Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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Hope that's clearing up IKE,..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Pitchman Billy Mays has passed away this morning. Looks like everyone over 50 should get a check up.No more 2, or 3, or 4, for 1 specials.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 12:07 PM CDT on June 28, 2009
Mostly Cloudy
96.4 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
324. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Daughter just now getting over 4-5 day Viral Infection.
She went to Children Hospital 3 days ago for exam.


I'm just getting over staph infection....it isn't good...had an infection the size of a half-dollar, maybe bigger.

Sodium Chloride and antibiotics......

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
A good thing to remember when looking at satellite is to watch for strato-cu....They are typically in regions of cooler SST's and indicate a stable environment over the water....
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Very club music 456, heard a lot of that in late 90s / early naughties dancing.


Might have to rethink the combination of words there...
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Quoting tropicfreak:


It does look organized. It has a ton of time to develop into a TD. It's what, 1,000 miles away from the carribean (correct me if I'm wrong) It has a nice structure with plenty of time to develop.


It does have an excellent structure.
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Public Information Statement from NO/BR WFO today:

..Update on recent deep south heat wave...

The past 2 to 3 weeks have been hot...record breaking event and
the unusual warm conditions will continue through the end of June.
During this stretch of unusual heat we have hit the century mark
at numerous locations with some sites tying or breaking there June
all time record Max. In addition to the heat it has also been a
very dry month. Below are a few charts of some interesting climate
data for a few sites around the area.


# Of 100 highest Max
site degree days temp recorded

Mcb 5 102(twice)
btr 2 100(twice)
msy 1 101
gpt 2 102
asd 2 101
pql 0 99(three times)


daily records
broken or tied

Mcb 10 tied monthly record Max of 102 twice
on the 23rd and 25th
first set on the 14th in 1963
and again on the 29th in 1969
btr 3
msy 4 new monthly record Max of 101 on the 24th
old record of 100 set on the 30th in 1954


monthly avg
temperature
through June 27th

Mcb 81.2 this is currently the 4th warmest June on record
btr 82.6 this is currently the 7th warmest June on record
msy 82.9 this is currently the 5th warmest June on record
gpt 81.6
asd 81.4
pql 80.4


rainfall totals
through June 27th

Mcb 0.04" this is currently the driest June on record
btr 0.59" this is currently the 4th driest June on record
msy 0.92" this is currently the 2nd driest June on record
gpt 0.20"
asd 0.99"
pql 2.01"



As we move into July it will still be rather warm but we will be
closer to normal as normal temperatures continue to slightly rise
through the Summer. One Silver lining could be better rain chances
as we move into the first days of July and the Fourth of July
weekend....although most probably won't want rain then. Look for
another update to the pns tomorrow morning with hopefully some
more data.


*** Data used for New Orleans and Baton Rouge were from the msy
and btr ASOS sites specifically. When this data is compared with
the entire New Orleans and Baton Rouge area record which GOES
back further some of the records broken would not have been and
the rankings would actually be a few spots lower. For the
Mississippi coast gpt and pql do not go back for enough for an
official climate history but there is a more extensive record for
the Gulfport area that we will try to show for at least some
comparison of this recent heat wave and dry spell.
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Daughter just now getting over 4-5 day Viral Infection.
She went to Children Hospital 3 days ago for exam.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Well just got back form church and 93L still looks ill. I am now going to say that 93L will not develop anymore, but it was worth the wait due to favorable conditions in the GOM.
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315. IKE
Quoting atmoaggie:


And Fawcett had cancer...you guys will have to read news. Not saying what kind here, not enough maturity among some of us.


from... """"RainyEyes 11:37 AM CDT on June 28, 2009


What is up with the 50 year olds dying?""""..........


That's what I was referring to. Not Ed McMahon or Farrah.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Drakoen:
Nice wave off the Africa coast:


It does look organized. It has a ton of time to develop into a TD. It's what, 1,000 miles away from the carribean (correct me if I'm wrong) It has a nice structure with plenty of time to develop.
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Wind shear is around 5-10 knots off the African coast so the main problem will be SSTs and a stable airmass.
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Only possible "drugs" likely was Jackson, and if they were involved, I'd bet it was less lifestyle and more "give up on life".

Or u can take the conspiracy view and say someone did in the 50 year olds by faking heart attacks. . .

Regardless, they're all dead. The real RIPs should be going their way.
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Quoting Dar9895:

Perhaps the wave some models develop.


Development or not it has more low level turning than 93L ever had.
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Folks Die a Natural Death everyday and Night.
Plaque breaks Loose while asleep and one never awakens.

Had a Guy after Katrina from Wisconsin here. Took a Nap in the Shade after being in the water for Hours. Never awoke.
We all thought he was just resting..till he slumped over forward.
Sad,..but he was only 46.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Dar9895:

I wonder know which storm, Tropic Freak.


93L
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Quoting Patrap:
Drugs?..
Ed McMahon was 86..


And Fawcett had cancer...you guys will have to read news. Not saying what kind here, not enough maturity among some of us.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Nice wave off the Africa coast:

Perhaps the wave some models develop.
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303. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Drugs?..
Ed McMahon was 86..


No...she was talking about folks around 50 dying and I was giving her one reason.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Dar9895:

Even that, I do not see rapid intensification.
First of all, we are in late June and It will take at least 48 hours for becoming a cyclone.
Landfall as a Cat 5 it is out of the question but a strong tropical storm or weak cat 1 hurricane is is likely.


I was saying a situation similar to a couple of years ago could happen. Not saying it's going to be a Cat 5 but it could be a TS maybe a weak hurricane.
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Awesome tune

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299. IKE
Quoting tropicfreak:


with the exception of farrah Fawcett. She had cancer.


Exactly.


Billy Mays....

Tampa police say Billy Mays, the television pitchman known for his boisterous hawking of products such as Orange Glo and OxiClean, has died. He was 50.

Authorities say Mays was pronounced dead Sunday morning after being found by his wife at home. There were no signs of a break-in, and investigators do not suspect foul play. The coroner's office expects to have an autopsy done by Monday afternoon.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Dar9895:

Even that, I do not see rapid intensification.
First of all, we are in late June and It will take at least 48 hours for becoming a cyclone.
Landfall as a Cat 5 it is out of the question but a strong tropical storm or weak cat 1 hurricane is is likely.

I wonder know which storm, Tropic Freak.
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Quoting extreme236:
Hey Drak is whatever that is off the East Florida coast anything to watch, or should I not bother wasting my time?



Nothing to be concerned with.
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Drugs?..
Ed McMahon was 86..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
#292

Looks to be trending west too..
LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nothing more but dust in the wimd


Link Speaking of dust in the wind...and drugs, at that.
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Quoting IKE:


D R U G S...with most. Not sure on Billy Mays.


with the exception of farrah Fawcett. She had cancer.
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Nice wave off the Africa coast:
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Just wait and see, 93L has some surprises yet in store for us. Remember a couple of years ago there was a sickly disturbance and everyone thought it was going to die well guess what, it was a Td the next day or so and later became a Cat 5 hurricane. I wouldn't count out any development yet even though it looks to be dissapating.

Even that, I do not see rapid intensification.
First of all, we are in late June and It will take at least 48 hours for becoming a cyclone.
Landfall as a Cat 5 it is out of the question but a strong tropical storm or weak cat 1 hurricane is is likely.
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289. IKE
Quoting RainyEyes:


What is up with the 50 year olds dying? He was aboard that US Airways flight that the tires blew out. reminds me of the movie...where they were all suppose to die but cheated death then odd things happened. crazy. So in a week, Ed McMann, Billy Mays, Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson. Wow


D R U G S...with most. Not sure on Billy Mays.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Patrap:
People die everyday,..and to die is ones own Bed while asleep is a Blessing many say.

He had a good run Billy.

In the end,were all just passing thru.
Life is a waiting room,I just hope they dont call me too soon.
nothing more but dust in the wind
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
We had a lot of famous people pass away this week. Thats strange.
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Hey Drak is whatever that is off the East Florida coast anything to watch, or should I not bother wasting my time?
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July looks to be a more favorable month and probably towards the end of that month. Otherwise expect above-average wind shear as was forecasted by the CFS. Expect to continue to see above average wind shear in the Caribbean and the MDR around peak season. Favorable conditions in the Bahamas and along the eastern Seaboard.
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284. IKE
Quoting thelmores:


I agree Ike...... 93L looks like a Flock of Seagulls to me! LOL


Over 3 million views...lol....great song......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Does the disturbance off the coast of FL (east coast) have a chance of developing? It looks more organized than 93L.
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Yeah he always took care of himself, which is why his death is so damn odd.
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Quoting Weather456:


Those three were Cape Verde storms. It is possible we may see one in July but I meant atleast 1 in general.

I know, at least 1 CV storm is not impossible.
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Quoting Weather456:
Till this day, I go back at look the 30-35 knots winds reported by buoys as 90L approach the Gulf coast.


And the official sustained winds reported by those buoys (at least the NDBC-owned ones) is an 8-minute time average, not a 1-minute (NHC) or 2-minute (ASOS). 8-minute averaged 30 knots is a couple more by 1-minute standards.
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I think I'm a bit leary of first storms the last few days of July, first part of Aug. I always feel like they come with a fury, because they have all those undisturbed areas of TCHP regardless of where they track. Also, we've had some pretty bad strikes in the Bahamas from 1st storms of the season. (also 2nd and 7th, but whose counting...)
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278. DVG
First I'd like to thank y'all for learnin' me all this stuff. Levi...your last video resolved points of ponder yesterday for things I observed, but couldn't understand.

For fun, I'll hazzard a prognostication.

As the low to the west leaves, we'll see what we'll see. Looks to be between five and ten hours away for the answer.

Back to lurk ( and work ).
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That's the problem with tropical disturbance across the Yucatan, it will take many time to organize and become a tropical cyclone.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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