Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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Quoting Drakoen:
The DAM model keeps the odds at >10%


Greater than 10% and less than ??
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Where are the BAM 18z runs?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
I would wait for it to splash and then give it 12 - 24hr's.
774. IKE
Like Levi said...what's on land is land-based thunderstorms.

Those should diminish when the sun goes down. I'll check back after supper and take a look at 93L and what the TWO says.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I'm giving this actually a 1/3 chance..which is up from my 20% chance this morning...but still that means odds are against it still...but hey..at least now we have something @ the surface!
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It looks like a "Felix" situation all over again (not that it will become a category 5 lol, just the development process) , you guys are too funny.
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93L's current Status,(Graphically)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
770. IKE
93L.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
769. 7544
ill vote rip for this one which i rarely do on systems but this had so manny shots
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The DAM model keeps the odds at <10%
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
Cycloneoz have you tried to hold yourself in place with Wonder Putty during a Storm could be the new pitchman.
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Quoting IKE:


I'll write it off. If I'm wrong serve me the baked crow.

Then again, I'm not a pro or a met, just a blogger with an opinion.

It looks horrid.


Actually, it organized quite well in structure today, 30-50% chance for development in my books.
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thankss !!!
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Quoting dis1322:
so if this wave is a rainmaker for south texas when should we expected it to come on shore ????? we need really bad .. today really hot, light wind and a lot humidity ...


I personally think a path into south Texas is unlikely as the high to the west should push 93L SW before reaching the coast, assuming its weak enough to be carried that direction in the first place. If it does though steering currents will be weak which could keep this over water for 4-5 days before making it to a coastline. It's hard to pinpoint anything right now.
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Quoting IKE:


I'll write it off. If I'm wrong serve me the baked crow.

Then again, I'm not a pro or a met, just a blogger with an opinion.

It looks horrid.


I'll write off too.

If it wants to prove me wrong it should do something about it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
nice analysis SCOTTSVB... ur thought are always greatly appreciated
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761. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


Good points. Never write off a surface trough in the Gulf of Mexico. That's a big no-no. They have to be watched, as things like this can and do happen where a supposedly dead system starts organizing. We'll see what happens tonight.


I'll write it off. If I'm wrong serve me the baked crow.

Then again, I'm not a pro or a met, just a blogger with an opinion.

It looks horrid.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
so if this wave is a rainmaker for south texas when should we expected it to come on shore ????? we need really bad .. today really hot, light wind and a lot humidity ...
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Quoting scottsvb:
Actually 93L is looking @ its best so far.. the LLC is becoming more circular than this morning when it was still a surface trough. Right now its hard to locate a exact center cause there could be 2 smaller centers inside the broad but overall main area of lower pressure. The center appears to be around 21.6N and 87.8W near the northern coast of the Yucitan.. Pressure is around 1007mb.. The landmass has actually helped 93L become better defined with instablity caused the daytime heating.
Now that 93L is moving NW and coming off the coast right now...it will be interesting to see if it trys to build more convection around the center and to see if the pressure falls a couple of mbs down to 1005-1006... if so we could have something in the morning, right now..its if..
Models are split on this missing the trough and heading WSW into the BOC or getting caught up in the front coming down into the eastern GOM...if this stays east of 88-90W (where its almost now) then it will probably get pulled ENE towards florida with @ least alot of moisture feeding into the frontal trough. If it misses then WSW later this week. Now if this does become better organized over the next 24-36hrs..the chances are better it will get pulled ENE along the front. Short term movement is important over the next 12-24hrs.

Finally to note... the pressure from the front will be around 1004-1007mbs... so the Globals GFS,Ukmet,CMC,Nogaps might hardly show anything cause a 1004-1005mb Tropical Storm wont show much on a map cause the surrounding pressures are the same..especially if this remains small in size (like charley but not as strong).


Good points. Never write off a surface trough in the Gulf of Mexico. That's a big no-no. They have to be watched, as things like this can and do happen where a supposedly dead system starts organizing. We'll see what happens tonight.
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758. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


After your story this morning Ike I would never crow you.


LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:


I agree...it's elongated...stretched out.

I'll say it....RIP 93L.

If I'm wrong, crow me. Enough....like a zit that finally pops. You've been a nuisance 93L.

GO!

agree drama party
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Quoting IKE:


I agree...it's elongated...stretched out.

I'll say it....RIP 93L.

If I'm wrong, crow me. Enough....like a zit that finally pops. You've been a nuisance 93L.

GO!



After your story this morning Ike I would never crow you.
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755. IKE
Please...enough....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Actually 93L is looking @ its best so far.. the LLC is becoming more circular than this morning when it was still a surface trough. Right now its hard to locate a exact center cause there could be 2 smaller centers inside the broad but overall main area of lower pressure. The center appears to be around 21.6N and 87.8W near the northern coast of the Yucitan.. Pressure is around 1007mb.. The landmass has actually helped 93L become better defined with instablity caused the daytime heating.
Now that 93L is moving NW and coming off the coast right now...it will be interesting to see if it trys to build more convection around the center and to see if the pressure falls a couple of mbs down to 1005-1006... if so we could have something in the morning, right now..its if..
Models are split on this missing the trough and heading WSW into the BOC or getting caught up in the front coming down into the eastern GOM...if this stays east of 88-90W (where its almost now) then it will probably get pulled ENE towards florida with @ least alot of moisture feeding into the frontal trough. If it misses then WSW later this week. Now if this does become better organized over the next 24-36hrs..the chances are better it will get pulled ENE along the front. Short term movement is important over the next 12-24hrs.

Finally to note... the pressure from the front will be around 1004-1007mbs... so the Globals GFS,Ukmet,CMC,Nogaps might hardly show anything cause a 1004-1005mb Tropical Storm wont show much on a map cause the surrounding pressures are the same..especially if this remains small in size (like charley but not as strong).
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Quoting IKE:


I agree...it's elongated...stretched out.

I'll say it....RIP 93L.

If I'm wrong, crow me. Enough....like a zit that finally pops. You've been a nuisance 93L.

GO!



Yes it has been. It's managed to cause a lot of drama in these blogs lol. I guess that's where it's strength lies.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
Quoting Levi32:
850mb Vorticity has stopped decreasing now. It matches up perfectly with the low-level circulation trying to get established just north of the Yucatan coast.


tonight the jury could be out deciding the verdict on this one...haha! maybe it trying to finally consolidate around a LLC
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The NASA GHCC site is by far a Great tool..although my full Like a tick DELL has some issues with it that keep me from posting them
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
750. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
They should deactivate this thing.


I agree...it's elongated...stretched out.

I'll say it....RIP 93L.

If I'm wrong, crow me. Enough....like a zit that finally pops. You've been a nuisance 93L.

GO!

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
93L is interacting with a trough which is helping with the positive vorticity advection eastward in the GOM. The 850mb vorticity from CIMSS supports this. Notice how elongated the vort is.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
850mb Vorticity has stopped decreasing now. It matches up perfectly with the low-level circulation trying to get established just north of the Yucatan coast.
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Quoting Patrap:
Your mighty visible in that STEALTH mode.

Better check the cloaking device..

LOL
93l in stealth mode

21.9 89.9
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They should deactivate this thing.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
Quoting Bailey1777:
Hey Patrap is that nexrad site the best sat. you know of or can you suggest any others(For detail)


If Pat doesn't mind me jumping in....the NASA site is very good for detailed imagery.
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Hey Patrap is that nexrad site the best sat. you know of or can you suggest any others(For detail)
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Can someone enlighten me on 93L? It looks pretty bad right now and, to be honest, I am surprised the NHC keeps it as an invest.

Where exactly is the center? Its even hard to gauge a direction right now looking at the satellite loops. How is the high pressure to the west going to effect the system? Just wondering. This one's confusing me!!! LOL!!


It's got many swirls with it which makes it hard to see where the real center is. The main one got ejected to the NW last night and is now drifting SW and weakening off the NW Yucatan. The real center is probably near the north coast of the Yucatan, but it's still weak and not closed.

In short the system is still very disorganized. We'll have to see what happens when it gets into the gulf. If it remains this weak the high to the west may steer it to the WNW or even WSW if it dissipates. If it gets stronger we'll see a more northern component to its movement.
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its a widespread wave, elongated without any clear sign of a center. Rain and nothing else. With the conditions that we have present, I would say and this is my opinion that we will not have development until about mid July or so.
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I would watch that flare up off Colombia, I know it is basically a stationary area of low pressure in that area, but one never knows.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
736. Bailey1777

93L is in a Historically favored area for some development,thru time.

But it has always struggled with getting a CoC @ the surface and holding onto its convection as well.

Only time will tell if she can fire up her engine.

Comment 569 from earlier today,

Short Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Historically,..and as I used Cindy 2005 as an example,things seems to jell in that area with diffuse systems. We may,..and I double stress,..MAY..be seeing that beginning this afternoon.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
..Little By Little..,
..everything changes.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
Can someone enlighten me on 93L? It looks pretty bad right now and, to be honest, I am surprised the NHC keeps it as an invest.

Where exactly is the center? Its even hard to gauge a direction right now looking at the satellite loops. How is the high pressure to the west going to effect the system? Just wondering. This one's confusing me!!! LOL!!
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Hey Patrap I like to read your analysis on these things so in your opinion as things stand now and the synoptics for the future what do you see happening or not happening with this invest?
Quoting Vortex95:
93l is coming into fast imo.



???
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Some of the storms like to hangout on the yucatan until something comes along and pushes them one way or another.
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Your mighty visible in that STEALTH mode.

Better check the cloaking device..

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
Quoting Patrap:
Hey KOTG,that big red L not far from the Obs we saw earlier on NexSat views..
iam watchin in stealth mode
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Keep in mind it may appear that 93L is gaining convection right now but it isn't. The land-based thunderstorms over the Yucatan are deceiving. 93L doesn't have any deep convection and the cells it does have are scattered.
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AOI/INV/93L


CEN AMER FLOATER

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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