Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

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An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
No need to apologize....I wish you the best...but like others have stated earlier, you should have just come out and said you were JFV instead of misleading us. Not a big deal.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The "blob" actually looks more impressive than 91 E


91 E doesn't have cloudtops which are quite as cold, but it does have some banding features and indications of good outflow (the "feathering" at the cloud edges).
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Quoting Acemmett90:

would be bad but just alot of rain how about the storm in lake worth today the thunder shook the house


You another Lake Worth / Palm Springs blogger? I think we rule tonight!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
No need to apologize....I wish you the best...but like others earlier, you should have just come out and said you were JFV instead of misleading us. Not a big deal.


I must've missed this memo.
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758. ackee
any one think the convection in the sw carrb will be an invest ?
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1376
if it was august i would already be warning of a T.C.F.A.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
No need to apologize....I wish you the best...but like others earlier, you should have just come out and said you were JFV instead of misleading us. Not a big deal.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
wait till august
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
The "blob" actually looks more impressive than 91 E
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Geez Keeeper..could you imagine if that was off the Gulf or Fla. coasts?
it would'nt be pretty
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Even though I joked with you a lot last season...you were always leved-headed about what was going on...Other bloggers, pay attention to Extreme when he posts. (Not to much pressure on you)


I definatly am going to try to take a bit more conservative approach to things this year. It can be too easy to get caught up in certain systems, be they invests or cyclones. Still out to learn more though :)
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Geez Keeeper..could you imagine if that was off the Gulf or Fla. coasts?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
also honduras:

http://www.smn.gob.hn/web/
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I found the Nicaragua met service website:
http://www.ineter.gob.ni/
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Even though I joked with you a lot last season...you were always leved-headed about what was going on...Other bloggers, pay attention to Extreme when he posts. (Not to much pressure on you)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
you too extreme...always looked forward to your posts


I've been trying to find more time to spend on the blog, but I've been busy with some other things that have kept me from spending hours of time on the blog like last year.
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you too extreme...always looked forward to your posts
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I've witnessed many of Tropical Storm that would give their right nut to have convection like that.


Amen to that.
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JFV…you are going to school for meteorology….are you implanting on this blog what you have learned? All of us rookies would like to learn something from those who are actually studying the subject.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Good Night all! will check in at work tomm
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting IKE:


Heck of a puff.


I've witnessed many of Tropical Storm that would give their right nut to have convection like that.
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Quoting Acemmett90:

Hey you trying to copy me lol jk

lol
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
extreme...good to see you again...(I'm the guy who always asked you last season if a wave coming off of Africa would ruin my weekend two weeks later)


Ah hey lol...good to see you
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later stormw
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Here is a wv view of the caribbean

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Precipitable water off the charts now in our AOI. Note the tropical wave approaching, and another emerging off of Africa at a higher latitude.
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Quoting Ossqss:
Hummm, am I seeing this model right?


LOL. Nice pic there.
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Quoting kmanislander:
As I suspected QS missed the area tonight but from what I can see off the coast of Nicaragua there is no rotation at the surface.

Will check back in the morning. Good night all.

Descending Quikscat pass this evening
night kman keep yer eyes to the skies friend
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting extreme236:


Pretty rare for a map to kill hope for development wouldnt you say?

Normally, yes. But short and medium term, a storm needs vorticity at all levels to really get going, most importantly at the surface. With higher near-surface vorticity levels found in places like the great plains.. I'm not holding my breath. The blob is being held together more by upper level divergence and a bit of instability, rather than anything tropical in nature.
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Hummm, am I seeing this model right?

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Quoting hahaguy:
What ya puffing on there keep?

LOL
whatever ya got
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
I guess we're all poofcasters
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182


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I thought, I noticed on the latest wvapor the upper lows might be starting to move eastward. Which may reduce shear in Caribbean in a few days.
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As I suspected QS missed the area tonight but from what I can see off the coast of Nicaragua there is no rotation at the surface.

Will check back in the morning. Good night all.

Descending Quikscat pass this evening
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717. beell
694.
Been there all day.

Been there prior to June 1.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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