Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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Quoting hahaguy:


I really like the music that Stephen´╗┐ Arnold does for TWC . Especially the two versions of the storm alert music.


They also makes it for Fox and HLN.

here's some of thier music
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
140 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE W OF AREA AROUND SUNSET TODAY. AS THE WAVE
INTERACTED YESTERDAY WITH A CUT OFF CYCLONE OVER THE SW GULF AND
A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF...THE WAVE
SEPARATED LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMNANTS OF THIS TROUGH IS ORIENTATED NE
TO SW OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS AND EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH MON NIGHT. THIS LOW TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES THE
ATLC RIDGE OVER THE SE GULF WATERS FROM A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE NW WATERS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 80W WILL
OVERRUN THE REMNANTS OF THIS TROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE
WAVE CONTINUING W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AND WED. BY
THU AN E TO W RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM SW FL TO THE MS DELTA WITH
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

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Quoting hurricane2009:
Just saw a great loop of Africa, that wave really does have some nice turning to it


Which one? The navy loop isn't coming up for me, website having a problem.
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Quoting Levi32:
I would not write 93L off yet. Stick with it. Never ignore a surface trough in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane season.


Thank you
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Here a Blog from Hurricane Hunter LRandyB from 30 January this year.

North to Alaska

It's that time of year! Every year in the Jan-Feb time frame the Hurricane Hunters head to the Pacific to fly winter storms between Alaska and Hawaii. We call it the Winter Storm Deployment. We alternate every year with NOAA between Elmendorf AFB in Anchorage, AK and Hickam AFB in Honolulu, Hawaii. On the even years we are in Hawaii and on the odd years we are in Alaska. Well this being an odd year, we're in Alaska. Weather in the Anchorage area has been snowy all this week but it's expected to stop snowing today and simply get cold. Of course, cold in Alaska is a relative term. Forecasted lows starting Sunday when I get there through the week are expected to be near zero with highs in the teens. I've been there when it's been much colder than that but that's cold enough for me!


A good read too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Billy wasn't related to Willie Mays, was he. I heard that Willie had quite a few siblings. His father had lots of children, but only one willy.
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rofl I love how everyone changed theirs after mine. I even waited a couple minutes to see if someone else had it.

Being in the right place at the right time is cool, I was just bringing up the NHC site and it ended up there.
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135 PM JUN 28
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Quoting Weather456:


I love his music, I have almost all his albums. They are very relaxing and uplifting: The Rippingtons and Brian Hughes is also good.

Listen this one:



I really like the music that Stephen´╗┐ Arnold does for TWC . Especially the two versions of the storm alert music.
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could be a new low forming about 250 miles SW of ft myers area!!!
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Quoting Patrap:
Dont know about the WPAC,but Randy did do some Winter Storm Missions up in Alaska this pass winter.


Isn't that the NOAA recon planes? I don't think the USAF guys are involved in that.
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Dont know about the WPAC,but Randy did do some Winter Storm Missions up in Alaska this pass winter.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
411. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I would not write 93L off yet. Stick with it. Never ignore a surface trough in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane season.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Yeah, no shock here.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
weather456, you may not be aware, but Ryan Farish provides about half of The Weather Channel's background music. That music you put up has been too.


I love his music, I have almost all his albums. They are very relaxing and uplifting: The Rippingtons and Brian Hughes is also good.

Listen this one:

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Quoting Patrap:
Ask LRandyB the Blogger,hes a HH from Biloxi,maybe he can answer that SSIG.

His blog is in the Featured section.

Tropical Weather Discussion
Didn't Randy do a stint in the WPAC last summer? Never did get round to seeing how that went. Maybe I will check out his blog on my next free time.
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390 I was mostly speaking of the convection between Yucatan and Cuba. Relax
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Quoting Drakoen:
Updated Sat with SSTs overlay showing SSTs around 83F


According to 456's blog aren't most Global models indicating a wave to develop?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
401. IKE
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
He lived less than a mile away from me.


Think he was on Larry King recently. Successful person. Sorry to read it.
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Quoting IKE:


His wife found him. Could have been a heart attack. Autopsy will shed some light.
He lived less than a mile away from me.
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399. IKE
12Z GFDL
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
On the Beach in Biloxi one can watch the HH's come and go every day as they do training missions..they almost Low enough near Hwy 90 to Wave at the crews.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Current Conditions
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Check with any insurance company - two strikes
Strike one - male
Strike two - over 50

everyone else is more insurable.

Those of us who are male and over 50, good luck.
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394. IKE
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Is 93L still up on the Navy site?


Yes.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
So easy a Caveman could of Drawn it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Is 93L still up on the Navy site?
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Quoting 954FtLCane:
Recon=practice if its true


Recon typically flies the upper gulf every day, so its not practice to be tasked to a storm.

They are scheduled for tomorrow afternoon, but as always can be cancelled like they did for today.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Quoting gordydunnot:
llc on 93l looks to be naked of clouds and moving on to the wsw. I see as mj would say give it one more chance girl, another mlc forming to the east.

please show me this
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389. IKE
Quoting Patrap:


Well...that narrows it down...anywhere in the GOM...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
388. IKE
Jumper cables needed...lol.....pitiful looking...

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Relax


Atlantica - Ryan Farish
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Quoting Patrap:
No flights today..cancelled

3. NOTE: THE MISSIONS TASKED FOR 28/18 AND 29/06Z
WERE CANX BY NHC AT 28/1200Z. -- ADDED --


Sweet, I read that right.

That being said keep watching it (though I'm not going to pull any MJ quotes... Though I'm a girl and giving it another chance lol), partially because it's the only thing out there really to watch at the moment.
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384. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


Yeah and CNN is just now talking about it as "Breaking News". LOL


I looked at their website an hour ago and nothing on it.....

LATE!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good morning (afternoon) all.

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday June 28th
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382. IKE
Quoting hahaguy:


That's ridiculous.


Physician saw me about 10 minutes total. Two 5 minute visits.


Part of 93L over the Yucatan looks like it's spinning down and out.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:


His wife found him. Could have been a heart attack. Autopsy will shed some light.


Yeah and CNN is just now talking about it as "Breaking News". LOL
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
No HH flight today or tomorrow ..canceled

3. NOTE: THE MISSIONS TASKED FOR 28/18 AND 29/06Z
WERE CANX BY NHC AT 28/1200Z. -- ADDED --
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Weather456:


Why would he, and if he does, pretty much of us will continue or start our own blogs.


if I could not post comments no big deal I'd still read the blog and use WU mail if I had questions. Some blogger's don't even alow comments after their blog.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
Wow south Forida is in the middle of all this mess!Rain to the south, east, and west.
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377. IKE
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Sorry this is off topic but this month cannot get any worse. Billy Mays just died this morning in his Tampa Bay home.Coincidence he died same age as MJ?


His wife found him. Could have been a heart attack. Autopsy will shed some light.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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