Vortex2 tornado study finally gets some twisters to study

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:56 PM GMT on June 08, 2009

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A proven way to reduce the incidence of dangerous weather phenomena is to schedule a multi-million dollar field experiment to study the phenomena. Up until this past weekend, that has certainly been true of this year's $10 million Vortex2 tornado study. The 7-week study (which also runs next year) has deployed an armada of over 100 storm chasing vehicles across the Great Plains this Spring, but has largely been frustrated by an exceptionally quiet tornado season. Tornado activity in May was less than half of what was observed last year in May, thanks to a ridge of high pressure that has dominated the weather. The residents of Tornado Alley ran out of luck over the weekend, though, as a strong low pressure system and associated cold front brought severe weather and multiple tornadoes to the region. Sixteen tornado reports were received by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center yesterday, and three on Friday. The team of University of Michigan students that has been writing our featured Vortex2 blog caught some excellent pictures of tornadoes on both Friday and Sunday. Yesterday was probably the last best chance for the Vortex2 project to document a strong tornado, since the project ends this Saturday and no significant tornado outbreaks appear likely for the remainder of this week.

Aurora, Colorado tornado yesterday
A tornado with a 3/4 mile wide debris cloud swept through Aurora, Colorado yesterday, staying on the ground for 8 - 11 miles and damaging a shopping mall, but causing no deaths or injuries. The tornado passed close to one of the high-resolution Terminal Doppler Weather Radars (TDWRs) that we now feature on our web site (see the radar FAQ for more details on these great new additions to our radar offerings). Posted below are the reflectivity and Doppler velocity images from the tornado, showing the amazing fine-scale details these high-resolution radars offer.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) from the Denver, Colorado Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), which caught the classic signature of a supercell thunderstorm tornado over Aurora, Colorado. A tornado dropped down from the low-level mesocyclone inside the parent supercell thunderstorm at the time of these images. Yellow colors located right next to greens/blues indicate that winds are moving towards and away from the radar in close proximity, the signature of strong rotation at low levels. Also visible on the plot are the winds spreading out from a downdraft on the rear side of the tornado. Black arrows denote the direction of wind flow. The dryline was bent back into a E-W orientation near Denver, creating an area of moisture convergence, which triggered thunderstorm formation.

Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week
As area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean has brought rains of 2 - 3 inches over portions of Nicaragua and Honduras over the past few days. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and no computer models are indicating that the disturbance will develop this week.

Jeff Masters, with help from wunderground's tornado expert, Dr. Rob Carver

Dying out after an official 24 minutes on the ground
Tornado (Fungus)
Tornado
Twisted (rrose1)
This was taken approximately 30 minutes after a brief tornado passed through South Hutchinson, KS tonight. The building is a bus manufacturing facility.
Twisted

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487. beell
retention
Definition: memory
Synonyms: recall, recognition, recollection, remembrance, retentiveness
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that pulse of rain off our coast better stay where it is. The ground needs time to dry, otherwise we will again have flooding problems.
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inharmonious

adjective

not harmonious; discordant, in conflict, etc.




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all XP ueser there will be no more window XP by the year 2014


Support lifecycle

Support for Windows XP without a service pack ended on 30 September 2004[62] and support for Windows XP Service Pack 1 and 1a ended on 10 October 2006.[63][64]

Windows XP Service Pack 2 will be retired on 13 July 2010, almost six years after its general availability.[2] As per Microsoft's posted timetable, the company stopped general licensing of Windows XP to OEMs and terminated retail sales of the operating system on 30 June 2008, 17 months after the release of Windows Vista.[65][66] However, an exception was announced on 3 April 2008, for OEMs installing to ultra low-cost PCs (ULCPCs) either until 30 June 2010, or one year after the availability of the next client version of Windows, Windows 7—whichever date comes later.[67][68][69]

On 14 April 2009, Windows XP and its family of operating systems were moved from Mainstream Support to the Extended Support phase as it marks the progression of the legacy operating system through the Microsoft Support Lifecycle Policy. During the Extended Support Phase, Microsoft will continue to provide security updates every month for Windows XP, however free technical support, warranty claims and design changes are no longer being offered.

On 8 April 2014, all Windows XP support, including security updates and security-related hotfixes will be terminated.



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Quoting futuremet:


How much faster is the new firefox Tazzy?




%200 faster then the old firfoxs 3.0 and %300 faster then IE 8


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I am thinking the 22nd...not that I am in any contest for the first named storm or anything:)
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479. beell
Quoting Levi32:


It may, and it may not. The wave is pretty weak, but there is an 850mb vort max at the base of it near 74 west. The wave may provide a trigger for another surface feature to form in the western Caribbean, but it is hard to say right now whether it would have a chance at developing. We still have to wait 6-10 days for nearly ideal conditions to support development.


That particular vort max has been there for a while. Here is the same chart from 18Z yesterday.



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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Nothing will form before 23 June just looking at all the facts. yes there will be rain, yes there will be thunderstorms, yes there may even be another blob but that is all that it will be. Now in 10-15 days, after we get all this heating, things start to dry out, the Gulf really spikes in temp, then we may have our first TS of the year.


I am thinking the 27th :)
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Not very impressive at this hour...but who knows...

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NAM 18z is actually reviving this system. However it is currently inharmonious with other model forecasts.

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting Tazmanian:
Firefox 3.5 Release Candidate comeing soon on june 10th



Firefox is the best!



How much faster is the new firefox Tazzy?
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
We finally got a good soaking around 6pm in Pompano , came out of the northwest.
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Firefox 3.5 Release Candidate comeing soon on june 10th



Firefox is the best!

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Had early day T-Storms in West Palm / Lake Worth area..but afternoon storms fizzleed out before reaching the coast.
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Here is what makes me wonder, we have had multiple vortexes over south florida this afternoon and no rain.
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Stormpetrol I know the feeling.
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Just keep watching the former SW Caribbean Blob, surprising what might pop up in the next 24 hrs, if not I'll blame it on too many Amstel Light.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
LOL. Storms or no storms I think we'll be alright.

Ike Baby Boom Hits Texas
News KBMT

Amazing how you pas the time when the powers out.

Lol. Cute story. :)
Link


lol We've had a baby boom up here in Ohio thanks to Ike too.
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LOL. Storms or no storms I think we'll be alright.

Ike Baby Boom Hits Texas
News KBMT

Amazing how you pass the time when the powers out.

Lol. Cute story. :)
Link
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Levi do you think the tropical wave moving that direction will enhance development potential?


It may, and it may not. The wave is pretty weak, but there is an 850mb vort max at the base of it near 74 west. The wave may provide a trigger for another surface feature to form in the western Caribbean, but it is hard to say right now whether it would have a chance at developing. We still have to wait 6-10 days for nearly ideal conditions to support development.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Nothing will form before 23 June just looking at all the facts. yes there will be rain, yes there will be thunderstorms, yes there may even be another blob but that is all that it will be. Now in 10-15 days, after we get all this heating, things start to dry out, the Gulf really spikes in temp, then we may have our first TS of the year.
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Levi do you think the tropical wave moving that direction will enhance development potential?
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
any more rain for jamaica coming soon?


Most likely yes. Showers and thunderstorms will probably be dominating the western Caribbean for several days due to the upper low and trough in the area.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting CybrTeddy:


NEVER give anything a 0% chance.
There is a 0% chance that I am getting off at 6:10pm today. (its 6:08pm right now)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5883
Quoting jeffs713:

And we have an MJO pulse at the sme time.


Yup precisely.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting Levi32:


Yup, this particular disturbance may not be the one, but this is the pattern setting up that I've been talking about since last week. The next 5-15 days will be the best chance at a tropical cyclone this June.

And we have an MJO pulse at the same time.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5883
any more rain for jamaica coming soon?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


NEVER give anything a 0% chance. Shear is lessening.

I am an all or nothing forecaster. In my job if I dropped a 30% or 60% chance in my briefings, I would get fired. It is either 0% or 100% and in this case I can rest easy knowing nothing will form over the next 10-15 days.
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419 yeah thew Epac hasn't had a super active year since i started tracking. still it's el nino meaning warmer waters in the pacific so there's hope for hurricane rick
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


NEVER give anything a 0% chance. Shear is lessening.

very true, never write off mother nature
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stillwaiting...sorry to hear about your friend. I hope all turns out well. The human body does amazing things to recover from horrible accidents.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
0% chance for anything to form until at least the last week of June. I just dont see the long term pattern setting up over the next 1-2 weeks being favorable for development. You can watch blobs for the next two weeks fizzle out just like this last one did.


NEVER give anything a 0% chance. Shear is lessening.
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Quoting Vortex95:
You may have somthing there Levi let us see what transpires by thurs/fri.


Yup, this particular disturbance may not be the one, but this is the pattern setting up that I've been talking about since last week. The next 10-20 days will be the best chance at a tropical cyclone this June.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
0% chance for anything to form until at least the last week of June. I just dont see the long term pattern setting up over the next 1-2 weeks being favorable for development. You can watch blobs for the next two weeks fizzle out just like this last one did.
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Quoting Weather456:
Oh ok. I know it was raining in Montego Bay.

nothing really in kingston
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Good analysis there, Levi. I actually learned something today! YAY!

On a side note, that is an interesting wind pattern setting up on the western coast of the Yucatan in the BOC. 30 knot winds, with one side blowing from the south, but the other side blowing from the NNE. Definitely not something I've noticed on an elongated low pressure/trough.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5883
446. 7544
se fla getting another round right now and loooks whats to the south mmore coming soon stay dry
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Quoting Weather456:
Levi, that is the trough split you've been commenting on. Most of the global models linger the resultant upper low and shifts into the Yucatana by next weekend.


Exactly.....I tried to tell Drak it was a trough-split...lol
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
I think you've got it Levi. But I'll put my 2 maybe 1 cent in I think it separates further with the low you mentioned moving off to the s.w. and its Tutt, that's why 91 ain't looking so good today welcome to the shear. Any excitement still a day or two away. At least this blob watching is just fun. I learned more over the blob controversy the last two weeks then in awhile. That's not saying much.
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Oh this is just too good. The 18z GFS is catching on!

Look at it form the cut-off like I just mentioned in the western Caribbean at 72 hours:



Now watch that puppy back away to the SW over Mexico! That leaves the ridge building into the Caribbean and whop! Look at this pretty picture sitting there at 174 hours:



That, folks, is a classic trough-split, upper low pulling away, ventilating the western Caribbean and setting the area up for tropical development, provided there is a trigger in place.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Good illustration of shear. You can see the lower-level clouds moving east to west, while the upper-level clouds are streaming from the southwest to northeast.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5883
Levi, that is the trough split you've been commenting on. Most of the global models linger the resultant upper low and shifts into the Yucatana by next weekend.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
439. 7544
interesting loop there
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Vortex2 on youtube. One appears to have been grabbed from TWC in Lansing, hence the local forecast :)

Link

Link

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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