Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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717. beell
694.
Been there all day.

Been there prior to June 1.
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latest hurricane sector ir goes 12 image
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting kmanislander:


Take a good look at the WV loop. There is a TUTT digging to the SW creating diffluent conditions for that blob.

There is a shear zone to the NW of Honduras stretching into the NW Caribbean across Cuba. Been there all day.

WV Loop showing favourable conditions for convection to blow up in the SW Caribbean


TUTT can actually help cyclone genesis

Link
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
extreme...good to see you again...(I'm the guy who always asked you last season if a wave coming off of Africa would ruin my weekend two weeks later)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
What ya puffing on there keep?

LOL
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The Great POOF
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Yup, that second map that you just posted automatically killed any hope of this thing developing, at least as far as the short immediate term would go, now the long term of things, that's clearly up for debate to say the very least.


Pretty rare for a map to kill hope for development wouldnt you say?
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Yup, that second map that you just posted automatically killed any hope of this thing developing, at least as far as the short immediate term would go, now the long term of things, that's clearly up for debate to say the very least.


I'd argue that long-term chances for tropical cyclogenesis are equally slim.
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Puff the magic "test floater blob" lived in the sea...then went "poof"
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
703. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this may poof just as fast as it puff


Heck of a puff.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Guys, please, chill out, it's only an insignificant ball of convection, what's the big deal in reference to it?


Its just interesting to see such strong convective activity.
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Duffy's is very popular down here. Their recent specials and promotions are going down very well!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
Calm down JFV...whatever develops will need a lot of time.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
this may poof just as fast as it puff
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Duffy's on Forest Hill

In Boynton Beach right?I never been there only in Boca.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


This feature is lifting off to the NE correct?


Take a good look at the WV loop. There is a TUTT digging to the SW creating diffluent conditions for that blob.

There is a shear zone to the NW of Honduras stretching into the NW Caribbean across Cuba. Been there all day.

WV Loop showing favourable conditions for convection to blow up in the SW Caribbean
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Two things that about this blowup off Nicaragua:
Upper level divergence is high:


850mb vorticity isn't very high at all:
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Duffy's on Forest Hill
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
I go to Duffy's with my parents at the Boca Mall everytime and we may be going this weekend.Cool place.
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Just in case someone else needed it.

TUTT
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The blob in the western Caribbean looks pretty impressive, but is also under a good amount of shear (look at the cloud tops streaming off to the NE). Its going to have to keep things up for a few days before it can get much going - shear is forecast to be nasty for a couple of more days.

Also, I posted a personal recap of the lasting impacts of Ike... its long, but check it out. You might learn something (aside from the fact that I type too much)
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Hi Storm

Not as much bite to that blow up as would appear at first blush. Something to watch for the moment.
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yes kman we are coming up on 8 hrs now if it maintains for another 12 hrs ya we may have something
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting Acemmett90:

no but my dad owns Duffys Have you heard of it he just likes me to look at these blogs to see if somthings comming


I know Duffy's there are a few of them around S. Florida right?
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting StormW:
667. kmanislander 10:37 PM EDT on June 07, 2009
There is a strong NE jet in the NW Caribbean that is producing diffluent conditions in the SW Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. This is aiding the blow up of convection that we are seeing there.



Enter...the TUTT (FL to Central America)

WIND SHEAR



This feature is lifting off to the NE correct?
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IT'S AN
Quoting Acemmett90:
AHHHHHHHHHHHH Crap Just Got off The Plane and i see This


IT'S AN EYE EVERYONE...SCATTER!...not.
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My nephew works at a Duffy's down here. He needs a raise!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
Quoting Acemmett90:

no but my dad owns Duffys Have you heard of it he just likes me to look at these blogs to see if somthings comming


Really? That's a pretty good restaurant.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
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668. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


You go to Palm Beach every weekend?? Good Lord...are you a millionaire?

I'm lucky if I can afford the week's groceries.


LOL.

I went to Wal-Mart today:(
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
There is a strong NE jet in the NW Caribbean that is producing diffluent conditions in the SW Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. This is aiding the blow up of convection that we are seeing there.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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