Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 177 - 127

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

That is a definite ..LOL.

TWO Madness you could say.

Its a Moot point actually,the storm has no ears and no IP addy.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting IKE:
93L is moving mostly west. Threat to USA diminishing...as it looks like it's heading for the BOC.


Here's a HI-RES visible loop showing the swirl of clouds left.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
The Masses get the info mostly from Local Mets and Broadcast Media.

Not the NHC page..been my experience.


Year your right good point, but the masses on this blog can get carried away with the TWO as we have seen in the past with it posted so many times.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5414
My blog on June 4

Tropical Invest 92L

Invest 92L is gone and current satellite imagery and surface observation still show some weak reflection as it continues to weaken and eventually dissipate or be absorbed into a larger low pressure area.

There is still some debate over whether 92L was a subtropical storm or not at its peak on June 2. The system had clusters of organize deep convection near its center of circulation with the highest winds, 45 knots, also found near its center. Subtropical numbers from the Satellite Service Division peaked at ST 3.0 (45 knots) yesterday which is derived from analyzing subtropical cloud patterns seen on satellite imagery. Finally, probably the most striking piece of evidence was the warm-core seen on microwave imagery from AMSU, which indicated tropical characteristics. Here we clearly see a subtropical storm but Invest 92L was moving over waters near 16C and the NHC states average sea surface temperature that helps lead to subtropical cyclogenesis is 24C (75F). In every tropical weather outlook they stressed the point of the sea surface temperatures and was probably the likely cause for the lack of classification.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Well I cant find any other that shows the forecast A/B high but there are quite a few that shows the mean high.

Dr. Masters uses this site but its not as popular with me.

This is the one I use the most though
Thanks, 456. This is what I was looking for.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane2009:


That looks subtropical to me



it was
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Tropical invest 92L


invest 92 is the only storm of the season so far IMO that should've been named.. If Vince was named then so should've that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Masses get the info mostly from Local Mets and Broadcast Media.

Not the NHC page..been my experience.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hi all...

Lets hope Invest 93 continues to disintegrate...
We don't need any major storms!

Have a great Sunday...

No majors, BFoxx, but sure was hoping for several inches from some tropical downpour. :)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting Weather456:
June was interesting though,




let me guess invest 92L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Short Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting Patrap:
Well ,thats the obs and all they have atmo..its Valid as it comes.


I hear you. Make the best of what obs we get. However, there are few circumstances where 700mb obs can tell us much about surface winds. A well-developed TC is one. An invest is not.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Patrap,
Good point but the masses usually don't look at the stuff we view on here like water vapor or imagery they go off the TWO, which in my opinion is better then nothing as long as the person who reads it understands the context of what they are reading.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5414
161. IKE
93L is moving mostly west. Threat to USA diminishing...as it looks like it's heading for the BOC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In addition the upper level low to the west of this disturbance has given it fits displacing most thunderstorm activity.

Just a swirl of clouds now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Short Floater - Visible Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
where in the pumpkin patch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane2009:


yup based on what was in front of everyone here, conditions were supposed to be more favorable in the Gulf then they are, also 93L wasnt expected to be over the Yucatan this long

Had those things been different, we could be talking about a much different situation


If 93L had passed right on through the channel and been there, or further east right now, it could be quite different, right now. That (if it could contend with a little shear) or a quick emergence over the BOC (except for the divergence). No real perfect spot at the moment, though...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi all...

Lets hope Invest 93 continues to disintegrate...
We don't need any major storms!

Have a great Sunday...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane2009:


what system is that?


Tropical invest 92L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well ,thats the obs and all they have atmo..its Valid as it comes.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Had those things been different, we could be talking about a much different situation

...and if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his butt.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hah! And these guys are still picking up mid-level turning and carrying it down to surface levels.

I think it is fine methodology once a system is developed (read: stacked) with a 700mb circulation very similar to what is going on near the surface, but has questionable validity, at best, for an invest.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
June was interesting though,



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As a rule,and Ive done a few storms here,I dont follow the TWO Graphic,I follow the System and post relative real-time imagery and discuss the Current situ.

Rarely if ever do I offer a forecast,cuz Im not a met,and there's no such thing as a amateur Met,were Hobbyists at best.
Just like there are no amateur Astronauts.

Remember this,..The NHC ,when they type the TWD or the TWO are going off of info that's actually stale by a Hour or More.
It takes that time to actually banter the obs and come to a conclusion on what to write and have it approved for the Masses.
Thats why I focus on the Storm,Invest etc.
Not some colored circle that show a probability.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting PELLSPROG:
The BIG one WILL form ,in time , just wait :)




I hope not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Also many folks on here had good reasons based on information at the time why 93L could develop, it could of very easily have gone the other way as well and did but it didn't. I appreciate that insight and wanted to say thank you.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5414
From what we have seen so far coming off of Africa, and we get later into the season, into the time frame of the CV season... I think we will get more then our fair share of action.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For those learning on this site including myself the lesson learned from the TWO is that simply because a system is given a medium chance 30-50% that does not mean it will develop sometimes I think that gets blurred.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5414
The BIG one WILL form ,in time , just wait :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One can Modify and change text all day. But a RED EDIT shows on the WU-server and all is seen ,before and after.

When about to post something er,..controversial..I always use that preview Button.

Saves a lotta grief in the Long run.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090

"Think outside the Cone" hurricanebuddy.com
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting IKE:


You're gonna get banned talking like that.

I edited the post.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Development is tough with divergence at 850 mb.



This may be what the statistical genesis product was picking up on and predicting no chance for 93L, which likes the mid-atlantic a lot more than Yucatan, BOC, or open GoM.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
136. IKE
...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
135. IKE
Props to CIMSS for the continued problems posting information about shear.

Just like in 2008....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting G35Wayne:
93L went poof . Just like the season will do


poof.
Only June and people are writing off the season. 2008 didn't see a storm form in June, Arthr crossed into June. 2004 didn't see its first stom til July 31st. Sorry If I offended anyone yesterday, Im getting tired of it, writing off stuff. You think after 2008, 2007 people would learn their lessons. Regarding 93L it still has a chance once it gets in the gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Increasingly unfavorable conditions now commencing into the gulf as the trof begins to dig.Overall things still very disorganized and no signs of a surface circulation developing.

No worries anywere across the tropics enjoy your sunday. Adrian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
131. IKE
Quoting hurricane23:
Increasingly unfavorable conditions now commencing into the gulf as the trof begins to dig.Overall things still very disorganized and no signs of a surface circulation developing.

No worries anywere across the tropics enjoy your sunday. Adrian


This isn't necessarily directed toward you but.....

What happened to the....shear will be low....in the GOM?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
The rippers are the same people who hype it the day before... they have no patience ever... everything has to always be everything or nothing...

Currently it is still producing a little convection but the chances of this thing forming has gone down since it is spending more time than expected over land. It is hard for a system that is not formed to survive for very long over land. Once it gets into the GOM we all konw this storm has looked its best at Dmin, kinda opposite of what most storms do, but we shall see


Thank you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
man that ull is really moving wnw and can see some moisture on the back side of it...i wouldn't call it off just yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not only that Ike,but there are no area's to threaten before the Windwards.
And if its A Cyclone,we can ride the Models till something reaches the CONUS or GOM
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting BahaHurican:
97. Weather456 10:26 AM EDT on June 28, 2009

Morning, 456. Do u know anywhere else I can find a mean high forecast map like the one u posted? or one that shows the historical mean AB highs?

TIA


Well I cant find any other that shows the forecast A/B high but there are quite a few that shows the mean high.

Dr. Masters uses this site but its not as popular with me.

This is the one I use the most though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 177 - 127

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.