Vortex2 tornado study finally gets some twisters to study

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:56 PM GMT on June 08, 2009

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A proven way to reduce the incidence of dangerous weather phenomena is to schedule a multi-million dollar field experiment to study the phenomena. Up until this past weekend, that has certainly been true of this year's $10 million Vortex2 tornado study. The 7-week study (which also runs next year) has deployed an armada of over 100 storm chasing vehicles across the Great Plains this Spring, but has largely been frustrated by an exceptionally quiet tornado season. Tornado activity in May was less than half of what was observed last year in May, thanks to a ridge of high pressure that has dominated the weather. The residents of Tornado Alley ran out of luck over the weekend, though, as a strong low pressure system and associated cold front brought severe weather and multiple tornadoes to the region. Sixteen tornado reports were received by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center yesterday, and three on Friday. The team of University of Michigan students that has been writing our featured Vortex2 blog caught some excellent pictures of tornadoes on both Friday and Sunday. Yesterday was probably the last best chance for the Vortex2 project to document a strong tornado, since the project ends this Saturday and no significant tornado outbreaks appear likely for the remainder of this week.

Aurora, Colorado tornado yesterday
A tornado with a 3/4 mile wide debris cloud swept through Aurora, Colorado yesterday, staying on the ground for 8 - 11 miles and damaging a shopping mall, but causing no deaths or injuries. The tornado passed close to one of the high-resolution Terminal Doppler Weather Radars (TDWRs) that we now feature on our web site (see the radar FAQ for more details on these great new additions to our radar offerings). Posted below are the reflectivity and Doppler velocity images from the tornado, showing the amazing fine-scale details these high-resolution radars offer.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) from the Denver, Colorado Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), which caught the classic signature of a supercell thunderstorm tornado over Aurora, Colorado. A tornado dropped down from the low-level mesocyclone inside the parent supercell thunderstorm at the time of these images. Yellow colors located right next to greens/blues indicate that winds are moving towards and away from the radar in close proximity, the signature of strong rotation at low levels. Also visible on the plot are the winds spreading out from a downdraft on the rear side of the tornado. Black arrows denote the direction of wind flow. The dryline was bent back into a E-W orientation near Denver, creating an area of moisture convergence, which triggered thunderstorm formation.

Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week
As area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean has brought rains of 2 - 3 inches over portions of Nicaragua and Honduras over the past few days. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and no computer models are indicating that the disturbance will develop this week.

Jeff Masters, with help from wunderground's tornado expert, Dr. Rob Carver

Dying out after an official 24 minutes on the ground
Tornado (Fungus)
Tornado
Twisted (rrose1)
This was taken approximately 30 minutes after a brief tornado passed through South Hutchinson, KS tonight. The building is a bus manufacturing facility.
Twisted

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987. auburn (Mod)
MUST SEE!!!

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Don't know whether it could just be the convective development tricking my eyes, but it seems there's some mid-level circulation becoming well established with the Western Caribbean disturbance that exited Nicaragua overnight.
Disturbance Visible Satellite Loop
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NexSat, Southeast Coast,Loop
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looks like la nina forming indeed!!!!
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983. JRRP
2006
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Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity


The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).


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Ike,my brother:the nhc surface has the area offshore SC dissapting on the current surface maps,we'll have plenty to watch come the end of june,imo...with a busy,early ATL TC season starting:)
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980. beell
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979. IKE
Complete 84 hr. 12Z NAM run.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Looks like the CAPE may help out Vortex 2day



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977. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
The reason the NAM has TC development is because of the speed at which it ejects the upper level low to Latin America. This creates a favorable upper level diffluent flow aloft. Same reason the ECMWF has a low in the Caribbean as well.


That's what I was just watching...it shoots that ULL down to Belize area...

If those models are correct, it could get interesting....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
shear w/be dropping over the western carib in the next 120hrs,spreading north into the GOM area in 168,IMO...something is coming mid-late month better than 70% chance,if all comes together the way it looks right now,I've got june 22 for the first named storm,said it about 1 1/2 months ago when we were all on here guessing :)
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The reason the NAM has TC development is because of the speed at which it ejects the upper level low to Latin America. This creates a favorable upper level diffluent flow aloft. Same reason the ECMWF has a low in the Caribbean as well.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30351
974. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:
Good morning,

One interesting thing I'm starting to notice with the ENSO... but I believe the current weak El Nino to Neutral conditions will actually become more Neutral than anything else. I've started to notice some cooling in the East Pacific after it warmed up quite a bit. I personally will lean more towards a Neutral year for 09.


That could have huge implications in the numbers for the Atlantic.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good morning,

One interesting thing I'm starting to notice with the ENSO... but I believe the current weak El Nino to Neutral conditions will actually become more Neutral than anything else. I've started to notice some cooling in the East Pacific after it warmed up quite a bit. I personally will lean more towards a Neutral year for 09.
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stillwaitings 2009 atlantic TC outlook


also discusses possible TC development,all comments&questions are welcome!!!!
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Just as El Nino surprised them in 06, La Nina can surprise in 09. Seems to have been flipping back and fourth quite readily the past several years with no real rhyme or reason.


May not officially go back to La Nina but, it may lock in neutral for Hurricane season.
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970. IKE
The 12Z NAM puts a 1008 mb low, south of the Caymans in 66 hours....

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969. IKE
That area off of the GA. and SC coasts...has low shear...nice vorticity forming....LLC,ULD.....

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968. beell
So the warm front is progged to stay in place more or less. A continuing source of surface convergence across one area. And the atmosphere south of the boundary continues to get juicier. And enough cap to hold things at bay till later this afternoon.
The 13Z Day 1:



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN KANSAS
...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM NERN CO ACROSS KS/MO AND ALONG THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...AND
FROM THE MDT RISK AREA SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL OK AND INTO CNTRL AND SRN
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE EAST FROM WRN NC TO SERN
PA...

...SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND MISSOURI TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING ACROSS
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER TX AND THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SRN STREAM...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM
AZ/NM THIS MORNING TO MO BY TONIGHT. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM KS/OK EWD ACROSS
MO TO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NRN OK/ERN KS AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY
LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO
LATER TODAY.

A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
INTO QUEBEC CANADA TODAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL PASS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA WITH RESIDUAL/WEAKENING STATIONARY PORTION
OF THIS FRONT REMAINING ALONG THE OH VALLEY. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS DELMARVA REGION LATER TODAY.

...NRN OK/SRN-CNTRL KS AND INTO WRN MO...
A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO THE
OK/KS BORDER. TSTMS...ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WERE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS KS THIS MORNING AS MASS TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALONG THE EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT
AS VERY UNSTABLE TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM SRN/CNTRL KS SWD ACROSS OK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CAPPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY FUELING ELEVATED STORMS FROM KS INTO MO...AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR THIS AREA...SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION AS STORMS INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT/INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED AS CAP IS
BREACHED THROUGH A COMBINATION OF WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE/TRIPLE-POINT LOW AND
WARM FRONT
...SOMEWHERE NEAR SRN KS/NRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA SHOULD ALSO LIE NEAR THE SWRN/SRN FLANK OF RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...IN A REGION WHERE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT MAY BE STRENGTHENED AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG/
AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS RESULTING IN 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES IN THE
RANGE OF 200-400 M2/S2...AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELLS/MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR
TWO. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE GREATEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EVOLVE AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON DISCRETE STORM
INITIATION NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES. AT THIS
POINT...THE WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE-POINT LOW ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...OR PERHAPS IN SRN/SERN KS
AT THE TIME SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
20-22 UTC.

UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO A SEVERE MCS IS LIKELY INTO THE EVENING FROM
NERN OK/ERN KS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN MO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO OR TWO WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED FRONTAL WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM KS/OK INTO CNTRL MO.

...EAST...
AIRMASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS FROM
DELMARVA NWD ACROSS ERN PA. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES/FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM CAROLINAS TO VA.
BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN MARGINALLY SHEARED FLOW. POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THESE AREAS.
GREATER PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG
LEE-TROUGH AND NEAR COLD FRONT/LEE-TROUGH INTERSECTION AND
DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM PA ACROSS DELMARVA AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS IN THESE AREAS MAY BRIEFLY ACQUIRE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHER MULTICELLULAR
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME WIND/MARGINAL HAIL BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.

...ERN CO/WRN KS...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG/ IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS ERN CO. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND MODEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD PROMOTE STORM
INITIATION AS WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS OVERCOME. RESULTING
STORMS WILL DRIFT EAST INTO HELICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE
SURFACE/LEE LOW AIDING STORM INFLOW AND SOME TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...CNTRL OK SWWD ALONG TX DRYLINE...
AN ENSEMBLE OF VARIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXTENSIVE TX DRYLINE FROM SPS/ABI
AREAS SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. WHILE THIS ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN
CAPPED BY STOUT EML...IT DOES APPEAR THAT LOCAL HEATING AND MIXING
ALONG THE GRADUALLY ADVANCING DRYLINE...ALONG WITH VERY WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ON THE LARGE SCALE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE
STORM INITIATION...ESPECIALLY IN TX. INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS
WILL LEAD TO HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN
THIS REGIME.

THREAT ACROSS CNTRL OK IS CONDITIONAL ON STORM INITIATION WHICH
APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE CAP. THIS AREA LIES
BETWEEN BETTER DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH AND STRONGER
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA ANY CONVECTION BREACHING THE
CAP WOULD POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.
THUS...CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 06/09/2009
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967. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


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966. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
(Re-posting this)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 09JUN)
=============================================
An area of convection (96W) located at 8.3N 134,1E or 70 NM north-northwest of Palau. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts poorly organized convection embedded within an easterly wave. A 0418z AMSU-B image supports the easterly wave near the surface, however the multispectral imagery shows an upper level circulation with weakening convection. Upper level analysis reveals the feature is encountering 20-30 knots of northeasterly vertical wind shear and is located under a region of weak convergence aloft.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1011 mb. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains POOR.

System #2
=========
An area of convection (97W) located at 11.8N 113.7E or 390 NM south-southwest of Manila, Philippines. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts deep convection developing over a region of mid to upper level turning with tight surface troughing. A 0221z TRMM image indicates that the convection has started to wrap towards the center of the mid-level turning. Upper level analysis indicates a point source providing good outflow with moderate to high vertical wind shear hampering development.


Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1010 mb. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.


---
CMC has a developing typhoon this weekend.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I find this a little strange.......NOT SURE EL NINO is coming....could this play a trick and go back to La Nina.......not saying thats happening but, this is strange as the waters have actually cooled off South America and moving West...HUM....



Just as El Nino surprised them in 06, La Nina can surprise in 09. Seems to have been flipping back and fourth quite readily the past several years with no real rhyme or reason.
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You all gotta see this gator posted....WOW!
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Quoting Acemmett90:

yah i know did you see the recent image from the met 9 its not looking good


I did not see that but, rarely look at others forecast...other than a glance.
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Tropical Update
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Quoting kmanislander:
919. moonlightcowboy 12:52 PM GMT on June 09, 2009


Good morning to you too. No swirls out there today. Just the usual wait and see which is typical for June.

Of interest to me is the fact that the EPAC has been very slow out of the gate. Where this has happened in prior years we have seen a few corresponding periods of higher than average activity in the Atlantic. Something else to watch for.


Good Morning All...Good Point K...Might be related to the MJO as it travels across the Pacific towards the Atlantic Basin...Very active in EPAC is usually quiet in our parts and vice versa when the MJO moves into the Gomex/Caribbean ........This year, nothing of significance has happened yet in the EPAC leaving us wondering when something is finally going to pop somewhere.....
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Heres why look at the MJO uplift of Moisture into the Caribbean on days 6-10....seldom do you get that kind of uplift without something developing.......RARELY! So its coming!

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956. beell
LOL, Taz.
Central Time vs Pacific!
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Quoting Acemmett90:

Make that 4-7 days after looking at the met 9 loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-rb.html


Forming in 7 days named on the 10th day!
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interesting blowup off of Georgia? and caribbean blob getting interesting again as well

Link
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Quoting Vortex95:
its el ninao.


LOL
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First Name storm coming in about 10 days!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
tell La Nina to take a hike i dont want other La Nina winter


Taz i don't think we are going to see much of El Nino this summer just looking at that graphic..Strange..
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tell La Nina to take a hike i dont want other La Nina winter
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I find this a little strange.......NOT SURE EL NINO is coming....could this play a trick and go back to La Nina.......not saying thats happening but, this is strange as the waters have actually cooled off South America and moving West...HUM....

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all bout most watch box will be PDS today i can feel it
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My Blog for anyone who wants to look at it.
Link
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943. IKE
I think 91E is about R I P.....sad looking...lonely...

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942. IKE
Quoting P451:
Lots of lightning.

Link

It's been rumbling away for hours. Still seeing flashes all over.


Ring of fire around the heat dome.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting kmanislander:
919. moonlightcowboy 12:52 PM GMT on June 09, 2009


Good morning to you too. No swirls out there today. Just the usual wait and see which is typical for June.

Of interest to me is the fact that the EPAC has been very slow out of the gate. Where this has happened in prior years we have seen a few corresponding periods of higher than average activity in the Atlantic. Something else to watch for.


Morning everyone.......I was thinking exactly the same Kman.....Don't know if that will hold true this year but, very strange how the Pacific is very spooky quite.....i Don't like it!
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up down up down
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Overcast and lots of thunder and lightning this morning again.
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The pressure drop is normal and back on the rise now. 3 day trend is lower though, tomorrow will be the day to look, IMO.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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