Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Look at the 72 hr

also do you see that trough nearing east carib any thought on development
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U were "Vary" close though JF..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452


Slim looking, but I wouldn't totally write off 93L just yet. Good vorticity still, divergence improving slightly, some lower level west wind barbs visible (not surface level), shear relaxing.
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93L 1800 UTC Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Quoting hurricane2009:


drift northward yes, but you see the front, would bring it back to the east more after that


Look at the 72 hr
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11307
those stupid horns are drving me crazy ... come on usa ... brazil is gettng frustrated
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Nice one keeper them song for blog.


been a maiden fan for years

up the irons
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55669
516. JRRP
The gfs 12z do not develop the wave in CATL
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Nice one keeper theme song for blog.
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Nice one keeper theme song for blog.
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From the NHC:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG
78W AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PORTION OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ AXIS
OVER COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-84W.



It's an interesting little blob just emerging into the Caribbean from the Panama/Colombia border area. Compact, circular little system, though steering down there looks as if it'll go along the coast, rather than out into the sea.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


I think the main CoCirc is still on shore. just below that.

I think it still on shore yes but
I'm thinking more south about 19.8n 87.9w
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
I think prolly so. 93L looks to be heading to central Texas. At least the wave, Surprised Melbourne is thinking fla.

If it develops in the GOM I was thinking Tx/La border.


TAFB of their 48 and 72 hour surface maps tend to agree with you.

48 hr
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11307
do yall think any of 93L's convection will reach New Orleans?
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I'm out for a while, later all.
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From the 2 p.m. Discussion:

LOW-LEVEL SELY CONVERGENT WINDS SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 81W-89W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CONUS
EXTENDS SWD ALONG 89W TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
over and out... go US!

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
KOTG what's your avatar from?
eddy iron maiden brave new world

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55669
Quoting hurricane2009:


Makes sense, but I think we should keep an eye on the EATL, I dont care about climatology and if you think about it, even with climatology the CATL can see formation in early July. This wave moving off Africa will be in the CATL by July 1st. So its not off the wall to think development is possible.


I agree....I had put that under the category of "besides the obvious" lol....I guess some people wouldn't. I'm watching that area as well.
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If I had to pick an area to watch for trouble besides the obvious it would be off the Carolinas in 6-10 days. The sub-tropical ridge over Texas is going through cycles of oscillating west and east. It's currently going west which is why the upper trough coming in will be digging so far west over the SE states.

Later this week the ridge is forecasted to start pushing east again for a little while, forcing the trough back near the eastern seaboard. The long-wave upper pattern over North America has been becoming more zonal (flatter) and that trend is expected to continue into next week. This sets up a pattern where fronts associated with low pressure systems off the east US coast like to hang back near the Carolinas and be slow to drag out. Mischief between the SW side of the upper trough and the upper ridge to the west can occur in this situation with cyclogenesis at the tail-end of those fronts.

Just brainstorming here lol.
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493. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just got a email from Acemmett telling me to tell ya all that hes been banned for 24 hrs

i wonder why


LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
some nice strong convection over e pac near cen amer.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55669
Also have lived in s.fl. my whole life I have never seen the wind blow from the west and nw like it has the last wk. or two. Its like we had a stalled front draped across the state the last month. Anything `can pretty much develop at any time along such boundaries.So wouldnt be suprised if something developed either side or s. of fl.
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Hi Tampa,
You can have a concussion, cerebral bleed and not know it's happening for days even weeks. He shudda got chk'd out.
I was chainsawing a tree limb and the thing came down on my head. I had a CT scan. That's how I know about that stuff... too darned bad!
Back to the weather...there's a lotta wet stuff out there near the Fla Straits. The plot thickens?
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The XtremeTeam at XtremeHurricanes.com has a solid page of Current Tropical Imagery and Maps for your use!
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just got a email from Acemmett telling me to tell ya all that hes been banned for 24 hrs

i wonder why

should behave yourself maybe you would not of been banned
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55669
Guess the Melbourne Folks think 93L will still bring moisture to FL

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
215 PM EDT sun Jun 28 2009


Discussion...
..above normal rain chances persist through much of this week...


Current weather picture...radars detecting scattered showers moving
east at 15 to 20 miles per hour.


Tonight/Monday...warm temperatures aloft...-4c to -6c at 500mb will
make it rather difficult for strong storms to form the remainder
of today/tonight and Monday. Lightning detection sensors
indicating very few...lightning strikes. Synoptic picture similar
to Saturday with a surface trough lying across Alabama/Georgia and the
surface ridge axis over Cuba/Florida Strait that was resulting a
deep layer southwest flow. With precipitable water values between
1.5 and 2.0 inches...rain chances will remain above their climatology
values Monday afternoon. High temperatures a couple of degrees
above their climatology around 90/lower 90s.


Rest of week...axis of subtropical ridge projected to remain over
South Florida with perhaps a slow northward drift toward central
Florida Fri-Sat. Steering flow aloft is forecast to remain west
to southwest through this time with showers & storms favoring the
central and eastern peninsula each day. Guidance indicating
seasonally higher than normal rain chances through the remainder of
the week above precipitation chances each day of the extended
across east central Florida. High temperatures will remain
persistent with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows will
remain elevated a few degrees above climatology and in the 70s.


Diffuse tropical wave entering the southern Gulf will act to spread
moisture north into the state through midweek. Any further development
is expected to be slow at best.

Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
Quoting Chicklit:
Okay, since you're talking Billy Mays, this may shed some light on subject:
Tampa area media outlets reported that Mays was a passenger on a U.S. Airways flight that made a rough landing on Saturday afternoon at Tampa International Airport, apparently blowing its front tires in an incident that left debris on the runway.

Tampa Bay's Fox television affiliate interviewed Mays after the incident.

"All of a sudden as we hit you know it was just the hardest hit, all the things from the ceiling started dropping," MyFox Tampa Bay quoted him as saying. "It hit me on the head, but I got a hard head."

U.S. Airways officials said Sunday they could not immediately confirm that Mays was a passenger.

Born William Mays in McKees Rocks, Pa., on July 20, 1958, Mays developed his style demonstrating knives, mops and other "as seen on TV" gadgets on Atlantic City's boardwalk...

CNN reports that he hasn't 'felt good' since the flight....
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Looking at western visible if there is a spin its in the se Bahamas mon.
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93L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
Wouldn't it be not funny if the Florida Blob and the Cuban Blob reached out and touched one another?
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Hiya {{Pat}}!

It did, didn't blow when they thought. There was a crew already there for rotation and they had to get them back down to the states before they were stuck there.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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