Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A late look at Invest93L
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:52 AM GMT on June 27, 2009 +1
Hi everybody, this is Rob Carver, R&D Scientist for Wunderground, filling in for Jeff Masters.

Summary of the situation

In the Tropical Weather Outlook NHC has tagged a tropical wave in the NW Caribbean Sea as Invest93L and believes that it has a 30-50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. As of now (11 PM PDT, June 26), the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this area on June 28. The track models have Invest93L moving through the Yucatan Straits into the Gulf of Mexico. After that, most of the models take the cyclone north and east making landfall along a wide swath of Florida's Gulf Coast on Wednesday of next week. The intensity models predict that at landfall, the system will be a weak Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm.


Figure 1. Plot of upper-level wind shear from CIMSS

Wind Shear Aloft

The wind shear patterns are favorable for intensification of Invest93L if it can make it through the Yucatan Straits. Figure 1 shows that currently, Invest93L is an unfavorable environment, with shear > 20 knots. However, north of the Yucatan Straits and SW of Florida, the shear drops to a favorable 5 knots. Both the GFS and NAM predict that that this shear pattern will be fairly constant over the next several days. Also, the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are either normal or slightly above normal, so that will be favorable for storm development.

What happens next?
If Invest93L can survive long enough to get in the Gulf of Mexico, then I believe it can develop into TS Ana, the first named storm of the year. However, survival is not guaranteed, the convection around Invest93L is not that persistent. That said, people with interests along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on this storm this weekend and into the early part of the next week.

Rob Carver
Categories: Hurricane
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2352. Drakoen 2:55 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
or cyclogenesis rays from Alpha Centauri will turn 93L into typhoon Tip by breakfast ;)


Perhaps.
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2353. wxhatt 2:56 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
ROFL!
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2354. sporteguy03 2:56 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Dr.Masters returns Monday I'll give that a near 100% chance of happening.
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2355. HaboobsRsweet 2:56 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting Orcasystems:


You know they won't be happy unless it gets up in the Cat #'s. They all say they don't want anyone to get hurt... but they would sure love a Cat 2-3 in the GOM. Its sort of like watch vultures.

True, at this point I would take even just a TD so we can get the season rolling a little bit.
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2356. RainyEyes 2:56 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Well, he could apparantly understand English to comment on Drak being an idiot.

I don't go into ALL spanish posts and begin ranting in English...that would just be rude.

Dr. Masters posts in English, I suppose if he wanted a bilingual blog, he would post in both English and Spanish. I would understand if a spanish speaking country were under a state of emergency, but currently there isn't a need for dual languages in the blog.
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2358. CaneWarning 2:57 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Tu madre es un pato.
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2359. centex 2:57 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Moisture is now getting pulled in from S by ULL and overall system is getting pushed(squeezed) S by flow from FL. So near term 24/36 hours looks like only place it can, more NW. At least that is what I see on WV.
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2360. Orcasystems 2:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
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2362. Drakoen 2:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
We should be getting updates from DRAMA model shortly.
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2364. TampaFLUSA 2:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
that translation was done by Google or Bablefish...nobody talks like that in Spanish...it like talking extremely proper English.

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2366. VAbeachhurricanes 2:59 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting RainyEyes:
Well, he could apparantly understand English to comment on Drak being an idiot.

I don't go into ALL spanish posts and begin ranting in English...that would just be rude.

Dr. Masters posts in English, I suppose if he wanted a bilingual blog, he would post in both English and Spanish. I would understand if a spanish speaking country were under a state of emergency, but currently there isn't a need for dual languages in the blog.

----
so spanish speaking people arnt allowed in your english blog... thats nice...
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2367. wxhatt 3:00 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
It's bad enough I lost my PWS server, and don't know if I'll get back online by end of the season. :(
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2368. RainyEyes 3:00 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
They are allowed in, just respect the language that is used...here it is English.
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2369. HaboobsRsweet 3:00 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting hurricane2009:


we had one already lol

In the gulf and one that has a chance to hit some land. The real first one was boring and weak.
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2370. Drakoen 3:01 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'm hurt Drak I though I just posted the update from the DRAMA model ;)


It can only be initialized by one specific person.
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2371. TampaFLUSA 3:01 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting CaneWarning:
Tu madre es un pato.

patA rotfl
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2372. CosmicEvents 3:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Everyone is giving up and with what reasoning? It is labeled yellow because in reality nothing will form until Monday. I think we all new this two days ago. After the next 36-48s, we will know the real story. Yes, not Cat 5 out of this system but a solid TS or even Cat 1 is not out of the quesiton.

That's exactly the reason why I don't like the idiot colors. The average person who manages to find the NHC site looks at the idiot colors and doesn't understand the full story...specifically, anything beyond 48 hours out.
.
.
The system worked fine for years when the public needed to read the TWO's. Now, I'm afraid too many read the mini-comment that pops-up on the idiot colors and it ends there. At 48 hours.
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2374. presslord 3:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Weather Underground is translatable into several dozen languages...
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2375. VAbeachhurricanes 3:04 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
thats real generous of you...
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2376. Drakoen 3:03 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting JuttyinMS:
I usually just lurk in here until I can't take it anymore..weatherstudent, you are either jfv or eminem's son and cchs, if it's an "illegal act," call the law


lol. Wannabe-thug/gangster
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2377. TampaFLUSA 3:05 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting presslord:
Weather Underground is translatable into several dozen languages...

You can do it in 2 seconds...just tyype the webpage Link
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2378. MeteorodelGolfo 3:06 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
This is not Spanish, this´s a bad translation
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2379. beell 3:06 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Buenas Noches!
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2380. cchsweatherman 3:07 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting Drakoen:


lol. Wannabe-thug/gangster


Agreed.
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2381. TampaFLUSA 3:07 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
nevermind
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2382. david5531 3:07 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
An update from Akumal, QR, Mexico - 60 miles south of Cancun - basically due west of the southern tip of Cozumel. It has been cloudy all day, surf maybe 1 foot higher than normal, but normal winds and no rain.
2383. Drakoen 3:07 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
JFV and CCHS be the same peeps.
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2384. Drakoen 3:09 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
I wonder where the THUG model takes 93L?
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2385. Orcasystems 3:08 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

You can do it in 2 seconds...just tyype the webpage Link


Or you could go to the Spanish version :)
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2386. moonlightcowboy 3:08 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
2340. Thanks, beell! Sup? You investing in AC companies these days down in TX? What's your take on this invest?
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2387. jeffs713 3:09 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting presslord:
Weather Underground is translatable into several dozen languages...

Yes, but I can translate it to gibberish!

And hello everyone!
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2388. Nolehead 3:09 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
2383. Drakoen 9:07 PM CST on June 27, 2009
JFV and CCHS be the same peeps.


say it ain't so.........
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2389. Patrap 3:09 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
I find my Blog in Google all the time with different Languages.

Link

..and more here

Results 41 - 50 of about 27,600 for Patrap,wunderground. (0.43 seconds)
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2391. RainyEyes 3:10 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Hi Jeff
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2392. moonlightcowboy 3:11 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting JuttyinMS:
Actually, I'm a Ph.D student at The University of Southern Mississippi, not a wannabe thug, I follow this site a lot and get tired of seeing all the arguing and worthless comments that have nothing to do with the tropics

I hear ya, Jutty! Congratulations on your accomplishments there at USM. That's awesome!

...uuummm, but you if you linger here you may as well get used to the worthless bickering, or get really used to using the WU tools for ignoring and banning! This time of the year this blog gets a plentiful assortment of that.
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2393. Drakoen 3:11 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting JuttyinMS:
Actually, I'm a Ph.D student at The University of Southern Mississippi, not a wannabe thug, I follow this site a lot and get tired of seeing all the arguing and worthless comments that have nothing to do with the tropics


PhD in what? The thug comment wasn't in reference to you.
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2394. cchsweatherman 3:12 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting Drakoen:
JFV and CCHS be the same peeps.


Whats that supposed to mean?
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2395. centex 3:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting Drakoen:


PhD in what? The thug comment wasn't in reference to you.
Please stop making worthless post, we are only interested in your tropics post.
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2396. HaboobsRsweet 3:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Anybody else agree with me when they say getting your degree in Meteo did squat for you if you are in a forecasting job. I do aviation weather all day every day and college did nothing for me but just get familar with a few terms.
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2397. stillwaiting 3:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
anykind of west winds ssw,sw,wsw,w,wnw,nw,nnw over the yucatan?????,this could rapidly develop a close surface low over the next 12hrs as it drifts North overnight,imo.It w/no longer have to deal w/land and the available energy to fuel this storm is abundant(high available heat content) in the southeast GOM!!!
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2398. Drakoen 3:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Whats that supposed to mean?


You guys act the same.
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2399. blairkiel 3:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
What do you guys think the chances of this being a cat 4 or 5 and taking a similar track to Katrina or Rita?

I am worried for NO.

2400. presslord 3:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Opstay ithway ethay illysay apcray

Kudos to anyone who can guess this language...
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2401. BahaHurican 3:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2009    
Quoting Drakoen:
Leave it to Cyberteddy to bring up that from two years ago. I don't go digging around Jeff Masters blogs trying to repudiate people.
Well, nobody's perfect. . . lol

Quoting weathersp:
Where NHC defines the "center"...
one of the things I will say about NHC is that they very likely have MUCH better equipment than just about anybody in the blog, along with more direct access to the models and the data that is used to run the models. If they can't find the centre, I'm not surprised people in here are seeing it all over the place....

Quoting GatorWX:
Why doesn't everyone just ignore him? He feeds off everyone's comments. It's quite obvious he wont make it through the season, but enough is enough. There's more blabor back and forth about him than necessary. I'd imagine 5-10% of these 2100 posts contains at least some illegitimate about him. I really don't think anyone cares what he has to say or your comments about him. WHO CARES??? Who the heck is JFV? Does it matter if it is him. Maybe it's stormtop. Who knows. It simply is irrelevant and pointless to the discussion the majority of us are here for. Quite frankly, it's just as annoying to hear everyone bickering about him, whether he's here or not, than it is with his own comments. If he tries to push your buttons, ignore him. You win! It's acknowledging him that he wants. Anyone with any real maturity will figure this out. It may be hard, but you just have to do it. I myself am getting really sick of all these comments. Thankyou
Yes, thank you very much for those words of wisdom. Unfortunately for us, there are some other people out there who think it is "fun" to bait or conversate about this guy. Which they'd get some maturity about it.

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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