Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

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the COC of the CV wave is just south of CV
Link
watch the last 12 frames

Also looks like mid-level spin just south of Cuba
Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
today aussie but may take a day or two to get back into the swing of things


Thanks mate
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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
OK ...something needs to happen .. I read this blog to not only learn but to help me get through the work day... not enough work to do here....I am soo bored. But at least I have a job 8-)

I definitely agree there. Some days, I hardly have time to breathe. Other days... I browse the blogs looking for something interesting while I'm waiting for some report to run.
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1324. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:
When's Dr Masters returning from his European trip?
today aussie but may take a day or two to get back into the swing of things
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OK ...something needs to happen .. I read this blog to not only learn but to help me get through the work day... not enough work to do here....I am soo bored. But at least I have a job 8-)
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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Thanks so much!!!


I hope that helps. I didn't see any rip tide mentioned for the east coast.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaneWarning:


Use this link - just click on the county with the beach you are going to and then read any Hazardous Weather Outlook that is posted.
Link


Thanks so much!!!
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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Winter Springs, FL --- we ususally go to New Smyrna Beach


Use this link - just click on the county with the beach you are going to and then read any Hazardous Weather Outlook that is posted.
Link
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaneWarning:


Where are you located? My link would just show Tampa Bay.


Winter Springs, FL --- we ususally go to New Smyrna Beach
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It’s Now Legal to Catch a Raindrop in Colorado

DURANGO, Colo. — For the first time since territorial days, rain will be free for the catching here, as more and more thirsty states part ways with one of the most entrenched codes of the West.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
orca, what is that large cloud mass south of cuba?
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


Invest 93L

Invest 93L


Trying a few new things.... hope it works this time
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Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Can I have the link where to find out about that? I would like to check before I take my kids to the beach this week....also have family coming next month.


Where are you located? My link would just show Tampa Bay.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
got a quick 45minutes of fishing in last night around sunset,the waves were knocking me around a little bit,I'll be off to start my second day of training at my new job in a bit!!!!
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Surfmom you are right, the NWS just put out the Hazardous Weather Outlook and they do mention strong rip currents. They recommend not going in above the knee.


Can I have the link where to find out about that? I would like to check before I take my kids to the beach this week....also have family coming next month.
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1311. HTV
Quoting K8eCane:
i actually see a little spin just off the nortwest tip of Cuba. Should i smoke another one?

Only if you share with others.
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1310. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MINIMAL WITH MAIN THREATS CONTINUING TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. HOWEVER...WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW CANNOT RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
LIMITED TO MOSTLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY THANKS TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS. OVERALL THE PRESENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
MORNING UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting surfmom:


kinda like a festering Zit -- surfers are all eyeballing this too!

Off to work -- going to be muddy, mucky, muggy, buggy, -- horses --gotta love them and the job.

Got some nice rides on the surfboard yesterday Stillwaiting - no time today, got a feeling that rip is going to be vicious. Adios


Surfmom you are right, the NWS just put out the Hazardous Weather Outlook and they do mention strong rip currents. They recommend not going in above the knee.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1308. K8eCane
ooops
tropical system on carolina coast next week
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3076
1307. surfmom
Quoting stillwaiting:



abc17????in TPA,said the same thing last night,which means the model has been showing some consistancy and showed the same thing last night a frontal boundry stalling in the GOM and 93L being energized,then moving east towards the TPA area as a strengthening TD,a TS and landfall somewhere close to the TPA area,if there's a chance I'm watching it and stillwaiting!!!!,lol...


kinda like a festering Zit -- surfers are all eyeballing this too!

Off to work -- going to be muddy, mucky, muggy, buggy, -- horses --gotta love them and the job.

Got some nice rides on the surfboard yesterday Stillwaiting - no time today, got a feeling that rip is going to be vicious. Adios
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When's Dr Masters returning from his European trip?
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1305. K8eCane
i actually see a little spin just off the nortwest tip of Cuba. Should i smoke another one?
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3076
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Quoting BobinTampa:
the Tampa Bay ABC affiliate's weathercast on their website (wfts.com) makes no mention of it. just shows us getting a lot of rain on Tuesday.


No, it does make mention of it...or at least the tropical moisture part.

Link
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1302. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
there is no 93L its been deactivated
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the Tampa Bay ABC affiliate's weathercast on their website (wfts.com) makes no mention of it. just shows us getting a lot of rain on Tuesday.
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Quoting stillwaiting:



abc17????in TPA,said the same thing last night,which means the model has been showing some consistancy and showed the same thing last night a frontal boundry stalling in the GOM and 93L being energized,then moving east towards the TPA area as a strengthening TD,a TS and landfall somewhere close to the TPA area,if there's a chance I'm watching it and stillwaiting!!!!,lol...


I just went to their website and they do mention tropical moisture mixing with the cold front will lead to heavy rains in the Tampa area. This looks like a wet week.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaneWarning:
One Tampa met just said that the stations own model is forming a TD or weak TS to form in the gulf and come towards Tampa on Wednesday night. Is he smoking something or did conditions change?



abc17????in TPA,said the same thing last night,which means the model has been showing some consistancy and showed the same thing last night a frontal boundry stalling in the GOM and 93L being energized,then moving east towards the TPA area as a strengthening TD,a TS and landfall somewhere close to the TPA area,if there's a chance I'm watching it and stillwaiting!!!!,lol...
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Well, Titan is no Klystron 9 :o)

Although Klystron 9 did have all the moisture coming our way, it just didn't develop it into anything.

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Quoting BobinTampa:
Which station was that??


The one that uses Titan. I think that is ABC?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Which station was that??
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QS of the wave off the african coast showing a LLC


Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe he is not smokin enough


Actually, he just showed the stations computer models and sure enough it had a low coming into the Tampa area as a 45 MPH tropical storm.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1293. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CaneWarning:
One Tampa met just said that the stations own model is forming a TD or weak TS to form in the gulf and come towards Tampa on Wednesday night. Is he smoking something or did conditions change?
maybe he is not smokin enough
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1292. WxLogic
Interesting... ORL, FL will hopefully be getting a new Hurricane R&D Facility by 2012. Very nice...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If microwaves were targeted or focused on a condensate filled downdraft within a storm cell, could it be heated enough to disrupt circulation?
I know typical radar and microwaves are to weak for this, but if it was done with a high power system intentionally, could a hot burst be used to disorganize structured circulation and weaken a storm?
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1290. WxLogic
Morning...
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Quoting CaneWarning:
One Tampa met just said that the stations own model is forming a TD or weak TS to form in the gulf and come towards Tampa on Wednesday night. Is he smoking something or did conditions change?


LOL!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One Tampa met just said that the stations own model is forming a TD or weak TS to form in the gulf and come towards Tampa on Wednesday night. Is he smoking something or did conditions change?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Here is the 8 AM EDT discussion about the new wave.

<.A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS LIKELY MOVED OFF THE W
AFRICAN COAST AND IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 20W S OF 17N. THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY IN THIS AREA SHOW THIS
WELL-DEFINED FEATURE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT AND COINCIDING WITH A
RATHER HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE COVERAGE OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO...CYCLONIC MOTION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EVIDENT NEAR THIS FEATURE. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSES FROM DAKAR
SENEGAL INDICATE AN ABRUPT SHIFT OF ANOMALOUS FLOW BELOW THE 750
MB LEVEL FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 28/1200
UTC...INDICATING THAT WAVE PASSAGE LIKELY OCCURRED AT DAKAR
AROUND THAT TIME. THIS FEATURE COINCIDES WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMUM
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. THUS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BE ADDED
TO THE 29/1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC.
/strong>
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What, less than ten comments since 4 a.m.? LOL

Well, looks relatively clear here for now, with hazy skies but no rain. Wonder if this is the "beginning of the end" for the heavy rain, or if we have another week's worth to go.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
Good morning everyone :)
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TRANQUIL TROPICS
The tropical atlantic is now very quiet with none of the models forcasting any development the next seven days. shear has ramped up a bit inthe central caribbean as well as the atlantic east and northeast of the lesser antilles. water vapour imagery shows dry sinking air in the eastern atlantic while the caribbean has some showers due to an ULL east of cuba. a tropical in the mid atlantic although showing a little swirl in the lower levels is devoid of any convection due to the stable atmosphere ther brought on by an upper level ridge. over the african coast there are two impressive looking tropical waves , one at 10 w and the other at 10e. there is also an area off the coast showing some form of cyclonic turning, but that too is devoid of any convection. with the sst still cool in the far eatl and the stable air in the central atl those waves will have a torrid time in trying to develop into any thing. with that said tropical storm activity does not seem possible in the near future
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1283. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hey Ike. what do you think of the spin coming off Africa?
Has to be watched for development.... right?


Might as well watch it. Not much else to watch.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Tropics Quiet; July Outlook

Enjoy and Thanks
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Hey Ike. what do you think of the spin coming off Africa?
Has to be watched for development.... right?
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System off Africa fell apart. All is quiet.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1279. IKE
Quoting scott39:
93L is not done yet. it still has a circulation. look for monday to be interesting.


Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on June 29, 2009

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Blake
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Look whats just coming off Africa, and it has spin


Link
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1277. scott39
93L is not done yet. it still has a circulation. look for monday to be interesting.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.