Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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677. SomeRandomTexan
9:39 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Hello there Storm and levi... good to see you on!
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
676. Levi32
9:39 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Good afternoon (or evening over there whatever).

I might be a little slow because I'm using a computer that was made in like the 80s lol. It can't handle more than 3 tabs open at a time and everything I click on takes 10 minutes to respond lol.

I've been monitoring what Reed just mentioned since early this morning. The main circulation is dissipating and heading off towards the WSW, and a new low-level spin to the east of it has been trying to become dominant all day today near 22N 88W. This is right where the 850mb vort max is, although vorticity has been weakening in the last several hours.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26659
674. atmoaggie
9:38 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Check out the perfect downbursts on the radar loop north of NOLA. Cool. Probably not severe...well, maybe that bigger one.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
672. CybrTeddy
9:37 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
Here's where I'm looking at..

Photobucket

Heck, it might just be another MLC lol :P


I noticed that, 93L might be reforming a new COC.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
671. reedzone
9:36 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Thats where its marked..click fronts you'll see 1011 mb Link


No, thats the naked swirly low to the west of where I'm looking at, look at the pic closely where I circled, that 1011 mb low should dissipate soon. I am looking closer to the convection around the same longitude.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
670. SomeRandomTexan
9:33 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Reedzone---
I'm looking at what you are pointing out... i do see the convection but do you think this is just normal thunderstorms due to daytime heating induced from the land?
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
669. TampaFLUSA
9:32 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
Here's where I'm looking at..

Photobucket

Thats where its marked..click fronts you'll see 1011 mb Link
Member Since: June 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657
668. errantlythought
9:32 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
I'm seeing a circulation where convection is starting to pop around near 88W and 22.5N

Anybody else seeing this? I can see how a low forms there later and convection continues to burst around it. Wind shear in that specific area is around 5-10 knots, and if it heads north, it stays favorable. Maybe 93L might just surprise us, which is why recon has NOT been canceled for tomorrow.


I rarely post, but I wanted to make a note that I have been watching this particular spot for about 3 hours now on sat images, starting with shortwave IR2 I noticed the beginnings of a swirl in that area, now on visuals, so I would venture to say yes, in my very amateur opinion.
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
667. reedzone
9:30 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Here's where I'm looking at..

Photobucket

Heck, it might just be another MLC lol :P
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
666. druseljic
9:26 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
I'm seeing a circulation where convection is starting to pop around near 88W and 22.5N

Anybody else seeing this? I can see how a low forms there later and convection continues to burst around it. Wind shear in that specific area is around 5-10 knots, and if it heads north, it stays favorable. Maybe 93L might just surprise us, which is why recon has NOT been canceled for tomorrow.


There is definitely convection there if nothing else...watching to see if it continues...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
665. reedzone
9:25 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
I'm seeing a circulation where convection is starting to pop around near 88W and 22.5N

Anybody else seeing this? I can see how a low forms there later and convection continues to burst around it. Wind shear in that specific area is around 5-10 knots, and if it heads north, it stays favorable. Maybe 93L might just surprise us, which is why recon has NOT been canceled for tomorrow.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
664. charlottefl
9:22 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Lowest pressure I've found is 1009 MB just south of Progreso, Mexico.

Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
663. druseljic
9:21 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We need a new Oxy-Clean / Mighty Puty guy!
Billy Mays is dead in Tampa.


So many this icons this week...

Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
662. CybrTeddy
9:13 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
We need a new Oxy-Clean / Mighty Puty guy!
Billy Mays is dead in Tampa.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
661. druseljic
9:13 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
The low that has been marked on 93L's wave axis is forecast to dissipate by the NHC.


Do you still think the panhandle may recieve some rain from the remnants? We really need it...

Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
660. Drakoen
9:11 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
The low that has been marked on 93L's wave axis is forecast to dissipate by the NHC.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
659. Seastep
9:08 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Potential Harm To My Family. ;)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
658. druseljic
9:07 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting Seastep:
That is highest PHTMF index, imo.



PHTMF???
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
657. Seastep
9:04 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Interesting stuff.

Very, very interesting year to me. Everything so far this season have been associated with a large, complex areas of disturbed weather.

Just don't recall that being the case in the past.

Makes for fun sat watching.

Looks like a triangle w/ the L, the yucatan (the main area of 93L moving due W, freakishly so) and about 23/87.

I, personally, love this from a sat watching perspective.

I'm watching the 23/87 area for development, atm.

That is highest PHTMF index, imo.

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
656. Jedkins01
9:03 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
some comments on the blog post.

Im surprised Rob Carver pays any attention to sattelite rainfall rates, im not making an arguement that the system has any more chance of developing then he is saying, in fact in that way I agree.

Im pointing out that sattelite rainfall rates are the most ridiculously inaccurate tool you could possible use to find rainfall intensity.

When it is used to messure hurricanes, often you'll see values of 1 to maybe 2 inches per hour.

However actual rain rates anywhere from 3 to 6 inches an hour, and even higher in the core is very common with tropical cyclones, I remember using the sattelite rainfall rate product before for bigtime afternoon storms here that have dumped 2 to 4 inches of rain within 1 hour here, that the microwave said rainfall rate was 0.50 an hour... lol talk about about bs.

I just think, they should stop trying to get rainfall intensity by sattelite, its highly inaccurate and is quite useless.

sattelite is good for cloud top temperature analyisis in detirmining convective intensity, but not rainfall rate whatsoever/
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7605
655. weatherblog
8:58 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting hurricane2009:


That isnt saying much, July starts in 3 days lol


LOL
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
654. Patrap
8:52 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Click the FRONTS box to see the 1011mb Low and the Wave Axis
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
651. cg2916
8:51 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting Weatherkid27:
93L looking pretty bad right now.

I'm not going to give up on this one just yet... I'll give it 36 hours to crank up, after that POOF!

I'm not sure it has enough time to reorganize.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
The Wave emerging Africa looks like a keeper as convection is comming back.

Link
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Quoting ackee:
DONT think we see our frist storm until july


got spell check? LMAO
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93L is thankfully not looking too dangerous right now but I do hope it bring some much needed rain to the panhandle. Just rain, not wish****ing anything more than a few cooling showers to help the garden, lol! ;-)
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
93L looking pretty bad right now.

I'm not going to give up on this one just yet... I'll give it 36 hours to crank up, after that POOF!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
643. ackee
DONT think we see our frist storm until july
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm in shock about Billy Mays! I hear it may be linked to a rough landing he had on a US Airways flight that landed in Tampa.
On a positive note 93 is looking really sloppy and may spare my friends in SoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The only chances of development is if it stays in the eastern GOM. So, basically if it doesn't develop in the next 48 hours or so it will probably go in the western GOM (where development is highly unlikely and it should dissipate).

If it does develop, a track towards the west coast of Florida is likely.

I'd say chances of development are <20%. I may lower it soon if no signs of development occur.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
638. JFLORIDA 3:32 PM CDT on June 28, 2009...
I have enjoyed watching this one...the blog has been wild indeed...Here is to hoping that some sort of rain comes this way from all this...
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2492
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
I'm new to posting on this site, errantly. I must say thee's more weather blogs out there than bacardis got rum. even here, there's chickens, make believe, gardening, astronomy. Some mighty fine bloggers who I don't see posting in Jeff MAster's blog.

Most of the other blogs here are good people, politics aside. It takes forever and a day to figure out all these people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So, when is 93L supposed to hit the GOM???
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2492
Quoting centex:
Just make sure if you take this track you have some good locations within wire range to place all the sensors.

They have wireless...but wired worked better for me imo, they it seemed to update more often.
Member Since: June 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657
RIP Billy Mays. Another one gone :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
That Naked swirl is a Mid level feature embedded in the FLow..the CoC im seeing is east of that petrol


The naked swirl looks like it was ejected from the system while a new swirl is trying to form closer to the convection. I still wouldn't be suprised to see a td or ts sometime this week in the gulf. Where it goes is up in the air considering the northeast part of the wave wants to go northeast while the southwest part of the wave wants to go west.
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Look here they have reasonable priced stations..Link
Just make sure if you take this track you have some good locations within wire range to place all the sensors.
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Quoting Vortex1094:
I'll consider it thanks my budget isnt to tight

Look here they have reasonable priced stations..Link
Even a Davis at $202 Link
Member Since: June 21, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657
Quoting hurricane2009:
There are several Severe Weather watches out now for the SE US


Wow there are.. I live in central GA and we just
had a bad storm last week 60 mph winds.. A guy
in our neighborhood lost a really nice gold mustang, dunno what year not good with cars lol, but a tree squashed it big time. they have
it in the front prob waiting for the insurance,
and so they put a tarp on top of it to try and
hide it from bypassers, but the tarp wasn't big enough LOL :(
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Booooooo BBBRRAAAZIIL
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What does he mean, other blogs?

suddenly a wild lurker appears
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
spell check? LOL Tampa, no but that modify works good as an afterthought.

hurrican2009, it's a big bowl, I can add myself to the nuts. Good bartender here, the nut bowl stays full no matter what.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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