Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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Quoting Drakoen:
Nothing is going to form.


Given the current conditions, I would tend to agree, yet I still hope we get some harmless rain. :-)
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Quoting Drakoen:
The DRAMA model takes it to cat 5 status in the next hour heading in the general direction of South Florida.


Oh the noes
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Quoting hurricane2009:


Are you offended by the fact we think its not going to develop?


No, it's actually entertaining :P
I'm giving this one more chance to redeem itself tonight because it is in the GOM with favorable conditions. 30-50%
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822. IKE
2245 UTC....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Not unusual for them to skip 06Z or 18Z on a developing Invest. Now if they skip 00Z start looking for invest.deactivate.


I was thinking that too.
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You Guys..?

Some speak in General,Wide Brush tones way too much.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting reedzone:
It's funny how all you guys are writing it off when even a Meteorologist on here is giving it another chance tonight.


I just don't see much there. The NHC shows a low pressure center that is dissipating. Most of the convection is over land.
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Only a fool turns his Back on Potential..esp in the GOM.

Never say never in the Tropical World sportsfan.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
It's funny how all you guys are writing it off when even a Meteorologist on here is giving it another chance tonight.
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Quoting extreme236:


If they didnt run the 18z models, they are likely terminating this invest, at least until it is warranted again.


Not unusual for them to skip 06Z or 18Z on a developing Invest. Now if they skip 00Z start looking for invest.deactivate.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11179
I too give in. I really thought last night this thing was going to hang around but now people are really reaching. This sucker is dead. Until the blob forms...
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Dibs on Obs,..LOL
Unreal..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
The DRAMA model takes it to cat 5 status in the next hour heading in the general direction of South Florida.
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Quoting extreme236:


If they didnt run the 18z models, they are likely terminating this invest, at least until it is warranted again.


They didn't run the 06Z runs yesterday and it stayed.
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AOI/INV/93L
MARK
21.9N/89.9W

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841

Quoting Levi32:


Looks like it's around 22N 88.2W to me. It matches perfectly with the 850mb vort max too.


Yeah I think thats a midlevel circulation trying to form almost on top of the LLC on the eastern side of that near 21.7N and 87.9W
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Quoting reedzone:


doubt it


If they didnt run the 18z models, they are likely terminating this invest, at least until it is warranted again.
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Quoting Levi32:


I was looking at it since early this morning Alaska time :P I think we both saw it at about the same time.


True, a new burst of convection is popping just northeast of our suspected low
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Thougth you ment less than, but maybe the DAM didn't run at 18Z


The DAM model run has been closely monitoring the situation. The DAM sees nothing coming out of this system.
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Quoting reedzone:


hey, thats where I was mentioning a possible developing low :P


I was looking at it since early this morning Alaska time :P I think we both saw it at about the same time.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Drakoen:


NHC is ready to pull the plug


doubt it
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Quoting Drakoen:


fixed LOL


Thougth you ment less than, but maybe the DAM didn't run at 18Z
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11179


NexSat Visible,GOM and Yucatan Latest Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
If 93L looked like this when it was in the Central Caribbean I would be concerned; however, that is not the case. The low level cloud swirl is heading WSW into the BOC where there is subsidence.
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Quoting StormW:
Evening scott.


good evening StormW
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Splish splash we'll be takin' a bath...
Link
Looks like some wet stuff coming into north florida now. Then Wunderground Models page shows 93L basically ending up in Central Florida as a long band of showers by Tues.
Here's the Models Page from Wunderground.
No sign of anything going west or north Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
I doubt anyone would even mention this area as a potential "blob" if not for earlier being labeled as an "invest." It shows no potential for me.
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Quoting hurricane2009:


None of the 18Z models were run, maybe this tells us that this invest is going to be dropped


NHC is ready to pull the plug
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Quoting Levi32:


Looks like it's around 22N 88.2W to me. It matches perfectly with the 850mb vort max too.


hey, thats where I was mentioning a possible developing low :P
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788. IKE
Quoting hurricane2009:


None of the 18Z models were run, maybe this tells us that this invest is going to be dropped


It may.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Greater than 10% and less than ??


fixed LOL
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785. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Where are the BAM 18z runs?


Don't see any.

None for the GFDL and HWRF.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting scottsvb:
I'm giving this actually a 1/3 chance..which is up from my 20% chance this morning...but still that means odds are against it still...but hey..at least now we have something @ the surface!


After days of looking, we finally have a surface low. I agree with your analysis, deff needs to still be monitored through the overnight hours. I'm still thinking code yellow at 8 p.m.
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Quoting scottsvb:
Some people are looking @ the center of the Yucitan (that have emailed me) but its actually right now the northern coast or just offshore now.


Looks like it's around 22N 88.2W to me. It matches perfectly with the 850mb vort max too.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting reedzone:
It looks like a "Felix" situation all over again (not that it will become a category 5 lol, just the development process) , you guys are too funny.


There isn't much here to look at. Looks like popcorn thunderstorms.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Where are the BAM 18z runs?


No 18Z model runs.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11179
Some people are looking @ the center of the Yucitan (that have emailed me) but its actually right now the northern coast or just offshore now.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The DAM model keeps the odds at >10%


Greater than 10% and less than ??
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11179

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.