Dust forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:58 PM GMT on June 20, 2009

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There will be less African dust than usual over the tropical Atlantic during this year's hurricane season, according to a new experimental dust forecast issued by Dr. Amato Evan of the University of Wisconsin. Dr. Evan used a statistical model that correlated levels of dust activity in past years with rainfall over the Sahel region of Africa and a natural regional wind pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). He forecasts that dust levels over the Main Development Region (MDR, 8 - 20°N & 15 - 65°W) for Atlantic hurricanes during this year's hurricane season will be similar to last year's below-average levels, thanks in large part to plentiful rains over the Sahel region of Africa during the 2008 rainy season (Figure 1). However, the dust levels expected this year do not approach the record lows seen in 1994 and 2005. Dust forecasts made in May or June are skillful going out five months, with a skill 11 - 16% better than a "no-skill" forecast using climatology.


Figure 1. Rainfall over the Sahel region of Africa was generally 50 - 100 mm (2 - 4 inches) above average during the 2008 rainy season (about 20 - 80% above average). The heavy rains promoted vigorous vegetation growth in 2009, resulting in less bare ground capable of generating dust. Image credit: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.

The Sahara and the Sahel: significant sources of dust
The summertime dust that affects Atlantic tropical storms originates over the southwestern Sahara (18° - 22° N) and the northwestern Sahel (15° - 18° N) (Figure 2). The dust that originates in the Southwest Sahara stays relatively constant from year to year. However, the dust from the northwestern Sahel varies significantly from year to year, and understanding this variation may be a key factor in improving our forecasts of seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The amount of dust that gets transported over the Atlantic depends on a mix of three main factors: the large scale and local scale weather patterns (windy weather transports more dust), how wet the current rainy season is (wet weather will wash out dust before it gets transported over the Atlantic), and how dry and drought-damaged the soil is. The level of drought experienced in the northwestern Sahel during the previous year's rainy season (June - October) is the key factor of the three in determining how much dust gets transported over the Atlantic during hurricane season, according to a January 2004 study published in Geophysical Research Letters published by C. Moulin and I. Chiapello. A dry rainy season the previous year will make an expanded area of loose soil which can create dust. It is also possible that the corresponding changes in vegetation can alter the regional weather patterns, causing more dust production.


Figure 2. Map of the mean summer dust optical thickness derived from satellite measurements between 1979 and 2000. Maximum dust amounts originate in the northern Sahel (15° to 18° N) and the Sahara (18° to 22° N). The Bodele depression in Chad is also an active dust source. Image credit: Evidence of the control of summer atmospheric transport of African dust over the Atlantic by Sahel sources from TOMS satellites (1979-2000) by C. Moulin and I. Chiapello, published in January 2004 in Geophysical Research Letters.

How dust suppresses hurricanes
Dust acts as a shield which keeps sunlight from reaching the surface. Thus, large amounts of dust can keep the sea surface temperatures up to 1°C cooler than average in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) off the coast of Africa, providing hurricanes with less energy to form and grow. Dust also affects the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), an layer of dry, dusty Saharan air that rides up over the low-level moist air over the tropical Atlantic. At the boundary between the SAL and low-level moist air where the trade winds blow is the trade wind inversion--a region of the atmosphere where the temperature increases with height. Since atmospheric temperature normally decreases with height, this "inversion" acts to but the brakes on any thunderstorms that try to punch through it. This happens because the air in a thunderstorm's updraft suddenly encounters a region where the updraft air is cooler and less buoyant than the surrounding air, and thus will not be able to keep moving upward. The dust in the SAL absorbs solar radiation, which heats the air in the trade wind inversion. This makes the inversion stronger, which inhibits the thunderstorms that power a hurricane. The dust may also act to interfere with the formation of cloud drops and rain drops that these thunderstorms need to grow, but little is known about such effects. It is possible that dust may act to help hurricanes by serving as "condensation nuclei"--centers around which raindrops can form and grow.

For additional reading
Dr. Evan published a study in Science magazine this March showing that 69% of the increase in Atlantic sea surface temperatures over the past 26 years could be attributed to decreases in the amount of dust in the atmosphere.

Jeff Masters

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30-day sst forecast.

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Quoting extreme236:


Its very well organized.


To me - its not that well organised.

Hasn't quite got the convection on all fronts.
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Interesting points on the low SAL and the high water temps,( positives) and the high sheer.(negative)
But beer in mind, so far in the Atl, there has not been a really decent wave to put matters to the test, as yet.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23891
any one noted that the HD TV are takeing overe
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


That's low to mid 80's, isn't it?
around or near 86f ws
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Quoting WeatherStudent:


That's low to mid 80's, isn't it?


yea 86F
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OK, went to the cimss site. All other imagery is good. But the SAL one are not coming up. Just text.
Must be an internal glitch with my machine ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23891
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


*dies from shock*

Its not a very organised storm is it?


Its very well organized.
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Quoting Weather456:
Amazing;



Those SST's are way higher in the Bahama's and the GOMEX than this time 2005. I think systems this year will form close to home. And the scary part is, those SST's that are hot as could be are in the place were Andrew exploded.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23494
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.A


FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE
FORMING.
ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THIS REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



*dies from shock*

Its not a very organised storm is it?
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Quoting Tazmanian:




where did all the SAL go
not sure taz but iam very concearn at how low it is if the shear dies off there could be some big trouble later shear is only thing thats stopping anything at the moment
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
431. DDR
Theres a fairly large plume coming off africa
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1670
heres pacfic sal map
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Quoting extreme236:


Not if the wind shear isnt optimal.



thats ture
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
worked for me pottery here ya go




where did all the SAL go
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Quoting pottery:
Cannot open the SAL Analysis images page (cimss) since 2 days ago. Anyone know why ?



If you some kind of software that you upgraded or installed at the same time it occured? They maybe blocking the webiste.

Try loading this link in more than one broswers - it might be the broswer

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg

It maybe also a broken link from the old CIMSS site, try going to the new one.
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Quoting Tazmanian:


but at the same time they will be big CAT 4 and 5 storms


Not if the wind shear isnt optimal.
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Thanks Keeper.
I am getting pages of script when I try to open.
Maybe my link is bad or something.
Will try again from the beginning.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23891
423. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Trinidad-
temp 91 f
heat index 97f
humid. 48%

hey pal,
It feels hotter than that!
Where are our afternoon t-storms?
We'll be getting some more rain by tuesday.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1670
WS,

30C
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Quoting pottery:
Cannot open the SAL Analysis images page (cimss) since 2 days ago. Anyone know why ?

worked for me pottery here ya go
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Quoting extreme236:


Might be nice to get some tropical systems out there to help cool down those waters.


but at the same time they will be big CAT 4 and 5 storms
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and i find it Amazing that the nhc is takeing to long to make 93E in too a TD or name storm
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Trinidad-
temp 91 f
heat index 97f
humid. 48%
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23891
Photobucket


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/CORN
BELT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING UPR HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LWR MS VLY WILL RETROGRADE WWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND BUILD NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY
ON MONDAY. ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...CIRCULATION AROUND A
WRN ATLC BASIN CYCLONE WILL SEND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWD ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...UPR LOW TURNING NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL SPREAD NEWD...GLANCING OFF NRN PARTS OF THE RIDGE...INTO SCNTRL
CANADA DURING THE DAY2 PD. AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF BACKDOOR CDFNTS
WILL SETTLE SWD ALONG THE ATLC CST...BUT PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHOULD EXIST FROM GA NWWD INTO THE MIDWEST. TAIL END OF THE FRONT
WILL BE REDEVELOPING NWD AS A WRMFNT...INTERSECTING WITH A WEAK
CDFNT/LEE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...NRN PLAINS/CORN BELT...
A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS THE UPR MS
VLY EARLY MONDAY...ALONG/N OF THE SURGING WRMFNT THAT WILL MARK THE
LEADING EDGE OF INCREASED CAPPING/HOT BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ITS
WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H5/H7 TEMPS WARMING AOA MINUS 6/PLUS 12
DEG C RESPECTIVELY WILL BE HOSTILE TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
OVER SRN NEB AND SRN IA MONDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...AS THE NRN ROCKIES
UPR SYSTEM EJECTS NEWD TOWARD SCNTRL CANADA...UPR RIDGE FLATTENS AND
MID-LVL TEMPERATURES COOL 1-2 DEG C OVER ESPECIALLY THE WRN/CNTRL
DKTS...BUT PERHAPS AS FAR SE AS NRN NEB/NWRN IA BY MONDAY EVENING.
SFC DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID-60S TO MID-70S F AND WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A SFC-BASED TSTM THREAT
FROM THE WRN/CNTRL DKTS /ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH-CDFNT/ SEWD INTO NRN
NEB AND NWRN IA /INVOF WRMFNT/. SHOULD STORMS FORM...35-40 KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR AND MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS. A COUPLE SMALL MCS/S MAY
EVOLVE MONDAY NIGHT...DVLPG EWD INTO WRN MN AND CNTRL/ERN IA.
ACTIVITY MAY POSE A HAIL/HIGH WIND RISKS AFT DARK...ESP ACROSS THE
CORN BELT.

...FL...
INCREASING DEEP-NORTHERLIES ARE PROGGED ACROSS FL MONDAY AFTN AS
DISTURBANCES DIG SWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN ATLANTIC UPR
LOW. LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THOUGH RELATIVELY WARM MID-LVLS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OF LIMITING FACTOR...ADDED LARGE SCALE LIFT INVOF THE
SEABREEZES/WEAK CDFNT SHOULD COMPENSATE AND SCTD TSTMS SHOULD DVLP
EARLY/MID-AFTN. GIVEN THE FLOW REGIME...CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO SWD MOVING CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS/HAIL. AN
ISOLD TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON STORM MODE/MOVEMENT IN
RELATION TO SEABREEZES/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.


..RACY.. 06/21/2009




South Florida could see some explosive severe weather tomorrow.
Depending on how the impulses roll through.
That's something the models have a hard time forecasting.....stay tuned.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
408. Basically we have the second tropical cyclone of the EPAC season
yep and maybe a third one later in the week but chances are low for that one less than 30 percent
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Quoting Weather456:
Amazing;



Might be nice to get some tropical systems out there to help cool down those waters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cannot open the SAL Analysis images page (cimss) since 2 days ago. Anyone know why ?

Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23891
Amazing;

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408. Basically we have the second tropical cyclone of the EPAC season
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Quoting stoormfury:
nice spin in atl tropical wave


Link


There's not anything there....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.A


FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE
FORMING.
ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THIS REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
T.C.F.A

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Looks like the Atlantic is nice and quiet. Maybe next month some of that EPAC activity will spill over into our basin, but we'll see. 93E continues to look more impressive, almost as if an inner core circulation is forming on the visible images.
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Port Charlotte, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago

96.1 %
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 51%
Dew Point: 75 %
Wind: 3.6 mph from the WSW

Wind Gust: 3.6 mph
Pressure: 29.83 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 109
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0.0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 3400 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 8 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
... Excessive heat continues for parts of southeast South Carolina
and southeast Georgia...

The following is a collection of unofficial maximum heat indices
/degrees fahrenheit/ observed across the area through 115 PM. A
heat advisory remains in effect for parts of the area through 8 PM
this evening. Heat indices were obtained from various sources
including NWS/FAA Airport observations... fire weather RAWS
observations and quality controlled mesonet observations.

... Southeast South Carolina...
Savannah natl wildlife Refuge /RAWS/... . 112
Bluffton... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 108
Kiawah Island... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 107
Witherbee /RAWS/... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 105
Beaufort mcas /knbc/... ... ... ... ... ... .. 105
Bennetts Point /acxs1/... ... ... ... ... ... 103
west Ashley... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 102
Charleston Airport /kchs/... ... ... ... ... 101

... Southeast Georgia...
hunter Army airfield /ksvn/... ... ... ... . 108
midway /Liberty co RAWS/... ... ... ... ... . 107
Walthourville... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 107
Hilton Head... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 104
Fort Stewart /klhw/... ... ... ... ... ... ... 103
Metter /RAWS/... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 103
Savannah Airport /ksav/... ... ... ... ... .. 102
Sylvania /kjyl/... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 102
Sapelo Island /saxg1/... ... ... ... ... ... . 102
Ossabaw Island /gaemn mesonet/... ... ... . 102

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:
FM, which model is bringing up that storm from the Carib and it has it hitting South Florida several days from now? All of this based of course on your Tropical Update video.


NOGAPS
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Heat Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
422 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2009

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-220000-/O.EXT.KMLB.HT.Y.0002.090621T1400Z-090622T000 0Z/INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DELAND...LEESBURG...ORLANDO...SANFORD...MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...KISSIMMEE...ST CLOUD...VERO BEACH...OKEECHOBEE...FORTPIERCE...HOBE SOUND...DAYTONA BEACH...CLERMONT...TITUSVILLE
422 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2009
...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES...NEIGHBORS AND PETS. IF POSSIBLE...CONDUCT ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EARLY IN THE MORNING OR LATE IN THE EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
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IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS...WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT...LIGHT COLORED
CLOTHING...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...SLOW DOWN AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS. DO NOT DRINK ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES.


No Sunday afternoon cold beer?! You gotta be kidding me.
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I'm between these two places, tho it is probably several degrees cooler where I am at the beach, more like Ponce Inlet than Edgewater.
Florida Shores, Edgewater, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 9 min 53 sec ago
96.0 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 58%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 29.78 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 114 °F
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 7.7 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 6 ft

Daytona Beach (Ponce Inlet), FL, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 33 min 38 sec ago
95.0 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 56%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.85 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 110 °F
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 12 ft

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Ike. I will be paying close attention to the updated you guys, and girls, put out here. Was alot of help last year
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009


...AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
ENTIRE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...


... A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CDT UNTIL 7 PM
CDT MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
ALONG WITH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES THAT TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO 108 TO
114 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-220030-
/O.CON.KMOB.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090622T1500Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.HT.Y.0004.090622T1500Z-090623T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRICHARD...SARALAND...TILLMANS CORNER...
THEODORE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...
PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...
ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT
MONDAY...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
MONDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT
MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 99 TO 103 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES.
MEANWHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 80S TONIGHT.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED AGAIN ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...
AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS...WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT...LIGHT COLORED
CLOTHING...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...SLOW DOWN AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS. DO NOT DRINK ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES.

&&
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


South of where we live...yes...water temps near 87 degrees. Not right at the coast though. It's only near 80 at the NW Fl. beaches.


ike when do you think the wind shear and the high over the eastern gulf will move out and make things more conductive.
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Is anyone buying the idea of severe weather in florida tomorrow? What is the likelihood of these supposed storms firing up?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.