 2007 10:44PM
By Ron Thibodeaux
Staff writer




Wrong place, wrong time

Until 2005, Hurricane Audrey was the United States' benchmark killer storm of modern times. Since the National Weather Service began naming hurricanes in 1953, Audrey had claimed more lives than any other storm -- even more than Camille, which all but wiped Pass Christian, Miss., off the map in 1969 -- until it was eclipsed by Hurricane Katrina.

Several factors combined to make Audrey's impact so extreme.

Coastal Cameron Parish is isolated even by modern standards. Tucked into the extreme southwestern corner of the state below broad expanses of marsh, it's an hour's drive from the nearest city, Lake Charles. Fifty years ago, it might as well have been half a world away from anywhere.

In an era predating Doppler radar, weather satellites and Jim Cantore, approaching hurricanes did not attract the kind of attention that modern-day residents of the Gulf South take for granted. Lake Charles' lone television station had begun broadcasting three years earlier, and radio stations from throughout the region could reach Cameron listeners back then, but it's hard to know the extent to which Cameron Parish residents were warned of the approaching hurricane and just how powerful it was.

According to local lore, many residents thought they had more time to seek shelter or higher ground but were caught by surprise when the hurricane strengthened and sped up overnight as it approached the Louisiana coast.

Furthermore, this was a rare June storm in an area that had not experienced a serious hurricane for many years. Even if the appropriate warnings were communicated, many people probably just didn't take them seriously.

Audrey turned out to be the only Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in the United States in June. While it also flooded lower Vermilion Parish to the east and took sustained winds above 100 mph into Calcasieu Parish to the north, Audrey did its worst in Cameron, where some accounts had 20-foot waves riding the 12-foot storm surge at the coast, topped by winds as strong as 150 mph.

The official death toll was placed at 390, but that's widely acknowledged as a low-ball figure; there were individuals or entire families whose bodies were never recovered from the area's wetlands. A variety of state, federal and local sources have estimated the fatality total between 400 and 600.

All in all, it was, for Cameron Parish, exactly the wrong hurricane, in the wrong place, at the wrong time.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
I can't find the video again, but here's some pics - The video was pretty amazing because the tornado jumped directly over the guy with the camera! http://www.ghive.com/surfjaxpier/blog/8923
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.
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1090. Patrap
Ouch...fluids,and bedrest or the Sonic Treatment press?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
1087. Patrap
Jeff Masters Entry on the 50th Anniversary of Hurricane Audrey..from 2007
..
another great read.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Just because a previous storm forms in the same general area, does not mean the same atmospheric conditions are in place for current development. That is just not logical.
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well...I spent the afternoon at the ER....turned out to be a kidney stone...most painful thing I've ever experienced...I have nothing good to say about it...

Anything happening in weatherland that I need to know?
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
Hurricane Alma (1966)

The models themselves are not perfect predictors and contain fudge factors dependent on historical circumstances.


Good education on Alma. Thanks
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So anything developing in SW Carribean soon.Looks like some rain coming off the coast of Colombia.
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1082. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
it's never nothing, until it's something.
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1077. Patrap
do you have these pics saved on your pc for all scenarios Pat?


No..I just mostly use Google Images.
Patrap Images is a Idea Im floating with a Company not yet to be named,since Im awaiting the Lawyers paperwork and a Check..LOL

Patrap Images
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.