Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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AOI/INV/93L


CEN AMER FLOATER

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Latest NexSat GOM and Yucatan Viz LOOP
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
The next Posting of the Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis will occur a lil after 00 UTC

93L 1800 UTC Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841




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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


Invest 93L

Invest 93L
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Hey KOTG,that big red L not far from the Obs we saw earlier on NexSat views..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Thats not where we're looking at, it's a few more coordinates to the east of there, that current low should be dissipating soon.
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Quoting Patrap:
atmo,..you getting any of this Bad Boy yet?

That Outflow boundary is gonna slam into some 95Plus Temps on the S Shore.




Yep. Coming with a lot of lightning, too. Rigorous updrafts. I am under that part the just grew up along the N/S section of US 190.

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atmo,..you getting any of this Bad Boy yet?

That Outflow boundary is gonna slam into some 95Plus Temps on the S Shore.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
GMZ080-290330-
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH FRI...N OF 27N W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
S OF 27N SE TO S WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 FT.

$$
GMZ082-290330-
SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...E OF 93W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT SHIFT
SE TUE THROUGH FRI. SEAS 3 FT. W OF 93W SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS TUE THROUGH THU.

$$
GMZ084-290330-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...N OF 25N S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. S OF 25N SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SCATTERED
TSTMS S OF 25N THROUGH TUE.

$$
GMZ086-290330-
E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 27N.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N OF 27N SW TO W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4
FT. S OF 27N S TO SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N OF 25N SW TO W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
S OF 25N SE TO S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES




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I wouldn't write 93L off just yet, I have seen some systems look alot worse than 93L and go on to become quite strong systems.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting reedzone:


It still has some potential, again which is why recon is still scheduled for tomorrow. The NHC is doing the smart thing and wait to see if anything happens tonight which is always a possibility in my books. Felix was RIPED on here and guess what, it formed. Expect the unexpected.


exactly! just when u turn ur back on these things is usually when they come around... It cracks me up how quickly people write things off.
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000
FZNT24 KNHC 282126
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-290330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH MEANDER OVER CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH
MON NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE MOVE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE MON
NIGHT MERGING WITH TROUGH AND CONTINUING W ACROSS BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$
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Quoting btwntx08:

thats were am located lol


And you guys seriously could use the rain...might get it anyway.
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Current NexSat GOM and Yucatan LOOP
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Nothing forms for MANY when the action passes their respective Locations..LOL

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Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Check the Box marked "FRONTS" to see the wave axis and 1011mb Low
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
702. 7544
looks like so fla is getting it from all directions and will stay wet for while
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Quoting btwntx08:

and what happens if it were to form......what happens then? huh


Maybe S. Texas or N Mex.

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Quoting Drakoen:
Nothing is going to form.


It still has some potential, again which is why recon is still scheduled for tomorrow. The NHC is doing the smart thing and wait to see if anything happens tonight which is always a possibility in my books. Felix was RIPED on here and guess what, it formed. Expect the unexpected.
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You might all be looking in the wrong place. I posted a couple of hours ago about an interesting system coming out of northern Colombia. It's small, but it's compact and circular and just recently it's gotten itself something resembling an eye. This 'eye' might just be a random fluctuation, but I noticed it a few hours ago and it's still there.Link
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Well I was very grateful for the rain 93L brought to The Caymans, we needed it ever so bad. I sure hope this season will be one without destruction & lost of life.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
693. beell
Pretty good description of what is going on with 93L. We might be watching something more if this separation or fracture would have occured while still in the Caribb.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009


GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER ERN MEXICO NEAR 22N101W.
THIS UPPER LOW IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CONUS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE IN CONFLUENT ELY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN GULF
RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER N OF 27N AND W OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM 25N88W TO 20N92W. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH IS A LOW-LEVEL FEATURE THAT FRACTURED FROM THE
NRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 96W IN THE E
PACIFIC
REGION. LOW-LEVEL SELY CONVERGENT WINDS SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
THE ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
81W-89W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CONUS
EXTENDS SWD ALONG 89W TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS
ALSO ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
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Nothing is going to form.
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The Rainbow IR is starting to impress me with that circulation, check it out...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg
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Quoting Drakoen:
How old is Drak?


Old enough to know better, but still too young to care, just kidding Drak, what's your take on 93L? personally I wouldn't write it off , but its a long shot IMO.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
I am not seeing anything in 93l...my eye is untrained...I see some storm activity, but nothing that I would consider to put this blob on the path of recovery.
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Quoting reedzone:


I'm glad I'm not just seeing things :). Vorticity is weaker, but it just got off the coastline from what it looks. Maybe just MAYBE an interesting night ahead.


Might take a while for it to get to favorable water temps. Usually a rather deep upwelling/cold water area there. And this is actually a little less cold and broad than usual.



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How old is Drak?
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Thats where its marked..click fronts you'll see 1011 mb Link


That is where it was marked earlier but has since went to the west and south of that location. There is a new swirl developing but I won't believe anything will form from this until it does.
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Quoting connie1976:
....ok....I'm confused.....I thought that there was very little chance that this thing would become a TD??

That is the case still, the system is trying to organize but just can't seem to cross the finish line if you will.
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....ok....I'm confused.....I thought that there was very little chance that this thing would become a TD??
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Quoting Levi32:
Good afternoon (or evening over there whatever).

I might be a little slow because I'm using a computer that was made in like the 80s lol. It can't handle more than 3 tabs open at a time and everything I click on takes 10 minutes to respond lol.

I've been monitoring what Reed just mentioned since early this morning. The main circulation is dissipating and heading off towards the WSW, and a new low-level spin to the east of it has been trying to become dominant all day today near 22N 88W. This is right where the 850mb vort max is, although vorticity has been weakening in the last several hours.


I'm glad I'm not just seeing things :). Vorticity is weaker, but it just got off the coastline from what it looks. Maybe just MAYBE an interesting night ahead.
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That bigger spreading cold pool in the radar covers ground about as well as driving 60 mph for the last 30 minutes or so...probably a 60 mph gust.
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Quoting StormW:


There is some sort of rotation near there, but on the coastline aprox 21.8;88.1


Yes, around there, I'm seeing a rotation that started about an hour ago, seems to be getting more evident as the hours go by. I don't believe we should be writing this storm off yet, the NHC is doing the smart thing by waiting and keeping recon up for tomorrow.
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Just add a little shrimp boil and supper should be ready soon...


Conditions at 42001 as of
(3:50 pm CDT)
2050 GMT on 06/28/2009:


Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 310 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 3.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 89.6 °F
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2492
Hello there Storm and levi... good to see you on!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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