A late look at Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:52 AM GMT on June 27, 2009

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Hi everybody, this is Rob Carver, R&D Scientist for Wunderground, filling in for Jeff Masters.

Summary of the situation

In the Tropical Weather Outlook NHC has tagged a tropical wave in the NW Caribbean Sea as Invest93L and believes that it has a 30-50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. As of now (11 PM PDT, June 26), the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this area on June 28. The track models have Invest93L moving through the Yucatan Straits into the Gulf of Mexico. After that, most of the models take the cyclone north and east making landfall along a wide swath of Florida's Gulf Coast on Wednesday of next week. The intensity models predict that at landfall, the system will be a weak Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm.


Figure 1. Plot of upper-level wind shear from CIMSS

Wind Shear Aloft

The wind shear patterns are favorable for intensification of Invest93L if it can make it through the Yucatan Straits. Figure 1 shows that currently, Invest93L is an unfavorable environment, with shear > 20 knots. However, north of the Yucatan Straits and SW of Florida, the shear drops to a favorable 5 knots. Both the GFS and NAM predict that that this shear pattern will be fairly constant over the next several days. Also, the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are either normal or slightly above normal, so that will be favorable for storm development.

What happens next?
If Invest93L can survive long enough to get in the Gulf of Mexico, then I believe it can develop into TS Ana, the first named storm of the year. However, survival is not guaranteed, the convection around Invest93L is not that persistent. That said, people with interests along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on this storm this weekend and into the early part of the next week.

Rob Carver

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2812. OnTheFlats
12:49 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting SLU:
Morning

93L is almost completely gone but there's a chance that it might reorganise today now that it's in the Gulf.

What has become of the big Cape Verde storm the GFS was so excited about for over a week? There isn't even a cloudmass to track farless an organised disturbance. I'm so disappointed by the lack of perfomance of the GFS this season. It's going to have to do a lot from now on to win back my confidence for the rest of the season. Was the Cape Verde project for the computer models in 2006 scrapped? Because the data collected helped the computer models forecast development much better.
I'm thinking the SST's are a still too cool to support development plust the dry, dusty air just off the coast impedes development until later on in the season
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
2811. OnTheFlats
12:44 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
I'm on the SE Florida coast and was wondering what anyones opinion was on that huge blob of the SE coast bringing some rain to us. I am laying new sod on my yard today and the extra rain would be awesome!
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
2810. SLU
12:43 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Morning

93L is almost completely gone but there's a chance that it might reorganise today now that it's in the Gulf.

What has become of the big Cape Verde storm the GFS was so excited about for over a week? There isn't even a cloudmass to track farless an organised disturbance. I'm so disappointed by the lack of perfomance of the GFS this season. It's going to have to do a lot from now on to win back my confidence for the rest of the season. Was the Cape Verde project for the computer models in 2006 scrapped? Because the data collected helped the computer models forecast development much better.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
2809. OnTheFlats
12:38 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We will see our first named storm of the season, weather it be from 93L or from ssome other system. The longer we wait the more likely Ana will be stronger, perhaps our first hurricane take hurricane andrew and Alex for example. So we should have patience.
I couldn't agree more. That was one strange hurricane season. I was in Ft. Pierce surfing the day before Andrew and the ocean was dead calm and the tide was 2-3 ft. lower than forecast and I had an eerie feeling. On the way home at the corner of Orange Ave. and US 1 in Ft. Pierce, there were 10-15 huge Peacocks running around on US 1 and that's when I knew something serious was going to happen from the storm.
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
2808. WPBHurricane05
12:34 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
new blog...
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2807. polarcane
12:34 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting OnTheFlats:
He wouldn't say. He almost didn't want to say anything but the another Met. forced it out of him, he kind of said it on a whim. Then he said to tune into PRO Accuweather for the answer to the landfall. I don't have PRO, I'm better off with Tropical Wunderground.
The pro is almost worth it for the videos he puts out. You do get it free for one month or at least you used to. I usually get it around the peak of hurricane season and end up paying for two months and then cancel it during the fall. Probably get it late July or early August.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 229
2806. CybrTeddy
12:34 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting 7544:


sure i think we can call that a sure bet
but was there ever seson in record that there was not one name storm ? anyone know


The most inactive season was 1914, 1 named storm and that was a 70 MPH TS. There were likely several other systems.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
2805. Cavin Rawlins
12:33 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Good Morning;

Tropical Invest 93L over the Yucatan
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2804. OnTheFlats
12:32 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting polarcane:
Gotta love Bastardi. He is passionate about hurricanes.
I know, it's a full on Love/Hate relationship.
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
2803. 7544
12:31 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We will see our first named storm of the season, weather it be from 93L or from ssome other system. The longer we wait the more likely Ana will be stronger, perhaps our first hurricane take hurricane andrew and Alex for example. So we should have patience.


sure i think we can call that a sure bet
but was there ever seson in record that there was not one name storm ? anyone know
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
2802. polarcane
12:31 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Same here...everything looks dead from lack of rain and intense heat.

Looks like 93L has a shot at hanging in the GOM all week causing numerous arguments on here.

Maybe it will spread out to a huge blob that will take up the entire GOM and just rain on everyone and break this heat wave! That is my wishcast for the day!
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 229
2801. CybrTeddy
12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
We will see our first named storm of the season, weather it be from 93L or from ssome other system. The longer we wait the more likely Ana will be stronger, perhaps our first hurricane take hurricane andrew and Alex for example. So we should have patience.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
2800. OnTheFlats
12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Apparently he thinks northern-central GOM.

Does he have any idea on landfall?
He wouldn't say. He almost didn't want to say anything but the another Met. forced it out of him, he kind of said it on a whim. Then he said to tune into PRO Accuweather for the answer to the landfall. I don't have PRO, I'm better off with Tropical Wunderground.
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
2799. polarcane
12:28 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting OnTheFlats:
The NAMS and NOGAPS show it almost exactly where Bastardi said it would be at that time. I know he can be a little over the top and acts like a clown at times but thanks to him I was prepared for Wilma 4 days in advance. Who knows with this thing and if anything will bring some rain to some dry, crispy regions of the Gulf.
Gotta love Bastardi. He is passionate about hurricanes.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 229
2798. Rmadillo
12:27 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Yesterday's flare up was not persisitant enough, as whatever center there might have been passed over the Yucatan. Most models backing off on any development, with some agreement of moisture pulling into central florida. No sign of real relief for texas, canadian still goes with the heat.Potenetial still there for tropical development, but potential is all there is right now.

think of frozen drinks with umbrallas. Until then, I'm off to run across the road.

Good day, blogggers.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
2797. polarcane
12:26 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting OnTheFlats:
I'm telling you!!! I had to put a couple of wet towels on top of the umbrella yesterday to keep the sun from scorching me through the umbrella. It works beautifully. I'm a fishing guide in The Everglades and this late spring/summer sun is already taking it's toll on me!!
wow!
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 229
2796. TampaSpin
12:25 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Troll Juice Recipes

You all might need this.....be responsible tho...have a good day and will BBL late tonite! NO FIGHTING KIDS! IKE you keep the peace brother!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2795. OnTheFlats
12:25 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting polarcane:
Yea I was outside yesterday sitting under a canopy and still managed to get sunburnt. My canopy was under a shade tree also. Sun is just intense right now.
I'm telling you!!! I had to put a couple of wet towels on top of the umbrella yesterday to keep the sun from scorching me through the umbrella. It works beautifully. I'm a fishing guide in The Everglades and this late spring/summer sun is already taking it's toll on me!!
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
2794. CybrTeddy
12:24 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
93L's looking pretty sick this morning, and I'm even saying that lol. We should watch off Florida too take a look off it.
93L still has a decent shot in the GOMEX.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
2793. IKE
12:24 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting OnTheFlats:
The NAMS and NOGAPS show it almost exactly where Bastardi said it would be at that time. I know he can be a little over the top and acts like a clown at times but thanks to him I was prepared for Wilma 4 days in advance. Who knows with this thing and if anything will bring some rain to some dry, crispy regions of the Gulf.


Apparently he thinks northern-central GOM.

Does he have any idea on landfall?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2792. 7544
12:23 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
gfdl brings back 93l
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
2791. polarcane
12:22 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting IKE:


And some want to get hit by a hurricane? Hard to figure.
Well last year I was asked by a coworker, "You enjoy watching these storms, why did you not stay to experience it?" I told them I am not stupid, I left to protect my family and local authorities told me to leave. I have children also. Gotta get them out of harms way.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 229
2790. IKE
12:22 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Convection w/93L is starting to flair up again. Right on cue.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2789. OnTheFlats
12:21 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
The NAMS and NOGAPS show it almost exactly where Bastardi said it would be at that time. I know he can be a little over the top and acts like a clown at times but thanks to him I was prepared for Wilma 4 days in advance. Who knows with this thing and if anything will bring some rain to some dry, crispy regions of the Gulf.
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
2788. AussieStorm
12:21 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
2787. IKE
12:20 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting polarcane:
Yea I was outside yesterday sitting under a canopy and still managed to get sunburnt. My canopy was under a shade tree also. Sun is just intense right now.


Same here...everything looks dead from lack of rain and intense heat.

Looks like 93L has a shot at hanging in the GOM all week causing numerous arguments on here.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2786. polarcane
12:18 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting IKE:


This heat wave we've had was forecast to break....and break...and break.

It's slowly backed off but not near as fast as these models indicated.

Models jump the gun more often in the summer when the jet stream is further north and things move slower.
Yea I was outside yesterday sitting under a canopy and still managed to get sunburnt. My canopy was under a shade tree also. Sun is just intense right now.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 229
2785. IKE
12:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting polarcane:
Yea there are still blue tarps here to attest to that!


And some want to get hit by a hurricane? Hard to figure.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2784. WPBHurricane05
12:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting polarcane:
Yea there are still blue tarps here to attest to that!


Just goes to show that Cat 2 storms are still very powerful.

I learned that lesson after Frances in 2004.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2783. fishinfool33825
12:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
If I have learned anything here, it's to pay attention to the official forecast from the NHC and NWS first and foremost, appreciate the graphics and official information posted, and take 99% of the wishcasting and comments for entertainment value only. Until the NHC names a storm and starts drawing cones, there is no reason to get excited or concerned. Sometimes in here, just like on some game sites... these people just need to get a life! I won't second guess the pros, and have to laugh at most of the bloggers who think they know more than the NHC experts. When I feel someone has made a great observation based on real data, I like to acknowledge them for it... otherwise I am just lurking in the back ground to absorb as much information as I can, and post official information I come across that no one has already posted. That said,... back to lurk mode!
2782. IKE
12:16 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:


I have posted for the last 3 days that i just don't see the high breaking down that was the reason i thought the ULL would be out of here by now....Also keep says from Louisiana to Mexico as likely spots. Florida i just could not see!


I'm not sure where 93L will wind up....north central GOM is a possibility.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2781. TampaSpin
12:14 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting IKE:


This heat wave we've had was forecast to break....and break...and break.

It's slowly backed off but not near as fast as these models indicated.

Models jump the gun more often in the summer when the jet stream is further north and things move slower.


I have posted for the last 3 days that i just don't see the high breaking down that was the reason i thought the ULL would be out of here by now....Also keep saying from Louisiana to Mexico as likely spots. Florida i just could not see!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2780. polarcane
12:12 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting IKE:


IKE was a beast. I'll never forget that one.
Yea there are still blue tarps here to attest to that!
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 229
2779. TampaSpin
12:11 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Here is a tropical update i posted late last night if anyone would like to view!

TampaSpin Tropical Update
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2778. IKE
12:11 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting polarcane:
Well to be honest with you Ike you are one of the ones I look to for insight on here. I read this blog really well during Ike last year for insight until I had to get the hell out. Ike was a surreal experience for my family. I have alway been fascinated by storms of all kinds and enjoyed watching them but I do not wish them on anyone. People DO NOT want them coming to their town, I can assure you.


IKE was a beast. I'll never forget that one.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2777. IKE
12:10 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:
93L is looking very poor this morning! But, this loop speaks volumes as you can see the ULL is booking out to the West leaving better conditions today for 93L to start i slow organization process. Sorry i actually thought it would have happened by now cause i thought the ULL was moving out faster. It did not! We will see if 93L likes its new invironmental conditions! Here is a good Loop!


This heat wave we've had was forecast to break....and break...and break.

It's slowly backed off but not near as fast as these models indicated.

Models jump the gun more often in the summer when the jet stream is further north and things move slower.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2776. polarcane
12:06 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Well to be honest with you Ike you are one of the ones I look to for insight on here. I read this blog really well during Ike last year for insight until I had to get the hell out. Ike was a surreal experience for my family. I have alway been fascinated by storms of all kinds and enjoyed watching them but I do not wish them on anyone. People DO NOT want them coming to their town, I can assure you.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 229
2775. TampaSpin
12:06 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
93L is looking very poor this morning! But, this loop speaks volumes as you can see the ULL is booking out to the West leaving better conditions today for 93L to start a slow organization process. Sorry i actually thought it would have happened by now cause i thought the ULL was moving out faster. It did not! We will see if 93L likes its new environmental conditions! Here is a good Loop!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2774. Rmadillo
12:06 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
With a more westerly trck, and that ULL adding more shear, I figured it was doomed for at least the next 24-48, just like my bottle of Patron.

Even this man knows to stay out of the fight sometimes.

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
2773. IKE
12:05 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting sporteguy03:


Ike you said that last night? lol I could not even find it in the blog with all those comments done last night it was like looking for a needle in a haystack! lol.


I think it was during the afternoon yesterday I said that.

We need rain here in the Florida panhandle so I can mow my yard/dirt.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2772. IKE
12:03 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike,
Thoughts on convection off SE Coast?


From the latest discussion....

"Atlantic Ocean...
atmospheric instability associated with an upper level trough
digging southward into the SW north Atlc is supporting numerous
showers and thunderstorms N of 28n between 70w-79w...with
scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 27n between 62w-70w."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2771. centex
12:02 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
ULL finally moving into mexico. I think the timing of events was forecasted too fast for this system.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
2770. IKE
12:02 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
2766...true.

2767...LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2769. sporteguy03
12:01 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting IKE:
2761. Rmadillo said....

All the drama here last night? Little kids and lonely people, depending on a storm to enhance their life's interest.

No storm, and they blow a fuse. I've been lurking long enough to see it happen over and over again.



Exactly. And it will happen again on here today. And throughout the rest of the season.

If I said it looks on life-support, somebody will tell me I'm jumping the gun....it's too soon to say that....

Hello....this is a cloud mass...not a human that couldn't recover from some medical problem.

To be honest, it looks pretty bad this morning.


Ike you said that last night? lol I could not even find it in the blog with all those comments done last night it was like looking for a needle in a haystack! lol.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
2768. TampaSpin
12:01 PM GMT on June 28, 2009
Morning everyone!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2767. Rmadillo
11:59 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Polarcane, I wasn't very levelheaded last night LOL, but knew enough not to post and flame up the B$.

Don't they make breath indicators for cars? They should have one here, with a bottle next to your icon, to show how full you are.

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
2766. polarcane
11:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Early mornings or late nights are a good time to get good info on here otherwise you have to sift through too much 'casting and who is right and who is wrong. I have gotten to where I don't even post during those times
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 229
2765. IKE
11:59 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
2761. Rmadillo said....

All the drama here last night? Little kids and lonely people, depending on a storm to enhance their life's interest.

No storm, and they blow a fuse. I've been lurking long enough to see it happen over and over again.



Exactly. And it will happen again on here today. And throughout the rest of the season.

If I said it looks on life-support, somebody will tell me I'm jumping the gun....it's too soon to say that....

Hello....this is a cloud mass...not a human that couldn't recover from some medical problem.

To be honest, it looks pretty bad this morning.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2764. sporteguy03
11:54 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Ike,
Thoughts on convection off SE Coast?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
2763. polarcane
11:54 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Quoting Rmadillo:
All the drama here last night? Little kids and lonely people, depending on a storm to enhance their life's interest.

No storm, and they blow a fuse. I've been lurking long enough to see it happen over and over again.

A few of the more level-headed bloggers, like Ike, Weather456, and Levi just to name a few, post thier opinions, back them up with facts to support said opinions. Not leaving anyone out, just that's all that comes to mind on a blurry morning.

The rest are left to squeal their tires in the parking lot, angry and full of addrenaline, no race, no storm.

Too bad Jeff Masters can't install a hormone or alcohol indicator on these blogs.
Yea and if you chime in with level headness you get shredded
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 229
2762. IKE
11:52 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
NOGAPS has a strong 850 mb vort moving NNW from the Yucatan.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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