Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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Quoting BahaHurican:
97. Weather456 10:26 AM EDT on June 28, 2009

Morning, 456. Do u know anywhere else I can find a mean high forecast map like the one u posted? or one that shows the historical mean AB highs?

TIA


Well I cant find any other that shows the forecast A/B high but there are quite a few that shows the mean high.

Dr. Masters uses this site but its not as popular with me.

This is the one I use the most though
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im off till later... bye guys
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
The rippers are the same people who hype it the day before... they have no patience ever... everything has to always be everything or nothing...

Currently it is still producing a little convection but the chances of this thing forming has gone down since it is spending more time than expected over land. It is hard for a system that is not formed to survive for very long over land. Once it gets into the GOM we all konw this storm has looked its best at Dmin, kinda opposite of what most storms do, but we shall see
correct and now that ULL is moving fast to the west I think it will allow wave to get into GOM.
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Be back after a while. Got some stuff to do.
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NexSat Close in ZOOM of the GOM ,Yucatan
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hurricane2009--- right on man.. i remember you posting that yesterday... also enjoy following ur opinions
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120. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
I never follow anything in the Atlantic till it reaches the Windward Islands.


I don't either...not in June.

Rebuttals rebutted:yes, something can rarely form out there in June.

With this season heading into an El Nino....an average to below average season is becoming more likely.
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Quoting Patrap:
I never follow anything in the Atlantic till it reaches the Windward Islands.
I think kidcay was implying it would be more interesting to watch that EATL feature than 93l. I don't know what to make of that E coast area, except likely to move out to sea pretty quickly.
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haha! yesterday rob said it would be a Cat 1 cane...hehe and today he rips it
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GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.
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Who knows, this storm hasn't followed any logic so far. I bet the reason is keeping it on yellow is because they really don't know what this thing will do.
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Has Rob R.I.P.ed 93L?

Wow, that's pretty cool! :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3753
10W ?

I never follow anything in the Atlantic till it reaches the Windward Islands.
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Quoting Patrap:
East Atlantic?,..er the shaded area is the Western Atlantic,but East Coast will work.
Look at 10W on the map. It's still over Africa.
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The rippers are the same people who hype it the day before... they have no patience ever... everything has to always be everything or nothing...

Currently it is still producing a little convection but the chances of this thing forming has gone down since it is spending more time than expected over land. It is hard for a system that is not formed to survive for very long over land. Once it gets into the GOM we all konw this storm has looked its best at Dmin, kinda opposite of what most storms do, but we shall see
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110. IKE
For what it's worth....NAM 12Z buries 93L in the BOC.
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97. Weather456 10:26 AM EDT on June 28, 2009

Morning, 456. Do u know anywhere else I can find a mean high forecast map like the one u posted? or one that shows the historical mean AB highs?

TIA
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Quoting G35Wayne:
93L went poof . Just like the season will do


We are still in June.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys I think the possible east Atlantic system will be more interesting
I'm looking more at the EPAC right now. We have three Twaves going into that high potential belt in the next 7 days. This might be our next pop. Anything off the African coast I think will take a while to make something of itself, or at best blow up and die off as some models are suggesting.
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East Atlantic?,..er the shaded area is the Western Atlantic,but East Coast will work.
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That ULL is really booking west now.
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93L went poof . Just like the season will do
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guys I think the possible east Atlantic system will be more interesting
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so far, 93L has been a great practice run...we have had very well thought out analysis's by those with so much knowledge...put into terms that even I can understand...Well done...Ya'll have done a great job...Oh, and I have really enjoyed the video's (gives me the whole picture in one spot)....Thanks
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Short Floater - Visible Loop
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Here's an idea of our steering flow for July. All this is included in the outlook. Troughs do not dominate the US East Coast to the extent we saw in May and June.





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still 60% chance of rain over Penisula according to my local forecast. Maybe that will drop?
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That is very true 09.
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94. IKE
Looks to me like the center is moving west across the Yucatan. If that's the case it won't be over water until tomorrow...or what's left of it.
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wow to think that yesterday we were dubbing this a major threat to the Gulf, a monster hurricane in the making and other hyped-up names. It is still only june of a El-nino season so don't expect much yet
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look like a weak spin at 19.8n 85.8w
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Quoting hurricane2009:


dvorak has always been saying that

the healthiest this thing looked was on Thursday night

It appeared to split in two and then couldn't reform, or form, I should say, since it never really established a low center. bbl
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11353
90. IKE
Quoting hurricane2009:


They are better at forecast the track AFTER something forms


I understand your point, but those same models have done good at predicted a trough in the east with a cold front heading to the gulf-coast...and a low over the great lakes region.

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Ooh, the Dvorak says 93L is too weak to classify.
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86. IKE
Quoting hurricane2009:
The forecast models this season have been horrible really, I mean really horrible


Not just the GFS but all of them


I agree as it relates to the tropics. ECMWF has done okay.

The HWRF spinning up a healthy cane out of 93L is CMC like.

Just don't believe models for tropical systems. Like throwing darts at a dart-board.
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85. Skyepony (Mod)
2009~ I second that. It's about scarey how off the models are right now.. Not only are they not in agreement, none are nailing anything.
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93L GOES Satelitte Rapid Fire.Doesn't look THAT bad, does it?
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83. Skyepony (Mod)
Here's a nice, tight animated nexsat of the convection blowing up east of FL.

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Looks like 93L will live out its brief days in Cozumel. Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11353
I may be late with this...however

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/06/27/ap/tech/main5119072.shtml
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IMO... We should be leary of what the tail end of the cold front is going to leave in the middle of the GOM mid to late this week
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Wind shear is a rather powerful factor in determining tropical cyclone development and took precedence over all other factors (which were more than favorable) this past month.

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Looks shredded...

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11353

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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