Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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Looks shredded...

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Quoting tropicaltank:
I find the blob of the southeast coast to be quite interesting,although there is no associated low.Anybody see a possibility of development?

Not really.
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our invest is rollin west expect nothin I'm depressed(tropically)!!!,lol.....naked swirl
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting tropicaltank:
I find the blob of the southeast coast to be quite interesting,although there is no associated low.Anybody see a possibility of development?


i find it interesting too
as for development...i have no clue
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Quoting Weather456:


My July Outlook,

Not expecting much during the 1st 2 weeks but expecting a near average July with atleast 1 named storm.


Thanks
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I find the blob of the southeast coast to be quite interesting,although there is no associated low.Anybody see a possibility of development?
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Quoting claimsadjuster:
456: what will be before july 1?


My July Outlook,

Not expecting much during the 1st 2 weeks but expecting a near average July with atleast 1 named storm.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm still in wait and see mode. I was doubtful from the get go because of that "no LLC" problem, but I was thinking there was enough going for it otherwise for 93L to make something of itself.

I'm in bearish mode.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I was looking at that. To me it still seems that the Nly drift from the ULL is minimizing whatever circulation there is underneath.

Still bearish.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
We might want to watch off Florida, although nothing spinning as of yet it is in a favored area, and toward's those bath water SST's.
If it persists it might get mentioned on the TWO.
I doubt it. Unless it gets stuck and can't move east, it's likely to be out of the area in 24.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
Thanks Rob for the update.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
looks like any kind of a surface circulation has slipped away due west of the yucatan peninnsula I circled the area on this pic and here's the link to the loop


I was looking at that. To me it still seems that the Nly drift from the ULL is minimizing whatever circulation there is underneath.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
We might want to watch off Florida, although nothing spinning as of yet it is in a favored area, and toward's those bath water SST's.
If it persists it might get mentioned on the TWO.
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looks like any kind of a surface circulation has slipped away due west of the yucatan peninnsula I circled the area on this pic and here's the link to the loop


Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting leftovers:
im still bullish on development the ull has moved further away. gulf of mex is one of the most indusive seas in our world.
I'm still in wait and see mode. I was doubtful from the get go because of that "no LLC" problem, but I was thinking there was enough going for it otherwise for 93L to make something of itself.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
Good morning! Looks like 93L became undone at the Yucatan Straits. From the 8 AM NHC Discussion:

A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N88W TO 14N90W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 2N90W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE WAVE.

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 82W-88W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.

WHILE NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA THROUGH TONIGHT.

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456: what will be before july 1?
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Quoting SLU:
456 ..

I'm awaiting your July outlook. I suspect it will be just as quiet as June or we may just get one or two "weak" systems but nothing like last year. This season could very well fall into line with climatology with most of the activity taking place between August 15th and September 30th with an early end to the season likely.


Most likely 2mr or Tuesday. But it will be before 1 July.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
rip 93L
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Quoting sporteguy03:


Something to watch if it can push over the Penisula, I think we have learned that you don't need a low to cause problems.
Think it's likely to move east.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
AL, 93, 2009062812, , BEST, 0, 207N, 880W, 25, 1009, DB
If this is supposed to be best location of centre for 93L right now, that would imply it is still over land. I was thinking perhaps we would see it move more towards the N end of the wave, which right now is out over the Gulf.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
Quoting cg2916:

I'm talking in terms of tropical development.


yeah that makes sense. Most likely no tropical development.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


Something to watch if it can push over the Penisula, I think we have learned that you don't need a low to cause problems.

I'm talking in terms of tropical development.
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54. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
AL, 93, 2009062812, , BEST, 0, 207N, 880W, 25, 1009, DB


Which is over the northern Yucatan.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


Invest 93L

Invest 93L

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Thanks for the update Rob. Press, you are too funny! Unless directed here by someone, I rarely read the blogs here after about 50 or so posts on a new blog. Too ridiculous most times any more. My issue though, not any of the posters here. Just too much BS and young testosterone jockeying for position to make it informative for the masses.
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Quoting cg2916:
ABout that area of convection off of Florida, it has no associated low with it. So don't get too hyped up.


Something to watch if it can push over the Penisula, I think we have learned that you don't need a low to cause problems.
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AL, 93, 2009062812, , BEST, 0, 207N, 880W, 25, 1009, DB
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Ike
are you still here?
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47. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
And here's the ATL portion of the 8:05 tropical discussion. I'm assuming this is the front that was supposed to kick 93L east? or is it the one coming up behind this one?

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-79W...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 62W-70W.
FARTHER TO THE E...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING NEAR A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N43W AND A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
21N35W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 17N E OF 25W IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N34W TO 27N26W
TO 31N20W AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N20W TO 32N17W TO
NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. ALSO...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N53W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 51W-57W. ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N40W TO 8N43W TO
1N43W.


That's the trough east of the east coast.

You can see the cold front cutting through Arkansas...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Looks like there is a mid level low at 23N 90W.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting stormpetrol:
I could be wrong but looks to me like 93L is being pushed WSW/SW toward the Belize area.

On this link you can see all the forces at work that are pushing 93l sw. To me it seems 93l may never even reach the gulf. Just my thoughts.
Link
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I could be wrong but looks to me like 93L is being pushed WSW/SW toward the Belize area.

I like the sound of that
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About that area of convection off of Florida, it has no associated low with it. So don't get too hyped up.
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42. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That's how it looks to me too but I wouldn't know. Weather456, Ike, Tampaspin any info on this ?


Looks like a general NW drift...for now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
And here's the ATL portion of the 8:05 tropical discussion. I'm assuming this is the front that was supposed to kick 93L east? or is it the one coming up behind this one?

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-79W...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 62W-70W.
FARTHER TO THE E...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING NEAR A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N43W AND A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
21N35W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 17N E OF 25W IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N34W TO 27N26W
TO 31N20W AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N20W TO 32N17W TO
NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. ALSO...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N53W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 51W-57W. ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N40W TO 8N43W TO
1N43W.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
I think that 93L is too disorganized too develop even in the GOM. How about you guys.
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$$
AMZ088-281530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN E TO W ORIENTED RIDGE WILL MEANDER ALONG 24N
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SERIES OF OF WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WED...MAINTAINING STRONG WINDS
BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA.

$$
AMZ080-281530-
SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TODAY...N OF 29N E OF 75W SW TO W WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 27N SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
FROM 25N TO 27N S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. S OF
25N SE TO S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. NUMEROUS TSTMS N
OF 27N E OF 75W DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT AND MON...N OF 28N SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO
8 FT. S OF 28N S TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT EXCEPT
1 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 25 E OF 70W.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N OF 28N W OF 75W SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4
TO 6 FT. S OF 25N SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT...EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.
.WED AND THU...N OF 26N SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN
SW SWELL. FROM 22N TO 26N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. S OF 22N E WINDS 15 TO 20
KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$
FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
Rob.. you need to make up your mind . :) yesterday you said it was going to be a strong tropical storm and were confident.. today almost nothing..lol. I wouldnt give a outcome of a disturbance before we know forsure what will happen. I always stated that chances were under 40%.
I wouldnt give more than a 24hr forecast on this cause we need to see where it enters the GOM and then another 24-36hrs to see if it develops...but then by Tues Night a front will come down east of 90W and pull moisture or anything that is developing ENE along the front. Also if there is anything..it will move intandum with the shear so that shear may have only marginal affect. Right now everything is on a 24hr basis I feel to see what happens! 3 Step process
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I could be wrong but looks to me like 93L is being pushed WSW/SW toward the Belize area.
That's how it looks to me too but I wouldn't know. Weather456, Ike, Tampaspin any info on this ?
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Quoting presslord:
Move along people! Nothing to see here...it's over...move along, please...


"Nothing to see here. Please disperse..."

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Quoting SavannahStorm:


To quote someone wiser than I:

"Nuthin'"
i really wouldn't say nothing because winds there are over 30 knots and not rain contaminated, we just need it to develop a tropical low which will probably not happen because this convection is not something that will last a long time, imo.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Today's going to be a slow blog..
I think we should look off Florida.
Morning all. Ted, that area of clouds had got it overcast, grey and still in Nassau today. Last night there was some serious-looking activity associated, so we will see what eventuates as the day progresses. It'll be ironic if this turns out to be more of a "big deal" for FL than (soon to be former) 93L.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
Press, no matter what is going on or how crabby I am, you always can make me smile.
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Move along people! Nothing to see here...it's over...move along, please...
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To quote someone wiser than I:

"Nuthin'"
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Great update. I agree.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Yes we need to wait until it gets into GOM.
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Sure feels kind of soupy out there - VERY tropical feeling outside, little bands of wind going on...nothing off our coast though. Just WIERD.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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