Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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That's the problem with tropical disturbance across the Yucatan, it will take many time to organize and become a tropical cyclone.
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Just wait and see, 93L has some surprises yet in store for us. Remember a couple of years ago there was a sickly disturbance and everyone thought it was going to die well guess what, it was a Td the next day or so and later became a Cat 5 hurricane. I wouldn't count out any development yet even though it looks to be dissapating.
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Quoting Michfan:
Link

Poor Billy. What a week.


Maybe the bump on the head during that flight landing was more than he knew. Either that or maybe the stress got him.
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imo i say do not write this system off until it gone. I have gut feeling here. I do not post much here but this thing may surprise us. but who am i. this thing is trying to hang on and not giving up. have to wait,watch and see.
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You guys should have payed attention to the DAM model runs lol.
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Quoting RainyEyes:


What is up with the 50 year olds dying? He was aboard that US Airways flight that the tires blew out. reminds me of the movie...where they were all suppose to die but cheated death then odd things happened. crazy. So in a week, Ed McMann, Billy Mays, Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson. Wow
Wow. I hadn't heard about Ed McMann. . . We had a local DJ (well-know personality type) die this week, also around 50. Must be the weather.
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Link

Poor Billy. What a week.
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Quoting Drakoen:
93L is facing northerly shear and subsidence. It developed a low level cloud swirl too late. Not expecting any further development.


I agree.
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Quoting Dar9895:

Perhaps something like 1996 and 2008 Bertha or 2005 Emily.


Those three were Cape Verde storms. It is possible we may see one in July but I meant atleast 1 in general.
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People die everyday,..and to die is ones own Bed while asleep is a Blessing many say.

He had a good run Billy.

In the end,were all just passing thru.
Life is a waiting room,I just hope they dont call me too soon.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
93L is facing northerly shear and subsidence. It developed a low level cloud swirl too late. Not expecting any further development.
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ahhh 24 hrs for an invest is an eternity...... anything can happen and will happen
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Quoting Weather456:


My July Outlook,

Not expecting much during the 1st 2 weeks but expecting a near average July with atleast 1 named storm.

Perhaps something like 1996 and 2008 Bertha or 2005 Emily.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Billy Mays is dead. They found him in his Tampa home.


What is up with the 50 year olds dying? He was aboard that US Airways flight that the tires blew out. reminds me of the movie...where they were all suppose to die but cheated death then odd things happened. crazy. So in a week, Ed McMann, Billy Mays, Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson. Wow
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No ...not billy Mays noooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!! the humanity
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Brazil has a Baseball team..?..

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
What is up with all these big named people dying all of a sudden? I just saw him a few weeks ago going down the road in his Bentley.
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See Living in Tampa is BAd for ones health..
Its a Sham, er Shame..WOW.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Well,theres goes the Blog...LOL
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nah nah nah , nah nah nah nah, hey hey hey goodbye (93L)., Now lets focus on the real things,,, Go USA beat Brazil!!!!
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Floater - Visible Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
LOL!
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Billy Mays is dead. They found him in his Tampa home.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no but if you can send it to me it would be nice:)
Link
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Is it just me or does that look like a little bit of convection trying to get going around the "naked swirl" in the western gulf. Just an observation.
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Quoting IKE:



Think the NHC is finally seeing the writing on the wall...look for them to say unlikely for development of 93L on the next TWO.


I agree Ike...... 93L looks like a Flock of Seagulls to me! LOL
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93L looks like its split in 2 to me.
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Quoting IKE:


Yes, because 93L is moving toward the BOC and will not threaten the gulf-coast. Maybe SE Texas will get a shower off of it.
At least the models all agree on one thing- that the plume of moisture to the east of the circulation (or what is left of it) will overspread the entire state. 93L developed just enough to get some nice moisture up to Fl. Perfect storm.
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239. IKE
Based on what KOTG just posted, there isn't much left of it to watch.
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Lowercal's Blog handles all the Launches Live on the wunderground.



Lowercal's Blog
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667


AOI/INV/93L
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
Quoting btwntx08:
theres is no tropical wave in the boc all there is was the ull dumb nhc ppl

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
June 25

A tropical wave is currently located in the Central Caribbean just south of Hispaniola moving off towards the west near 14 knots. This wave has increase in some forward speed and is expected to move into the Western Caribbean by weekend. Currently, the wave is producing low-level shallow moisture but limited deep convection. Some of the models are indicating that this wave may seek to increase some low level vorticity as it nears the Yucatan Peninsula and take a weak low level disturbance northwestward across the area. Anything forming will not move too much northward as a potent high pressure ridge builds westward over the Gulf of Mexico. I will continue to monitor this feature but regardless of development, some low level moisture may spread across Jamaica and the Caymans later today or Friday and then showers across Mexico, Cuba and Belize through the weekend.
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Quoting Michfan:
I wouldn't call RIP but its pretty damn close. Is it safe in here today?


So far. I think the kids are sleeping in or something.
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230. IKE
Quoting Michfan:
I wouldn't call RIP but its pretty damn close. Is it safe in here today?


Yes, because 93L is moving toward the BOC and will not threaten the gulf-coast. Maybe SE Texas will get a shower off of it.
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mich it should calm down nicly in here
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
456 i think it has maybe a 5 percent chance and thats being nice
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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