Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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1277. scott39
93L is not done yet. it still has a circulation. look for monday to be interesting.
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Although it won't be visible in the United States, a total solar eclipse will occur over Asia and the Pacific Ocean -- for 6 minutes and 39 seconds -- on July 22. Eclipse expert Fred Espenak, of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, offers details at http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse.html.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting weatherblog:
Ex-93L no longer on the Tropical Weather Outlook.

For the next few days, I think I'm going to shift my attention to the East Atlantic. I personally don't expect development but it at least deserves to be adknowledged.


Perhaps that wave will eventually sneak up on us and become convectively active close to home, as 93L did.

Any and all African waves bear watching, no matter the time of year, since, though they will likely not develop in the far eastern Atlantic in June or July, they can, and often do, develop into tropical cyclones close to home.
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Ex-93L no longer on the Tropical Weather Outlook.

For the next few days, I think I'm going to shift my attention to the East Atlantic. I personally don't expect development but it at least deserves to be adknowledged.
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Well, I also have to bug out. Got an early start tomorrow, and a late stop tonight isn't going to make it easier....

G'nite!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting BahaHurican:
How about another Twave through the area in a couple days? I think the one behind 93L's ride is supposed to go through the SGOM by midweek. . .


you never know.
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How about another Twave through the area in a couple days? I think the one behind 93L's ride is supposed to go through the SGOM by midweek. . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
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1269. Levi32
I think I'm out for the night. Goodnight all see you tomorrow.
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Quoting Levi32:


Well ex-93L IS the trough. Odds are against it developing but I always watch surface troughs for mischief in the GOM. If there is enough moisture we could get more thunderstorms popping tomorrow. I'm not completely writing it off yet.


LOL!! I am still learning - but this blog is definitely helping. Maybe a rebirth could happen? Who knows?
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1266. Levi32
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1265. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:


I agree. But, could there be more energy from the surface trough - not necessarily just from ex-93L?? I am just starting to see what Levi has been saying.

I was just looking at a WV loop of the GOMEX and it looked highly favorable to me. Very little dry air, low shear, and the ULL has finally moved to the West. Also, there is NHC discussion of an upper level cyclone moving into the area. Isn't this enough to possibly favor another system in the GOMEX???

Just a thought to ponder...to make the blog a little more interesting :)


Well ex-93L IS the trough. Odds are against it developing but I always watch surface troughs for mischief in the GOM. If there is enough moisture we could get more thunderstorms popping tomorrow. I'm not completely writing it off yet.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Tennis,

I'm really not sure about the current conditions, although since they started reporting on 93L they said it would be in a better position to develop after it cleared the Yucatan.

Even being in a better environment, if there isn't enough energy left in the system, it can't spin up.



I agree. But, could there be more energy from the surface trough - not necessarily just from ex-93L?? I am just starting to see what Levi has been saying.

I was just looking at a WV loop of the GOMEX and it looked highly favorable to me. Very little dry air, low shear, and the ULL has finally moved to the West. Also, there is NHC discussion of an upper level cyclone moving into the area. Isn't this enough to possibly favor another system in the GOMEX???

Just a thought to ponder...to make the blog a little more interesting :)
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1263. Levi32
Quoting zoomiami:
Levi - could you please make sure that if its going to do something, it goes to Texas and rain on them. We've had plenty of rain, and I'm too busy to deal with anything else right now, lol.


I'll do my best lol.
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1262. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:
I can even use the GOES Imagery now :)


Lol I'm about to blow your new imagery out of the water in a few minutes ;)
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Hi Tennis,

I'm really not sure about the current conditions, although since they started reporting on 93L they said it would be in a better position to develop after it cleared the Yucatan.

Even being in a better environment, if there isn't enough energy left in the system, it can't spin up.

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MMMM interesting. Look at the WGOMEX, in 144hrs
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Quoting zoomiami:
Tennis:

very basically, low shear, warm waters, and circulation at the surface, not just in the mid levels.


Interesting. So, the conditions that were squashing and shearing ex-93L are now gone? Am I correct?
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Levi - could you please make sure that if its going to do something, it goes to Texas and rain on them. We've had plenty of rain, and I'm too busy to deal with anything else right now, lol.
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I can even use the GOES Imagery now :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Interesting blog lately - I don't know why I feel like I'm watching a middle school class.....
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AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Tennis:

very basically, low shear, warm waters, and circulation at the surface, not just in the mid levels.
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1253. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Any one still on the blog?

I have a hypothetical question. If a system was just beginning in the GOMEX right now, what would the environmental conditions be like for that system??


Becoming favorable with an upper anticyclone over top during the next 48 hours, then increasing shear by 72 hours as the upper trough pushes down from the north. I'm still keeping a close eye on ex-93L. Surface troughs in the GOM should always be watched.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Orca:

Lol - new cloud generators? If you could package that and send them out, you could make a fortune!



ROFLMAO, had to find new places to get clouds.. the google ones are FUBAR
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Orca:

Lol - new cloud generators? If you could package that and send them out, you could make a fortune!

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Any one still on the blog?

I have a hypothetical question. If a system was just beginning in the GOMEX right now, what would the environmental conditions be like for that system??
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OK, I found some new cloud generators
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting gordydunnot:
As Doc Holiday would say 93l was just a little to hi strung.Also goodnight one and all.


That comment made me chuckle!

I'm off to get some rest! Did alot of ground work with Portlight.org today and it has tired me out!

My white miniature schnauzer, Lexi...bids a fond adieu as well! :)
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1247. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
later all catchin some zzzzz see ya in am
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As Doc Holiday would say 93l was just a little to hi strung.Also goodnight one and all.
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1245. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


dead invest
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1244. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
later chicklet iam off myself in 5 min or so
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Yep you are right oz the dam storms can pretty much destroy a city ie. Andrew. tens of thousands left dade never to return. I new some people who got emotionally chucked up years latter if they were anywhere close to the eye. I was on opposite side of dade cat 2 maybe.
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1242. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
thats better orca
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'nite all...fun listenen' to ya.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11358


Hmm this is different..and the clouds are finally right
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting gordydunnot:
Cycloneoz your idea sounds a little to tough for me but seriously good luck with what ever you do. I always go to the opposite side of my house to watch a storm, a little dangerous but not to bad. Its hard to believe what you see and here sometimes. But the after effects of the storm literally bl..


I hear ya...the aftermath really sucks. That's why the good folks at Portlight.org need as much support as possible.

The other aid agencies are "cut and run" outfits. They're gone in two weeks. Portlight.org volunteers and supports stay on sight for as long as possible providing relief to as many as possible.

We should all be thankful that such people regularly contribute to this blog! :) They are special special individuals!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


this is the picture i see

Prettty darned droopy if you ask me....
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11358
Quoting Levi32:


Not much.....El Nino can't really change in 3 days. Expecting a weak event through the early winter.




i take it
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1235. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:
i no whats talk about El Nino whats new on that???


Not much.....El Nino can't really change in 3 days. Expecting a weak event through the early winter.
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I sent you an e-mail, P-man! :)

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Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11358
i no whats talk about El Nino whats new on that???
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I say all eyes east towards Africa.
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Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Cycloneoz your idea sounds a little to tough for me but seriously good luck with what ever you do. I always go to the opposite side of my house to watch a storm, a little dangerous but not to bad. Its hard to believe what you see and here sometimes. But the after effects of the storm literally bl..
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1227. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


this is the picture i see
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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