Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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1227. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


this is the picture i see
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Oz:Tampa,wednesday,TS....the possibilty is not gone....bout 20%,IMO...
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orca I see a old image too.....
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1224. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
orca the imagest are not updating that your posting friend
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Quoting hurricane2009:


93L is gone, end of story


I think it will stay stationary for a while, become a tropical storm almost in place and then die right there. Just my opinion.
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I worked for a doctor for many years (originally from Brooklyn) who earned both his bachelor's and masters in physics at NYU in four years. Then got his Ph.D. M.D. and worked at Yale, ended up at Stanford. That kind of doctor.
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1221. Michfan
Quoting Levi32:


Um....I'm still seeing the MCC east of Honduras from 48 hours ago on that image....and all your previous updates since that time came and went..


Same here.
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1220. Levi32
Quoting Chicklit:

A medical doctor.
'Don't ignore things 'til there gone' is a good quality to have in the profession of treating illnesses. You have the right attitude for a doctor. Look for everything and be smart about it! Just a suggestion since you said you thought the meteorological field was pretty narrow.


Oh I see. Interesting thought. I don't think the Meteorological field is narrow just hard to get into and get a position that pays decently. It's my range of interests that's narrow lol. I need to find things I can see myself doing for a living.
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1219. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI

SECURITE

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

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Quoting Levi32:


What do you mean by doctor?

A medical doctor.
'Don't ignore things 'til there gone' is a good quality to have in the profession of treating illnesses. You have the right attitude for a doctor. Look for everything and be smart about it! Just a suggestion since you said you thought the meteorological field was pretty narrow.
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1217. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:

Smartass... I update them every couple hours.


Um....I'm still seeing the MCC east of Honduras from 48 hours ago on that image....and all your previous updates since that time came and went..
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Quoting Levi32:


I'd think about updating those images if I were you lol....they're almost 48 hours old.

Smartass... I update them every couple hours.


hmmmmm
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1215. Levi32
Quoting Chicklit:
Levi,
I think you should become a doctor.


What do you mean by doctor?
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Cycloneoz have you tried to hold yourself in place with Wonder Putty during a Storm could be the new pitchman.


(I was thinkin' somethin' more like this maybe...)
CycloneOz here for Mighty Mend-it!
In this demo, I'm to be hit with hundreds of glass slivers. When the onslaught is over, I'll use Mighty Mend-It to piece myself back together again!


Yeah, I could pitch the stuff.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3684
Levi,
I think you should become a doctor.
Quoting Levi32:


It would be if it hadn't been stronger than this yesterday. People tend to discount things that have already come down off of a previous level of expectation. I don't care how bad it looks it's a bad idea to ignore surface troughs in the Gulf of Mexico. Put it on the back burner but be aware of it until it's gone.
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1212. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:
Last one for the night... not much out there to look at.


AOI

AOI


I'd think about updating those images if I were you lol....they're almost 48 hours old.
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1211. Levi32
Quoting stillwaiting:
let me rephrase that,the tail end of a stalling stationary boundry....


If the trough drifted that far north, it's possible, but we have no way of knowing exactly where or how fast this thing will move now. It appears that it is temporarily anchored to the Yucatan due to the day-time land thermal low. It will probably go somewhere tonight, but not very far.
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Quoting BiloxiGirl:
Being from Biloxi I can't believe I am even saying this... but please please send us a lil somethin tropical. A wave or a depression would be just fine. We are dry dry dry and hot hot hot!

Hi Biloxi...if you get what you wish for remember to be grateful!
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Last one for the night... not much out there to look at.


AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1208. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
000
FZNT24 KNHC 290324
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

GMZ089-290930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH MEANDER OVER CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH
MON NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE MOVE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE MON
NIGHT MERGING WITH TROUGH AND CONTINUING W ACROSS BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUE THROUGH WED.

$$
GMZ080-290930-
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH FRI...N OF 27N W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
S OF 27N SE TO S WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 FT.

$$
GMZ082-290930-
SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...E OF 93W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT SHIFT
SE TUE THROUGH FRI. SEAS 3 FT. W OF 93W SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS TUE THROUGH THU.

$$
GMZ084-290930-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...N OF 25N S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. S OF 25N SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SCATTERED
TSTMS S OF 25N THROUGH TUE.

$$
GMZ086-290930-
E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 27N.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N OF 27N SW TO W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4
FT. S OF 27N S TO SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N OF 25N SW TO W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
S OF 25N SE TO S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES

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let me rephrase that,the tail end of a stationary boundry....
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1206. Levi32
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it is'nt even an AOI at the moment


It would be if it hadn't been stronger than this yesterday. People tend to discount things that have already come down off of a previous level of expectation. I don't care how bad it looks it's a bad idea to ignore surface troughs in the Gulf of Mexico. Put it on the back burner but be aware of it until it's gone.
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1205. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
it is'nt even an AOI at the moment
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1204. Levi32
Quoting stillwaiting:
so say if 93L stuck around around the yucatan for another day or 2 and then merged w/a stalling frontal boundry draped across the GOM and central FL tuesday???? or what might happen if a short wave came along north of the stalled boundry over the GOM?????


If you're trying to say that a passing shortwave or frontal boundary would kick-start development, I don't think so. Both features would serve only to shear and squish ex-93L further, and it doesn't need that. It will be drifting very slowly westward or NW over the next several days and eventually it, or whatever is left, will get pulled north.
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1203. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
there is no more 93l its gone
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1202. dis1322
man what a hot day we had here in south texas . mann wee really neeedd the rainnnnn !!!!!!!!!! !!! :(
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1201. JRRP
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Being from Biloxi I can't believe I am even saying this... but please please send us a lil somethin tropical. A wave or a depression would be just fine. We are dry dry dry and hot hot hot!
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so say if 93L stuck around around the yucatan for another day or 2 and then merged w/a stalling frontal boundry draped across the GOM and central FL tuesday???? or what might happen if a short wave came along north of the stalled boundry over the GOM?????
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Quoting jeffs713:

October. hehe. Seriously, its going to need to be pushed out of the way, and the only 2 things that can do that are tropical systems and cold fronts. This being the end of June... don't bet on a cold front.

The high itself is subtropical in nature, and there usually is one parked somewhere around this latitude, although further west.


This is just brutal. I mean, come on, 95 degrees by 9am is a bit ridiculous! ::sigh::
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1197. Levi32
East Atlantic tropical wave is still exhibiting excellent low-to-mid-level turning, but convection is pretty much non-existent. We'll see what happens with it tomorrow.
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1196. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
as was posted earlier

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1195. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
93l going going gone ....
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ABC17 here in Tpa just anwsered my question,I wouldn't be so quick to write 93L off as dead,its just spending a couple days in cancun/cozumel area???,wouldn't you???.....93L=TS ana tuesday night/wed?????
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1192. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

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were is this 3+inches of rain over central/south FL going to come from,TWC always way overdoes these precip amounts....
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Rob thanks for filling for Dr.Masters look forward to the trip pictures in the AM
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See ya!
She's come undone . . . a href="" target="_blank">Link
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Quoting Ossqss:
Its about bandwidth, not storage capacity


YUP! And, storage is cheap. Bandwidth is not and a whole other set of issues.
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Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Evening all...

I may cry if we don't get some rain soon... and if this heat doesn't stop. My car read 108 today. It's hit over 100 for the past week. My poor kids can't even go outside :(

Any predictions on when this high will move from Texas? (and please don't say November)

October. hehe. Seriously, its going to need to be pushed out of the way, and the only 2 things that can do that are tropical systems and cold fronts. This being the end of June... don't bet on a cold front.

The high itself is subtropical in nature, and there usually is one parked somewhere around this latitude, although further west.
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1186. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting pottery:
Actually, I want to correct my post 1105.
The upper, mid, and low level winds in the tropical Atlantic are all Easterly.
Have not seen that before, this "season".
That wave south of the Azores may be one to keep an eye on for true.
ya pottery i've already pegged it at 11.5n/21.2n
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1185. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting pottery:
post 1170, WBB. I am not ecpecting development into anything, except it would be real nice if that wave could make it's way here, and dump some badly needed rains......
how much rains do ya want i see what i can do for ya

lol
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Evening all...

I may cry if we don't get some rain soon... and if this heat doesn't stop. My car read 108 today. It's hit over 100 for the past week. My poor kids can't even go outside :(

Any predictions on when this high will move from Texas? (and please don't say November)
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1182. Patrap
G'night Cowboys and Crows..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
1181. Patrap
Yeah..I remember those tough to post days.
I believe it was that clock drift problem,but it hasnt done that in awhile though,thankfully
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
1180. pottery
post 1170, WBB. I am not ecpecting development into anything, except it would be real nice if that wave could make it's way here, and dump some badly needed rains......
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I was referring to last season...It took forever during a few storms for the blog to refresh or make new postings.
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Quoting hurricane2009:


depends on which set of SSTs you look at

I believe the SSD site shows SSTs a bit more favorable


Mine is about a week old. Probably some updated images out there but I'm too sleepy to Google.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.