Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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Ike, love the avitor, it is now my desktop background...LOL
Wow a pretty big statement by Carver. I know wind sheer is expected to increase, but much ado about nothing??
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No Low was seen on the Surface Analysis earlier,..but this feature is only a few Hours old..
The Mulit Spectral Platform analyzed a 1008.7 Low near the NW Yucatan though.
1800UTC
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting Patrap:
The Muliti Platform Mid Level Vortex around 700mb height,which was over land,may be surrendering to this new ,surface Low Ike.

Dunno.

Im just looking closely at it the last Hour.

Pat is there a surface low associated with the area you are looking at? I'm not seeing a low indicated on the surface features map. Thanks!
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Quoting Bailey1777:
Hey Pat on that nexrad screen what is that spin it shows at about 20N - 91W?

maybe a very weak UUL you can see it a little on the visible 93l floater
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New Frame in the NexSat Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
The Muliti Platform Mid Level Vortex around 700mb height,which was over land,may be surrendering to this new ,surface Low Ike.

Dunno.

Im just looking closely at it the last Hour.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Short Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Historically,..and as I used Cindy 2005 as an example,things seems to jell in that area with diffuse systems. We may,..and I double stress,..MAY..be seeing that beginning this afternoon.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
568. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Ike..look closely at the Curvature forming about 75 north of the Yuc here in the NexSat viz..tell me what you see.

NexSat


Is that the center?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Maybe..and I STRESS ,..Maybe, a surface reflection starting about there.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Hey Pat on that nexrad screen what is that spin it shows at about 20N - 91W?
The Front is supposed to stall Tuesday on a line from about Houston to Austin or SA.
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Nothing like a cursed sports comment to flavor a Weather Blog.
,..LOL

That will get ya a 24 hour timeout stud.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
The RAAMB site was developed and first used starting in 2007 and is a Great tool
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
USA USA USA USA!!! They're up 2-0 at halftime!! I really hope they win!!
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Rotation has to continue to work down towards the surface and it'll have to get back over the open water fairly soon; otherwise it's just a short window of time for further organization as shear will eventually pick back up. This one's gonna be a timing thing at best.
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RAAMB,..its on the WU-Tropical Page,2nd one under "Real-time Tropical Imagery"

93L 1800 UTC Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting tarpontexas:
In some respects the COC looks better over land than it did in the Carib. Despite that the odds for development appear small.

I made such a suggestion yesterday, that it could actually find a bit more stability over land and still pull moisture from all three sides of the peninsula. But, I was also expecting it to cross a bit more north. Traversing westwardly across the broad area of the peninsula could rob it of it's energy if it doesn't get back over open water fairly soon.
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


Invest 93L

Invest 93L
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Okay, I haven't paid attention the last couple of days, but has 93L always been associated with a surface trough or is it just now going to interact with the one that is just N of the Yucatan?
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Ike..look closely at the Curvature forming about 75 north of the Yuc here in the NexSat viz..tell me what you see.

NexSat
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
93L looks like it's COC got more defined as it went onshore... thats weird... If this thing gets out over the gulf by tonight, there's a decent chance of it becoming a TD and probably a TS by Tuesday... by then it will be getting close to the shore of Texas.

My gut on this one: It's gonna head WNW and maybe even Westward through tommorrow, then hook off to the N then NE barely missing Louisiana and head towards Pensacola/Appalachicola area... Just my gut on this one... don't stone me please... LOL
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ummmmmmmmmm,...close to Middle Carolina or one of the Other TWO ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
547. IKE
12Z ECMWF shows a system off of the Carolina's in 10 days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
In some respects the COC looks better over land than it did in the Carib. Despite that the odds for development appear small.
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What Inning are we in..?

LOL

Go TEAM
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
The US is 2 up against Brasil.
Way to GO guys !!
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AOI
8N/88W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141

AOI/INV/93L
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
93L 1800 UTC Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 2:09 PM CDT on June 28, 2009
Mostly Cloudy
97.0 F

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1000 am CDT sun Jun 28 2009


Discussion...the heat is on...again and again and again. With
much less coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms and rain expected today over the South
Shore and coastal parishes we have decided to expand the heat advection
south to include all of the County Warning Area. Morning lows were quite warm this
morning and with most likely only isolated areas seeing relief from
afternoon convection it should not be too hard to see afternoon heat
indicies hover around the 105 mark. In addition to that we are
looking at the possibility of having to extend the heat advection into
tomorrow. A lot will depend on the strength and speed of our front
tomorrow morning. Right out ahead of the front it could get quite
miserable with moisture pooling up and additional warming from
compressional heating. As for the rest of the forecast so far so good.
Hrly temperatures are just about on track. I will leave the 10% isolated
wording in for the coastal counties/parishes and the South Shore
but I would not be surprised to not see much convection today. Npw
has already been sent for the heat advection and zones and grids will be
out shortly. /Cab/
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Between 22 and 23n and 88 and 89w and new surface swirl is developing.

I think this vorticity is associated with the trough positioned from the Yucatan NW to about 26N 87W and not with the invest itself.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

also do you see that trough nearing east carib any thought on development


Doesn't look to promising if they have classified it as a trough instead of a wave.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11346
93L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
My son said they tried to ban the horns but it was to big apart s. African culture. Go figure I would rather have the Arab women and there sound. USA just scored again
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Holy Sh
Goal #2
America up 2-0 on Brazil.

Sorry for non-weather news, but wow.
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NexSat GOM and Yucatan VIZ Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
GOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLL
Member Since: May 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
there are some convection bursts happening on the west side.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Look at the 72 hr

also do you see that trough nearing east carib any thought on development
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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