Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 227 - 177

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

456 i think it has maybe a 5 percent chance and thats being nice
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
I wouldn't call RIP but its pretty damn close. Is it safe in here today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Most of this RIPing stems from disappointment. Until the invest dissipates, I don't think it should be discounted. Though the area looks pretty disorganize.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL MOVE W OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD TROUGH WILL MEANDER
OVER OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON MERGING
WITH THE TROUGH AND CONTINUING W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT.


Think the NHC is finally seeing the writing on the wall...look for them to say unlikely for development of 93L on the next TWO.
yeah i think the yellow alert will be gone ike and this blog will finally calm down over 6000 posts over three days is a lot for just an invest
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Quoting centex:
Ok, have you looked at shortwave? Anyway it's moving much faster now.

no but if you can send it to me it would be nice:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
222. Dr3w
Quoting btwntx08:
i bet 93L will come out of nowhere and surpise everyone and everyone will say omg we got this wrong cause we cause it rip but it didn't


i agree

you cant ever sleep on a storm

there is always a possibility of something forming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

i'm looking more at 19.9n 87.8w
Ok, have you looked at shortwave? Anyway it's moving much faster now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
220. IKE
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL MOVE W OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD TROUGH WILL MEANDER
OVER OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON MERGING
WITH THE TROUGH AND CONTINUING W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT.


Think the NHC is finally seeing the writing on the wall...look for them to say unlikely for development of 93L on the next TWO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
FZNT24 KNHC 281400
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL MOVE W OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD TROUGH WILL MEANDER
OVER OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON MERGING
WITH THE TROUGH AND CONTINUING W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT.

MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
1030 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU...N OF 25N S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT. S OF 25N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 25N THROUGH TUE.

$$
GMZ086-282130-
E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
1030 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 25N.
.TUE...S TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
TSTMS N PART.
.WED AND THU...N OF 25N S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3
FT. S OF 25N SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 25N.

$$
FORECASTER NELSON
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
218. IKE
I see the 12Z GFS has dropped the CATL wave.

Model is a joke on the tropics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have seen things like 93L plenty of times and it's not rip yet...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Local met just said RIP on tv for 93L. He said it was nothing to worry about and at most it would increase the moisture in the gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
I think the area to watch is currently at about 21N 87.5W. movement W or WNW. I'm waiting to see what happens when this area reaches GOM.

i'm looking more at 19.9n 87.8w
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
211. IKE
12Z GFS takes 93L across the BOC. Or kills it in that area.

Attention USA: All clear!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PORTCHARLOTTE72:
93l is dead reality is setting in i feel like jumping off a bridge

You need to drink some orange juice and take a little walk.
What you have is called blob-blues.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
like I said before,,no one knows anything.
people who predict the stock market are always wrong and the same goes for weather.
I know it's fun to do, but to read this stuff is mostly a waste of time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
93L is finished we are watchin the end of it now friend get over it its only june 28 we got 155 days to go iam sure you will get what your looking for




lol....I'm still holding on to the 10-20% chance....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think the area to watch is currently at about 21N 87.5W. movement W or WNW. I'm waiting to see what happens when this area reaches GOM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
the nothern part of the CATL wave at 37 W looks a bit interesting. convection has been on the increase------just an observation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good morn oz guess its safe to say you are not planning the run into 93l anymore
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285

Invest 93L

AOI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane2009:


90L should have been too, but when the NHC makes the statement "Another 6 hours over water and it would have been naamed", something tells me it wont get upgraded in post-season analysis.


Yeah, I somewhat disagree with the NHC this year because if a storm meets all requirements,
but is in a hostile environment or close to
land it doesn't get named.. I mean if it's a storm just because they don't expect it
to last long doesn't mean it isn't a storm now.
But I could be wrong about this too, i mean they're experts and maybe they didn't have closed circulations or w/e, but i know invest 92 was not extratropical as they said..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


LINK



Thank you :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:



a t-wave hanging out in the southtern GOM for a couple days,the shear forcasts have been wrong for the last few days,its still a wait and see,93L is not RIP yet!!!!
93L is finished we are watchin the end of it now friend get over it its only june 28 we got 155 days to go iam sure you will get what your looking for
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Quoting Patrap:
The Masses get the info mostly from Local Mets and Broadcast Media.

Not the NHC page..been my experience.
Until I started reading here in '05, NHC was my source. I would have revelled in the kind of TWO that they have now.

While a majority of the people don't automatically turn to NHC page for everything, there are quite a few weather "savvy" people out there who will access NHC's page once they know a storm is out there.

It's not the same as what we do - i. e. watching each TWO like it's a golden egg or something - but they get hit pretty regular most days in the season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just 2 days left until I release the GOES East Infrared Animations for June 2009!

My experiments with how to present the two (2) animations were successful and all we're doing now is just waiting for time to pass and for GOES images to be uploaded to the server! :)

Once the final image has been received (6/30/2009 @ 8 PM MDT), it's just a matter of rendering the 10,000 frame animation and uploading it to YouTube.

Have a great day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RainyEyes:
Good morning everyone! I guess it is due time (for real this time) to RIP 93L. Anyone have any updates about the blobs emerging off of the African Coast?


LINK
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Till this day, I go back at look the 30-35 knots winds reported by buoys as 90L approach the Gulf coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Crazy on a Ship of Fools..


.."More distant from you by degrees"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Quoting hurricane2009:


Based on what?



a t-wave hanging out in the southtern GOM for a couple days,the shear forcasts have been wrong for the last few days,its still a wait and see,93L is not RIP yet!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

INV/93L
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Quoting hurricane23:
In addition the upper level low to the west of this disturbance has given it fits displacing most thunderstorm activity.

Just a swirl of clouds now.
One of the things that didn't pan out as expected was that ULLs movement. I recall expectations of that dropping to the SW, where it would have been more or less out of the way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93l is dead reality is setting in i feel like jumping off a bridge
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning everyone! I guess it is due time (for real this time) to RIP 93L. Anyone have any updates about the blobs emerging off of the African Coast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just cause obs exist (ones that are not direct, unbiased measurement) does not make them automatically valid. It is incumbent upon anyone relying on any obs to be well versed on what was measured, what calculations were carried out on the measurements, and what caveats exist. I could parlay this onto all sorts of "proof" of AGW, but most of those would be bad comparisons...they are making worse assumptions than this one in many cases.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:


Here's a HI-RES visible loop showing the swirl of clouds left.


Which one? There's the main swirl at 23n 90w. Then another at 24n 87w. Then a final one that's mostly midlevel moving north east at 25.2n 85.1w. This things flying apart.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L isn't over yet,IMO.....I'd say that none of the models have a clue,and in the next 24hrs w/could possibly still have a TD ion the GOM!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No major Watches or Warnings cept for beau coup Heat Advisories either.

Severe Map
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
well good morn looks like she failed to refire during the morning and therefore will be gone soon good did not want any thing anyway

had a nice interesting area at 31/77 around 3 am still there looks better than inv 93l does
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Quoting sporteguy03:
For those learning on this site including myself the lesson learned from the TWO is that simply because a system is given a medium chance 30-50% that does not mean it will develop sometimes I think that gets blurred.
Good point. Someone the other day was saying that just because all the conditions for formation are in place, it doesn't mean a TC will form. And isn't 456 always talking about the "necessary but not sufficient" when it comes to cyclogenesis?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


National Radar View NEXRAD..


...not much precip Nationally this am.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355

Viewing: 227 - 177

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.