Vortex2 tornado study finally gets some twisters to study

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:56 PM GMT on June 08, 2009

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A proven way to reduce the incidence of dangerous weather phenomena is to schedule a multi-million dollar field experiment to study the phenomena. Up until this past weekend, that has certainly been true of this year's $10 million Vortex2 tornado study. The 7-week study (which also runs next year) has deployed an armada of over 100 storm chasing vehicles across the Great Plains this Spring, but has largely been frustrated by an exceptionally quiet tornado season. Tornado activity in May was less than half of what was observed last year in May, thanks to a ridge of high pressure that has dominated the weather. The residents of Tornado Alley ran out of luck over the weekend, though, as a strong low pressure system and associated cold front brought severe weather and multiple tornadoes to the region. Sixteen tornado reports were received by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center yesterday, and three on Friday. The team of University of Michigan students that has been writing our featured Vortex2 blog caught some excellent pictures of tornadoes on both Friday and Sunday. Yesterday was probably the last best chance for the Vortex2 project to document a strong tornado, since the project ends this Saturday and no significant tornado outbreaks appear likely for the remainder of this week.

Aurora, Colorado tornado yesterday
A tornado with a 3/4 mile wide debris cloud swept through Aurora, Colorado yesterday, staying on the ground for 8 - 11 miles and damaging a shopping mall, but causing no deaths or injuries. The tornado passed close to one of the high-resolution Terminal Doppler Weather Radars (TDWRs) that we now feature on our web site (see the radar FAQ for more details on these great new additions to our radar offerings). Posted below are the reflectivity and Doppler velocity images from the tornado, showing the amazing fine-scale details these high-resolution radars offer.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) from the Denver, Colorado Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), which caught the classic signature of a supercell thunderstorm tornado over Aurora, Colorado. A tornado dropped down from the low-level mesocyclone inside the parent supercell thunderstorm at the time of these images. Yellow colors located right next to greens/blues indicate that winds are moving towards and away from the radar in close proximity, the signature of strong rotation at low levels. Also visible on the plot are the winds spreading out from a downdraft on the rear side of the tornado. Black arrows denote the direction of wind flow. The dryline was bent back into a E-W orientation near Denver, creating an area of moisture convergence, which triggered thunderstorm formation.

Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week
As area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean has brought rains of 2 - 3 inches over portions of Nicaragua and Honduras over the past few days. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and no computer models are indicating that the disturbance will develop this week.

Jeff Masters, with help from wunderground's tornado expert, Dr. Rob Carver

Dying out after an official 24 minutes on the ground
Tornado (Fungus)
Tornado
Twisted (rrose1)
This was taken approximately 30 minutes after a brief tornado passed through South Hutchinson, KS tonight. The building is a bus manufacturing facility.
Twisted

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convection is really trying to refire

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1236. gator23
1233.

!!! I must have missed that!
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1235. gator23

Quoting clwstmchasr:


Quoting clwstmchasr:
I guess I got caught up in the excitment of a potential system that everyone here was talking about instead of paying attention to the few who really know what they are talking about.


Patience. Patience
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1234. vortfix
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
214 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009


PATTERN EVOLUTION-FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IN THIS AREA THE MODELS DISAGREE ON RISK
OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A SMALL CYCLONE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND IN INTERACTION
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE GFS
FORECASTS THIS SYSTEM TO RETAIN ITS INTEGRITY WHILE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMAICA THROUGH 36-42 HRS. THE GFS THEN
FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO STALL. THE NAM INITIALLY FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR EVOLUTION...THEN FORECASTS THE LOW TO MIGRATE WEST TO
SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 78 HRS. THE ECMWF FAILS TO
INITIALIZE THE LOW...AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY 54-60 HRS. THIS SYSTEM IS IN A HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THAT IT MIGHT
SURVIVE/INTENSIFY AT THE PACE THE GFS/NAM INDICATE. CONDITIONS
MIGHT BE MORE FAVORABLE AFTER 48/60 HRS WHEN THE UPPER LOW CUTS
OFF AND THE INFLOW OF COLD AIR ALOFT STARTS TO WANE.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST HONDURAS WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. MOST INTENSE IS
EXPECTED OVER WATER...AND AS THE WEAK VORTEX MIGRATES TOWARDS
JAMAICA THROUGH 36 HRS IT WILL FAVOR A SURGE IN ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...BETWEEN 24-60 HRS...WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 20-40MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 150-250MM TO AFFECT JAMAICA... HAITIAN PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA. CONVECTION MIGHT PERSIST INTO DAY
03...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON INTENSITY/INTEGRITY OF
THE SURFACE CYCLONE. WE ARE GOING FOR HEAVY RAINS ON DAY 03...AS A
WORST CASE SCENARIO...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE
MAXIMA WILL PERSIST AT 150-250MM...WITH POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING
TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH...AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA...SUSTAINS THE NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF
THE ITCZ INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ
MEANDERS EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...WHILE THE
EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GUIANAS-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA-NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH DAY 03.
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Quoting gator23:


You mean JFV

he admitted it
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1232. gator23
Quoting Vortex95:
Yo Ikesta u concur with Weather Students observations?


You mean JFV
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
you can make it bigger if you want :)


Try "Enzyte"....


LOL...personally recommended, Doug? I don't recall you with that type of permanent smile...
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Quoting Vortex95:


I remember when I was in Las Vegas in June it got up to 115 one day. Man was it hot.


The Las Vegas high desert is many hundreds of miles from our high desert in northern New Mexico.

The difference in climate between the two is as disparate as the distance separating them.



ROCKHOUND ALERT!

The missus and I are producing a new American Rockhound episode for YouTube this weekend. Our adventure begins south of Albuquerque, NM [See Figure 1.]


Figure 1: Rio Puerco Valley - South of Albuquerque, NM

The areas in white are not snow! This area is actually a prehistoric beach and it is loaded with petrified wood, jaspar and fossils washed down eons ago when the shallow, inland sea drained 25 million years ago during the upheaval.

We'll search this area the morning of 6/12/2009 and then move to an area 150 miles north [See Figure 2.]


Figure 2: Jemez Mountains / Copper-infused Area - East of Cuba, NM

We'll camp in this area the evening of 6/12 and then explore the region on 6/13. This is the location where all the Rio Puerco material originated. We're expecting to find amazing specimens of petrified wood that has been not only agatized, but also infused with copper.

This will be a must-see show on YouTube.

I hope each of you have as great a weekend as we'll have here exploring nature's wonders!

CycloneOz---
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Flood, humidity is only at 25%? Wow, that's a nice day. Now if it was 95 and 65%+ humitidy that would suck! :o)


Lol. Its 90 with 61% humidity. Winds gusting out of SSE at 19. Actually not too bad for this time of year. At least we have a breeze. Usually in the summer we...uh let me rephrase that...in the summer we used to pray for so much as a breeze to stir this soup around and couldnt get a breath of wind. God sure has a sense of humor. Lol. 3 hurricanes and 4 named storms in 3 years. He showed us wind! Lol. And this deep in SE TX we don't usually get the dry winds off the plains. But earlier this year we were dry enough for a fire warning. And the locals said we are needing rain again already. Thats not unusual for summer though. Ick! Gonna be a long hot one ahead.
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Jeffs, by the way, I'm an Arizona native. I LOVE the heat, it is the humidity that I can't stand. We are in the 100's several times a year here in Utah as well, but it is no where near as bad as TX since it is a dry heat.

I'm the same way. I was born in northern Colorado (Greeley, to be exact), and lived there for 8 years. I loved the dry heat up there. Down here in the Houston area... bleh. In dry heat, when you sweat, it actually does something. In humid heat, like Houston, when you sweat, it just makes you stink.

Last week there was actually a couple of days where it hit 90, but the humidity was abnormally low, and I was astonished how nice it felt. (it had been a while since it was last hot and dry here)

I still miss my mountains, though.
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1226. Levi32


Quoting clwstmchasr:
Throughout the day I've been watching the visible satellite loops for the disturbance off the Nicaraguan coast in the Western Caribbean. As the day has progressed, it has become evident that some mid-level circulation has developed, but it now appears that even the circulation has been struggling through the early afternoon in the face of rather strong wind shear. Will continue to watch this disturbance since some computer models continue to suggest more favorable conditions coming down the road in about 4 to 5 days.

I thought 4 to 5 days ago that the models suggested that conditions would become more favorable for development in 4 to 5 days.


That's actually untrue. The GFS alone was being erratic forecasting development around this time 4-5 days ago under hostile upper-level winds. The other global models, even the GFS, 4-5 days ago were predicting unfavorable conditions until 10-15 days from then, which is 5-10 days from now.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Floodman:


I'm in DFW: 95, humidity about 25%, light convection oven winds turning the yard into wicker...it's Texas, man, what did you expect?


SE winds and seabreeze storms off the Gulf
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Jeffs, by the way, I'm an Arizona native. I LOVE the heat, it is the humidity that I can't stand. We are in the 100's several times a year here in Utah as well, but it is no where near as bad as TX since it is a dry heat.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
Throughout the day I've been watching the visible satellite loops for the disturbance off the Nicaraguan coast in the Western Caribbean. As the day has progressed, it has become evident that some mid-level circulation has developed, but it now appears that even the circulation has been struggling through the early afternoon in the face of rather strong wind shear. Will continue to watch this disturbance since some computer models continue to suggest more favorable conditions coming down the road in about 4 to 5 days.

I thought 4 to 5 days ago that the models suggested that conditions would become more favorable for development in 4 to 5 days.


You make a valid point. Been skeptical about the computer models thus far this hurricane season and continue to be, but I report what I see unless it seems too unrealistic or doesn't have any support.
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What is the odds we will see a named system by early to mid week out of the "blob" area.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Actually, its not that bad. You just go from an air conditioned house to an air conditioned car to an air conditioned office... and back. You only have to deal with the heat for a few minutes at a time, and when you have a heart attack upon getting your electric bill.

Jeffs, I know, I lived there for years. Four of my seven kids were born there. I could never get them to play outside in the summer for some reason :o)
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Now if it was 95 and 65%+ humitidy that would suck! :o)

Actually, its not that bad. You just go from an air conditioned house to an air conditioned car to an air conditioned office... and back. You only have to deal with the heat for a few minutes at a time, and when you have a heart attack upon getting your electric bill.
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:
can we expect more rain and wind in Jamaica

got my answer:

NEWS RELEASE

Monday 08, 2009 – 5:00 p.m

*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL PARISHES ***

The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes until 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

A persistent Trough over the Caribbean continues to influence weather conditions over Jamaica. Today the island experience cloudy conditions with periods of showers affecting mainly western parishes. A strong Tropical Wave currently east of Jamaica is expected to interact with this Trough tomorrow.

Consequently, a significant increase in showers and thunderstorms which may be heavy at times is expected across the island tomorrow through Thursday. Flash flooding of low lying and flood prone areas is therefore expected.

Fishers and other marine interests are advised to exercise caution as gusty winds and rough seas may be encountered in areas of showers and thunderstorms north and south of the island.


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.
vtj/lpb
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Doing good and really glad I'm in a state with no humidity :o) I couldn't stand it when I lived there. You'd walk outside and melt!

We are super cool here so far for the year, I haven't had to turn my A/C on once. Usually I have it on in mid May, but I've got cool temps for at least another week. We've gotten so much rain my lawn is growing thousands of mushrooms!
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Flood, humidity is only at 25%? Wow, that's a nice day. Now if it was 95 and 65% humitidy that would suck! :o)


I lived in New Orleans for four years and I grew up in St Louis; yep, that's a nice day...I love it when the weatherman here says "Humidity is going to be brutal today, 30% or thereabouts". Try 95 at 80%///LOL

So how are you, DL?
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Bastardi's "Year without a summer"?...Nope:

Mostly Hype
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Quoting Floodman:


I'm in DFW: 95, humidity about 25%, light convection oven winds turning the yard into wicker...it's Texas, man, what did you expect?

Flood, humidity is only at 25%? Wow, that's a nice day. Now if it was 95 and 65%+ humitidy that would suck! :o)
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Got a friggin blow dryer going on here in TX. Hot in the 90s and 20 mph winds out of the S and SW. Drought conditions spreading rapidly again and moving into SE TX. And to top it off the damn mosquitos are still out in full force. Crazy man.


I'm in DFW: 95, humidity about 25%, light convection oven winds turning the yard into wicker...it's Texas, man, what did you expect?
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can we expect more rain and wind in Jamaica
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Got a friggin blow dryer going on here in TX. Hot in the 90s and 20 mph winds out of the S and SW. Drought conditions spreading rapidly again and moving into SE TX. And to top it off the damn mosquitos are still out in full force. Crazy man.

Welcome to SE Texas? Its going to be like that for the next 3-4 months, might as well get used to it.

On the subject of blog font size... when I typed up my latest entry (a personal review of Hurricane Ike's impacts, 9 months later) on Sunday, it was in the smaller font. (both here at work on IE6, and at home, on Firefox 3) Now, it is in the larger font here at work (haven't looked from home today). But... the comments are still in the smaller font.
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coming at me...
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Howdy, Amy, DestinJeff...folks...
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1206. NRAamy
Just say "poot".....

;)
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Bastardi is worried about a hurricane on the eastern seaboard? Let me guess...the Northeast is especially vulnerable???
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1203. Ossqss
Quoting Vortex95:
Orca how dare you call me a grumpy old man!!!

They are not pleased



Humm, if I had to guess who that was in the picture, I would say Tampa and Orca when they were younger :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
you can make it bigger if you want :)


Try "Enzyte"....
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Gasp.. I see a weather phenomena coming on... yup.. there it is... poof.


Careful, Orca, my friend...that word can get you into a lot of trouble around here...seems some trolls have thin skins...LMAO

By the way, it's all in the follow through:

*POOF!*

LOL
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Quoting Orcasystems:
you can make it bigger if you want :)


Can you email how to use different font size. By the way, the font size on my blog and how others see it is larger. I would of preferred the old size.

Thanks
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1199. vortfix
Ya gotta love the tropics in June:



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES
MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 55W...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE TROUGH CRESTING AT 34N65W. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE WED AND PUSH THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS BECOMING MORE POSITIVE TILT...ROUGHLY
ORIENTATED NE TO SW FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDDAY
THU. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC DISSECT THIS TROUGH EARLIER THAN SOME
OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF TAKES THIS OPPORTUNITY TO
DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE THE CMC
MOVES THE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THAT REGION SLOWLY OFF TO THE W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH...PREFER TO AVOID SOLUTIONS THAT QUICKLY BREAK
DOWN THE TROUGH. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT SOME OF THE CARIBBEAN
ENERGY WILL BE STEERED NORTHWARD INTO THE SW N ATLC. THE NAM IS
THE BEST OF THE 00Z AND 06Z MODELS WITH THE INITIALIZATION OF
THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING INTO EASTERN CUBA AT THE MOMENT. IT
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS ENERGY...UNLIKE A NUMBER
OF THE OTHER MODELS WHICH PREFER TO DEVELOP SOMETHING IN THE
BAHAMAS. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS THE NORTHERN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 74W FUJIWARA-ING WITH THE
ENERGY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING THE
SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST IN THIS PART OF ITS FORECAST. FOR
NOW...PAINTED A BROAD BRUSH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. WENT WITH A
MORE PROGRESSIVE S TO N SOLUTION MOVING ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH...MORE LIKE THE NAM...AND ALLOWED SOME
TROUGHING TO BEGIN LIFTING N FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE
GULF BY SAT...MOST LIKE THE NOGAPS.

E TRADES HAVE PICKED UP TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W
ACCORDING TO THE 1054 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE
TODAY/TONIGHT THEN WINDS MAY BECOME E TO SE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE RETRACTING E AS
THE BROAD TROUGH FORMS NEAR THEN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W IS EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG 45W THU AND
55W SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN ACCOMPANIED
BY 15-20 KT NE-SE WIND SHIFT.

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Throughout the day I've been watching the visible satellite loops for the disturbance off the Nicaraguan coast in the Western Caribbean. As the day has progressed, it has become evident that some mid-level circulation has developed, but it now appears that even the circulation has been struggling through the early afternoon in the face of rather strong wind shear. Will continue to watch this disturbance since some computer models continue to suggest more favorable conditions coming down the road in about 4 to 5 days.
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Ugh I'll be back IE8 is giving me problems again

this time tabs won't close when I want them to >:(
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Got a friggin blow dryer going on here in TX. Hot in the 90s and 20 mph winds out of the S and SW. Drought conditions spreading rapidly again and moving into SE TX. And to top it off the damn mosquitos are still out in full force. Crazy man.


Ah...life in the high desert! :)

You cannot beat the comfort! :)

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Quoting Vortex95:
Orca how dare you call me a grump old man!!!

They are not pleased



Who me.. call you a grumpy old man... now where would I ever get an idea like that :P

I would ask for a show of hands.. but it could be dangerous :)
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More like slow days of no rain
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1189. Makoto1
Ah, thanks guys. I'll be sure to get things better with the input on there. I'll be working on my posts and hopefully get better over time.

I love how we're talking about this, slow day for sure.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Got a friggin blow dryer going on here in TX. Hot in the 90s and 20 mph winds out of the S and SE. Drought conditions spreading rapidly again and moving into SE TX. And to top it off the damn mosquitos are still out in full force. Crazy man.


I know what's with the mosquitoes here they are out even during the day O_o I thought they only come out at night

Jogging around here is not only murder due to the heat but also them >:(
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Quoting Hurricane4Lex:


You can also change the text size by pressing and holding the ctrl button while using your mouse wheel


IBD, it worked
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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