Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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875. IKE
RIP 93L....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PERSIST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L
lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53536
Quoting 7544:


what does all this mean is comback in the making for 93l ?


there is a slim possibility it might blow up tonight, it's in the GOM, and it's under a tight anticyclone, invests like this one is always a mystery. I'm giving it one more chance for it to do something and it may not, but given the conditions, dry air is there, but I don't see much of orange (very dry air) on the water vapor, so it has a chance. 30-50%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Mission of the Hurricane Hunters


The primary mission of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (53rd WRS) is to conduct tropical storm reconnaissance. The 53rd WRS is aligned under the 403rd Reserve Wing located at Keesler AFB in Biloxi, Mississippi. Although the airplanes and people are Department of Defense assets the units “primary tasking” command is the Department of Commerce. Although a strange set-up it has worked well. Tropical reconnaissance is governed by the National Hurricane Operations Plan. This plan specifics that the 53rd WRS will support 24 hour a day continuous operations and have the ability to fly up to 3 storms at a time with a response time of 16 hours. I am sure you thinking, 3 storms a day, that would never happen! Well, our AOR is not just the Caribbean and the Atlantic it actually extends from the Mid-Atlantic (55W Longitude) to the International Dateline in the Pacific.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Yawwwwwn, off back to the pool and another Pina Colado on another Sizzle dizzle summer TX hot afternoon.
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868. 7544
Quoting btwntx08:

true i saw it


what does all this mean is comback in the making for 93l ?
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Quoting btwntx08:

true i saw it


This system has failed to sustain convection...just look back at its history.
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Looks like storms have their eyes on Mexico
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322
ABNT20 KNHC 282332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PERSIST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lets see whats going on here...... ohhhh some afternoon pop up storms over the Yucatan, thats pretty normal for summer time activity down there. Looks like a quiet June after all.
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So much for: "Actually 93L is looking @ its best so far."
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also vorticity has increased just a tad.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html
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Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L
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Latest NexSat GOM,Yucatan Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

New shear map shows a tight anticyclone right over 93L, don't write it off yet.
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855. 7544
ok wheres taz he will settle this
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike is right:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PERSIST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
851. IKE
NHC may keep it at the 30% and finally write it off in the 7 am CDST TWO.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
849. IKE
Quoting Gulfsyed:
The area of showers surrounding the entire gulf and the soon to be depression is expanding rapidly. What does this tell us about the future of the system, it must be a sign the climate is right for development and this helps feed the system or does it not really matter?


Depression?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
The area of showers surrounding the entire gulf and the soon to be depression is expanding rapidly. What does this tell us about the future of the system, it must be a sign the climate is right for development and this helps feed the system or does it not really matter?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sporteguy03:


StormW can you break the tie? lol :)

The only reason I said that was because he said "oh my goodness a Met said it has a chance" There are a ton of Meteorologists on this page besides myself and quite a few others. So yes just because one said it has a chance does not mean I bow down to it and change what I think is going to happen haha.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Not unusual for them to skip 06Z or 18Z on a developing Invest. Now if they skip 00Z start looking for invest.deactivate.
yep if nothing devs it is as good as gone but till then no harm to keep a tab on it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53536
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I too am a Meteorologist and I am writing it off. So because I am a Met, what are you going to do now? You got one saying yes and one saying no haha.


StormW can you break the tie? lol :)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5277
when you first posted it, it was 21:45, it's 22:45 now and shows the small convective burst northeast of the center.
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Quoting IKE:


Mine says 2245.


So does mine.
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Def 2245
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836. IKE
Quoting reedzone:


21:45, check the bottom


Mine says 2245.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting reedzone:


21:45, check the bottom


Reed looks 22:45 to me?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5277
Quoting hahaguy:


Oh the noes


LOL! Behave... again LOL! :-)
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I think we will see a decent blow up tonight which may be starting as we speak. If as Scott mentioned earlier we have a possible Mid level low close to our LLC it may try to stack. I think this will head West though.
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Quoting IKE:
2245 UTC....



21:45, check the bottom
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Quoting reedzone:
It's funny how all you guys are writing it off when even a Meteorologist on here is giving it another chance tonight.

I too am a Meteorologist and I am writing it off. So because I am a Met, what are you going to do now? You got one saying yes and one saying no haha.
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cen amer. image
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53536
Quoting Drakoen:
Nothing is going to form.


Given the current conditions, I would tend to agree, yet I still hope we get some harmless rain. :-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.