U.S. vulnerability to sea level rise

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on June 23, 2009

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In the last century, sea level rose 5 - 6 inches (13 - 15 cm) more than the global average of 7 inches (18 cm) along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, because coastal lands there are sinking. Over 50% of the U.S. coastline is vulnerable or highly vulnerable to sea level rise, according to the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). In the U.S., relative sea level rise (the combined effects of global sea level rise plus the fact the land is sinking) is highest along the Mississippi River Delta in Louisiana, where relative sea level rises of 3.2 ft (.98 meters) have been observed during the 20th century. This is one of the highest relative sea level rises in the world. According to the NOAA Tides and Currents sea level rise interactive tool, the U.S. tide gauges that have shown the highest rates of sea level rise over the past century are at Grand Island, LA (1.8 ft rise since 1947), Galveston, TX (1.1 ft since 1957), and Chesapeake Bay, VA (0.6 feet since 1975). Alaska and some areas along the Pacific Northwest coast are at low risk of sea level rise, because the relative sea level is actually falling at present. Land in these regions is rising as it recovers from removal of the weight of the great ice sheets that covered much of North America during the last Ice Age. For example, relative sea level at Kodiak Island, Alaska has fallen by 1.1 feet since 1975, despite the fact global sea level has been increasing.


Figure 1. Twentieth century annual relative sea-level rise rates in mm/year along the U.S. coast. The higher rates for Louisiana (9.85 millimeters [mm] per year, about 3.3 ft/century) and the mid-Atlantic region (1.75 to 4.42 mm per year, 0.6 - 1.4 ft/century) are due to land subsidence. Sea level is stable or dropping relative to the land in the Pacific Northwest, as indicated by the negative values, where the land is tectonically active or rebounding upward in response to the melting of ice sheets since the last Ice Age. Image credit: Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region (data from Zervas, 2001).

U.S. Coastal Vulnerability
The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) takes into account six factors:

1) The geology of the coast. Barrier islands, river deltas, and marshes are the most vulnerable to erosion and sea level rise, while steep, rocky cliff shores are the least. Sheltered bays like Galveston Bay and Tampa Bay are less vulnerable than the exposed coasts. (Note, however, that hurricane storm surges are typically higher in sheltered bays, at least for slow-moving storms).

2) How steep the land near the coast is. Gently sloping lands are the most vulnerable. In the Gulf Coast region, the slope variable has the highest risk ranking along the Louisiana coast, the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, and the southwest Florida coast.

3) The local rate of sea level rise. The sea level is rising faster along the western Gulf of Mexico than the eastern Gulf. The highest rates of sea-level rise in the Gulf of Mexico (and in the United States) are in the Mississippi delta region (10 mm/yr, or 1 inch/2.5 years).

4) The amount of shoreline erosion going on. Most of the U.S. coast is moderately or severely eroding, and very few areas are gaining (Figure 2).

5) The mean tidal range. Shores that have a large difference between low and high tide are less likely to get a significant storm tide--the height above mean sea level of the sum of the storm surge plus the tide. For example, in a region like Maine, which has a 12 ft range between low and high tide, a storm having a 9 ft storm surge will have a storm tide below local high tide for a quarter of a tidal cycle. Shores with a very narrow tidal range (e.g., the 2 ft tidal range common along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast) will get a storm tide of 8 - 10 feet with the 9 ft storm surge in the above example. Shorelines with a narrow tidal range always get high storm tides regardless of when the storm surge hits.

6) How high the waves at shore are. Obviously, shores that experience higher wave heights are at greater risk. In the Gulf of Mexico, wave energy is highest along sections of the Texas coast and on the southern tip of the Mississippi delta.

Figure 2. Shoreline change around the United States based on surveys over the past century. All 30 coastal states are experiencing overall erosion due to natural processes (e.g., storms, sea-level rise) and human activity. If the shoreline is uncolored, no data was available. Image credit: USGS, 1985, and taken from Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region).

The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) web page gives detailed maps of each section of the U.S. coast, along with specific reasons why each portion of the coast was assigned the ranking it got. A brief summary:

The Gulf Coast
The Gulf Coast has 55% of its length in the "very high" or "high" vulnerability range. Fully 41% of the coast falls in the "very high" range, far more than the 28% in that category along the Pacific coast and 23% along the Atlantic coast. The region around New Orleans is the most vulnerable region of the entire U.S. coast. The Florida Panhandle, as well as the West Florida coast, are at low to moderate risk because the land is not sinking much, wave heights are lower, and the slope of the land is relatively steep near the coast. The Texas coast is considered to be at a high to very high risk because of the relatively high mean wave height, sinking land, and shallow coastal slope.

The East Coast
The East Coast has 50% of its length in the "very high" or "high" vulnerability range. The highest vulnerability areas are typically high-energy coastlines where the regional coastal slope is low and where the major landform type is a barrier island. A significant exception to this is found in the lower Chesapeake Bay. Here, the low coastal slope, vulnerable landform type (salt marsh) and high rate of relative sea-level rise combine for a high CVI value. The coastline of northern New England, particularly Maine, shows a relatively low vulnerability to future sea-level rise. This is primarily due to the steep coastal slopes and rocky shoreline characteristic of the region, as well as the large tidal range.

The Pacific Coast
The Pacific Coast has 50% of its length in the "very high" or "high" vulnerability range. Areas of very high vulnerability include the San Francisco - Monterey Bay coast and in southern California from San Luis Obispo to San Diego, where the coast is most highly populated. The highest vulnerability areas are typically lower-lying beach areas. The low risk, least vulnerable areas generally occur at rocky headlands along cliffed coasts where the coastal slope is steep, relative sea-level is falling, tide range is large, and wave energy is lower. Examples of these areas are the northern coast of Washington, Monterey, and Cape Mendocino, California.


Figure 3. The Coast Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the U.S.

References
Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region.

National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: Preliminary Results for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast (USGS, 2000).

Jeff Masters

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826. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Rainfall during past 24 hrs ending at 0830 hrs IST of 24th June 2009

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places occurred over Saurashtra & Kutch, Chief amount of rainfall (≥ 7 cm) are given below:

Sutrapada-17, Veraval-17, Mangrol-15, Ranavav-10, Porbandar-7, Kalyanpur-7.

---
Rainfall totals from Depression ARB01-2009 (93A). Measures in centimeters...

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Thanks Patrap.

I live about two hours east of Chicago and it feels like Houston here today. It's one of those days you keep your eyes open for those twirly things. I've never seen that before.
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Sheeesh..


Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 2:55 PM CDT on June 24, 2009
Mostly Cloudy
103.5 °F
Mostly Cloudy
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his wife is the one with the money....
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Quoting presslord:
Well...well...well...

It seems my glorious Governor got caught with his pants down...


*Puts a request in on the radio for Queen...*
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Our best shot at precip in 20 days hopefully will find us Uptown.

Torrid,

..was 101 F earlier

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And the heat rolls on in Houston...

Grogan's Mill, The Woodlands, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago
100.4 F
Clear
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 71 F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Pressure: 29.81 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 109 F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 6.2 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 139 ft

-------
Record Report
Statement as of 2:31 PM CDT on June 24, 2009


... Record high temperature update for Houston intercontinental...
... New record high temperature for hobby Airport...

Houston Intercontinental Airport has recorded 102 degrees as of 2:26
PM. The previous record high temperature for this date was 99
degrees set in 1980... and before that in 1944. With several hours of
heating left there is a chance that this record temperature will
increase later this afternoon.

Hobby Airport has reached 100 degrees as of 2:22 PM... which breaks
it's previous record high of 98 degrees set in 1933.

-------------
Public Information Statement
Statement as of 11:36 am CDT on June 24, 2009


... yes... it's been hot...
... yes... it's been dry...

There is no way to sugarcoat the current weather regime. It has
been hot and it has been very dry. Let's start with the
temperatures. The month is not over yet... so much can change. At
the current time... Houston is suffering through it's 7th warmest
June. At hobby Airport... this is the 6th warmest June. Galveston
is enduring it's 10th warmest June and College Station is enduring
it's 7th warmest June. To put this in perspective... the first
seven days of June were cooler than normal so the intense heat
over the last 16 days has made up the temperature deficit with
change to spare. This latest heatwave shows no sign of relenting
so the monthly average temperature will likely increase.

2009 avg temp warmest avg temp (entire month)

Iah 84.1 7th warmest 85.5 in 1998
hou 83.5 6th warmest 86.2 in 1998
gls 83.6 10th warmest 85.6 in 1881
cll 84.6 7th warmest 86.7 in 1998

The temperature climbed to 101 degrees at Intercontinental
Airport on June 23rd. The last time the Mercury climbed above 101
degrees in June was back on June 14 1998. The last time time the
temperature reached 101 degrees in Houston was on August 2 2008.
The warmest temperature ever recorded in June was 103 degrees on
June 30 1980.

The temperature in Houston has reached or exceeded 100 degrees 36
times in the month of June. There were 10 days in 1902 where the
temperature reached or exceeded 100 degrees. Back in 1980... there
were 8 days that reached or exceeded 100 degrees. More
miscellaneous trivia... there were 7 consecutive days with 100
degree heat in 1902 and 6 consecutive days in 1980. The longest
stretch of consecutive 100 degree days occurred back in 1980. The
temperature reached or exceeded 100 degrees for 14 consecutive
days between July 6 1980 and July 19 1980. The temperature also
reached 100 degrees or greater for 11 straight days between July
26 1998 and August 5 1998.

Houston - number of 100 degree days in June

10 in 1902 (7 in a row)
8 in 1980 (6 in a row)
4 in 1906
2 in 1998
2 in 1934
2 in 1930
2 in 1911

Houston - number of consecutive 100 degree days (all time)

14 07/06/1980 through 07/19/1980
11 07/26/1998 through 08/05/1998
9 06/25/1980 through 07/03/1980
8 08/29/2000 through 09/05/2000*
8 08/14/1993 through 08/21/1993
8 08/07/1962 through 08/14/1962

* all time record high temperature for Houston occurred during
this string off 100 degree days. The high temperature reached
109 degrees on September 4th 2000.

Below is a list of Houston warmest maximum temperature and warmest
minimum temperatures for june:

maximum temp minimum temp

96.3 in 1980 76.1 in 1906
96.2 in 1902 76.0 in 1953
95.7 in 1906 75.9 in 1998
95.3 in 1990 75.9 in 1958
95.1 in 1998 75.7 in 1965
95.1 in 2009 75.3 in 1944
95.1 in 2008 75.1 in 1963
94.3 in 1890 75.0 in 1964
93.8 in 1911 75.0 in 1962
93.5 in 2005 74.8 in 1981

73.0 in 2009

So it's been hot!! but it has also been dry! How dry?
Currently... Houston Intercontinental Airport has gone 30
consecutive days without measurable rain
. The driest stretch of
weather ever recorded for Houston was back in 1904. There was no
measurable rain between January 8 1904 and February 16 1904 - 40
days! Below is a table with the driest periods on record

date number of dry days

01/08/1904 - 02/17/1904 40
09/11/1917 - 10/17/1917 37
09/20/1963 - 10/25/1963 36
05/01/1937 - 06/03/1937 34
09/22/1978 - 10/24/1978 33

04/25/2009 - 06/23/2009 30*

* this ties for the 17th longest period without measurable rain.
The last time Houston went 30 days without rain was from may 3
2003 through June 1 2003.

Other communities across southeast Texas have suffered a similar
fate. College Station... Huntsville and Conroe have not recorded
measurable rainfall during June. Angleton... Bay City and Edna have
yet to receive 10 inches of rain this year. Extreme to exceptional
drought conditions are affecting parts of Jackson... Matagorda...
Wharton and Brazoria counties.

Houston has received 16.85 inches of rain in 2009. The normal
value through June 23 is 23.04 inches. This is 6.19 inches below
normal and this deficit is likely to grow. If not for the freakish
heavy rain at the end of April... the Houston area would be 10 to
12 inches of rain below normal. Since may 1... Houston has only
received 0.38 inches of rain. This is the second driest may 1
through June 23 on record. Below is a table with the five driest
may 1 through June 23 on record:

rainfall date

0.35 1906
0.38 2009
0.45 1931
1.01 1960
1.15 1901

If additional rain does not fall by the end of the month... this
will be the driest may/June rainfall total in recorded history.
Here are the five driest may/June in recorded history:

may/June rain

* 0.38 in 2009 (through June 23)

0.98 in 1931
1.78 in 1915
1.82 in 1934
1.87 in 1901
1.96 in 1906

so is there any hope for rain? How does a vague "maybe" sound? A
weak back door cold front will slide southwest toward southeast
Texas on Thursday morning. This feature could trigger some showers
across the area. The expansive ridge which has taken up residence
over southeast Texas is also forecast to shift northwest by the
end of the month. This will weaken the capping inversion and allow
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms to develop by early
July. Long range models have teased US before about the ridge
weakening and moving west. But like an unwelcome house guest... the
ridge shows no signs of leaving.

-----

Sorry about the wall'o'text
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Quoting presslord:
Well...well...well...

It seems my glorious Governor got caught with his pants down...


Sanford: 'I have been unfaithful to my wife'






..translates too..


"My Presidential Aspirations are Over"..

Babelfish,Google
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Afternoon everyone. We have major street flooding here in Lee County..



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We've been getting a good steady rain for a good hour here in PSL.
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Quoting presslord:
Well...well...well...

It seems my glorious Governor got caught with his pants down...


Hard to say he was caught... they didn't even know what country he was in...more less if he had his pants on?


ROFLMAO I stand corrected.. he told everyone she is from Argentina.. you suppose he went to meet the new in-laws?
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813. IKE
Quoting presslord:
Well...well...well...

It seems my glorious Governor got caught with his pants down...


Sanford: 'I have been unfaithful to my wife'
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A fine Speech...

He stunned um all.

Quick Resignation from the Chairmanship of the Republican Guvna's Cartel though.



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811. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
yup
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Well...well...well...

It seems my glorious Governor got caught with his pants down...
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Well I've come back this afternoon to get a light meal of grilled crow...

I'm surprised at how quickly Andres fell apart after a brief gasp of hanging on yesterday evening. The dryer, more stable air off to it's northwest was certainly the nail in the coffin once it got entrained!
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805. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

"FERIA" has weakened into a tropical depression after traversing Mindoro.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
===========================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Feria (Nangka) located at 14.0°N 120.4°E 80 kms west of Ambulong, Batangashas 10 minutes sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 knots).

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Northern Mindoro
2.Lubang Is.
3.Batangas
4.Cavite
5.Bataan
6.Zambales
7.Metro Manila

Visayas Region
-------------
1.None

Mindanao Region
----------------
1.None

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Tropical Depression "FERIA" may reintensify into a storm over the South China Sea.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 a.m. tomorrow.
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804. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (T0904)
3:00 AM JST June 25 2009
===================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon In The South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nangka (996 hPa) located at 14.5N 119.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 11 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 18.2N 118.4E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.8N 117.5E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 24.8N 119.4E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1)
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2



This is the closest thing I can find to a decent BLOB anywhere.
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In this Radar Image,..one can see the GOM Sea Breeze rolling in near Gulfport and the Miss Coast..to inland.

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It is officially a slow day.

Hummm, need a nap, try this :)

Boredom and Consciousness
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Downdrafts from those 2 cells hitting the ground making a Lil Boundary ahead of them.

Typical Summertime stuff..just further north now.

See them daily here on the Radars in the South.





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When you animate the current Chicago radar in composite mode you see a "shock wave" preceding westward from cells that are building and moving sse. What is that?
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R.I.P. Andres Link

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009

...ANDRES IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANDRES NO LONGER HAS THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE REMNANT LOW OF ANDRES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145
MILES...230 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND
ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.5N 107.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

off topic- Republican Gov. Sanford admits extramarital affair
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Gasp..a Blob :)

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Quoting Seastep:


Shear Tendency

From here


Thanks!
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humidex 97f
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Quoting 69Viking:
Wow the blog has slowed to a crawl. Can someone post the shear tendencies for the GOM? I seem to have lost my link.


Link
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Current Conditions


Pecan Grove, Richmond, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 17 sec ago
99.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 35%
Dew Point: 67 °F
Wind: 1.0 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: 29.81 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 104 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 87 ft

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Looks like a very strong wave to come off Africa in about 5 days.
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Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 8 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy

Current Temp 101.7 F

Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.85 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 98 %
Visibility: 8.0 miles


Active Advisory: Excessive Heat Warning

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The excessive heat and humidity will make a dangerous combination
for individuals if proper precautions are not taken. Excessive
heat kills people by taxing the human body beyond its abilities
to cool itself. In a normal year... about 175 americans die from
the heat.

This is a dangerous situation. Children... the elderly... and
people with chronic ailments are usually the first to suffer from
the heat. Heat exhaustion... heat cramps... or in extreme cases...
heat stroke may result from prolonged exposure to these
conditions. Friends... relatives... or neighbors should check on
people at risk.

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Quoting hurricanefiend85:
the info you guys (StormW, Levi32, Hur09, wea456 [plus many others]) post is very informative and at the very least entertaining, even if it is just conjecture at times


Umm, at times? You realize it is ALL conjecture? Don't drink the kool-aid.

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It currently however says the threat is low.
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Quoting Drakoen:


And for those who want to know what that text says...basically it mentions marginally favorable shear and warm SSTs for the West Caribbean, GOMEX, and SE Coast area and there is some potential for subtropical/tropical development.
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WU's links page under "helpful resources"
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; Subtropical areas
Examples of subtropical cities and areas around the world include:

In Africa
North Africa: Algiers, Algeria; Cairo, Egypt; Casablanca, Morocco; Tripoli, Libya; Tunis, Tunisia; Las Palmas, Spain (European Union)
Southern Africa: Cape Town, Durban and East London, South Africa; Maseru, Lesotho
In The Americas
The United States: Atlanta, Georgia; Charleston, South Carolina; Dallas, Texas; Houston, Texas; Las Vegas, Nevada; Los Angeles, California; New Orleans, Louisiana; Orlando, Florida; Phoenix, Arizona; Raleigh, North Carolina; San Jose, California; Savannah, Georgia; Tucson, Arizona; Austin, Texas; San Antonio, Texas; Jacksonville, Florida; Richmond, Virginia; Memphis, Tennessee; Tampa, Florida; Nashville, Tennessee; Little Rock, Arkansas
Latin America: Buenos Aires, Argentina; Montevideo, Uruguay; Santiago, Chile; São Paulo, Brazil;
In
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SJ's link page
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Quoting 69Viking:
Wow the blog has slowed to a crawl. Can someone post the shear tendencies for the GOM? I seem to have lost my link.


Shear Tendency

From here
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It has been raining heavily in cape coral, fl for the past 2 hours. My rain gauge is at 3.52 inches and still falling hard. Looking at local doppler it might not stop for another 2-4 hours.
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779. BtnTx
Baytown TX:
99.0 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 35%
Dew Point: 67 °F
Wind: 0.0 mphfrom the SSW
Wind Gust: 4.9 mph
Pressure: 29.77 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 104 °F
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Wow the blog has slowed to a crawl. Can someone post the shear tendencies for the GOM? I seem to have lost my link.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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